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Long Term Forecasts 1946 - 2020 Based on SARB Investment Data Dr Johan Snyman

MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building Economists Tel: (021) 881-3887 PO Box 7119 Fax: (021) 881-3887 STELLENBOSCH, 7599 E-mail: mfa@iafrica.com. Long Term Forecasts 1946 - 2020 Based on SARB Investment Data Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH

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Long Term Forecasts 1946 - 2020 Based on SARB Investment Data Dr Johan Snyman

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  1. MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building Economists Tel: (021) 881-3887 PO Box 7119 Fax: (021) 881-3887 STELLENBOSCH, 7599 E-mail: mfa@iafrica.com Long Term Forecasts 1946 - 2020 Based on SARB Investment Data Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH 2 April 2013

  2. Introduction The South African Reserve Bank has released their first estimates of data of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (aka Investment). Now that we have the 2012 investment figures, we need to revise our earlier forecasts because the base from which we forecast has changed. These revised forecasts are based on the following considerations: Interest rates are expected to stay low in 2013/14, but are expected to rise in 2015. This could have negative knock-on effects on building demand levels during 2016/17 Income levels are expected to keep pace with general inflation – a positive Consumers’ debt levels are still high – a negative for residential demand The economic growth rate is expected to accelerate in 2014/15 and slow down in 2016/17. This will impact on the non-residential sector Construction works (CW) is expected to drop in coming years from an historic high point because of the completion of several mega-projects (Gautrain, Fifa stadiums, three new airports, many roadbuilding projects), already included in peak figures Nevertheless, CW demand could still be three times the 2000 level and could recover from 2016 because of continued public infrastructural spending

  3. Thank you for your attention … Johan Snyman mfa@iafrica.com

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