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Third Quarter 2004 Financial Results. Safe Harbor Statement.
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Third Quarter 2004 Financial Results
Safe Harbor Statement This Investor Presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions and typically can be identified by the use of words such as “expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “forecast,” “plan,” “believe” and similar terms. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, expected earnings, future growth and financial performance, the sufficiency of the disputed claims reserve, the successful closing of announced transactions, the successful refinancing of our credit agreement, the successful closing of coal transportation agreements, the successful implementation of our acquisition and repowering strategy, and the EBITDA impact of the RMR settlement. Although NRG believes that its expectations are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual results may vary materially. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated above include, among others, general economic conditions, hazards customary in the power industry, competition in wholesale power markets, the volatility of energy and fuel prices, failure of customers to perform under contracts, changes in the wholesale power markets and related government regulation, the condition of capital markets generally, our ability to access capital markets, unanticipated outages at generation facilities, our ability to convert facilities to western coal, our substantial indebtedness and the possibility that we may incur additional indebtedness, adverse results in current and future litigation, delays in or failure to meet closing conditions in announced transactions, failure to identify or successfully implement acquisitions and repowerings, the amount of proceeds from asset sales and failure to obtain FERC approval of the RMR settlement. NRG undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The adjusted EBITDA guidance is an estimate as of November 9, 2004 and is based on assumptions believed to be reasonable as of that date. NRG disclaims any current intention to update such guidance from November 9, 2004. The foregoing review of factors that could cause NRG’s actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward-looking statements included in this Investor Presentation should be considered in connection with information regarding risks and uncertainties that may affect NRG's future results included in NRG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov.
Agenda • Third Quarter Overview • Financial Highlights • Operating Performance Review • Portfolio Management • International • Current Focus • Financial Results Review • 3rd Quarter and YTD Results • Liquidity Update • Capital Allocation Plan • Questions and Answers
Financial Highlights • Third quarter performance • Adjusted EBITDA of $272 million • Net cash flow of $284 million • YTD performance • Adjusted EBITDA of $762 million • Net cash flow of $554 million • Liquidity increased nearly $450 million to $1.6 billion • Net Debt/Capital Ratio1 • Improved to 50% from 60% since the beginning of 2004 1 Excludes $200 million in operating cash and Kendall
Q3 Operating Highlights • South Central generation was 27% higher in Q3 2004 than Q3 2003 due to strong performance from Big Cajun 2 • Northeast generation was down 22% due to milder weather which limited runtimes at our intermediate and peaking facilities Equivalent Availability – is the total available hours a unit is available in a year minus the summation of all partial outage events in a year converted to Equivalent Hours (EH) where EH is partial megawatts lost divided by unit Net Available Capacity times hours of each event and the net of these hours is divided by hours in a year to achieve Equivalent Availability Factor in percent.
2004 Gross Margin 1 Dark spread is the spread between energy prices and coal-fired generation costs 2 Does not include LaGen contracted output • In Q3, gross margin from dual fuel and coal fired generation impacted by mild weather • No generation from Oswego • Norwalk Harbor responsible for majority of dual fuel/oil gross margin
Portfolio Management-2004 Noncore Asset Sales • Sold for value • Minimal proceeds leakage to advisors • Minimal tax leakage Actual or expected cash proceeds (Millions) Balance Sheet Debt (Millions) Name Status Location Calpine Cogen Various, U.S. $3 N/A Completed Q1 PERC Maine $18 $25 Completed Q2 Loy Yang A Australia $27 N/A Completed Q2 Cobee Bolivia $50 $24 Completed Q2 Hsin Yu Taiwan N/A $45 Completed Q2 McClain Oklahoma N/A $157 Completed Q3 Batesville Mississippi $27 $292 Completed Q3 NEO Projects Various $12 N/A Completed Q3 CALP Virginia $14 N/A Executed PSA Kendall Illinois $1 $450 Executed PSA James River Virginia $4 N/A Executed PSA Itiquira Brazil $? ? Sale in Progress Enfield U.K. N/A Sale in Progress $? Saguaro Nevada N/A Sale in Progress $? TOTAL $156 $993
Portfolio Management - Connecticut Reached Settlement with CT Authorities related to RMR: • Settlement with multiple CT parties eliminates refund risk • Settlement provides for 2004 and 2005 certainty • Effectively bridges us to scheduled LICAP introduction by 1/1/06 1 Devon 7 deactivated 10/1/2004, Devon 8 deactivated 6/1/2004
Portfolio Management - California No solution yet, but progress is being made. Signals are positive: • CPUC ordered acceleration of excess reserve requirements from 1/1/08 to 6/1/06 • RMR status for Cabrillo I and Cabrillo II successfully extended through 2005 • Additional requests for offer have been initiated by California’s LSE in recent weeks • Veto of AB2006, support for AB57, pro-competition appointments to CAISO, Interim Procurement Order (7/8/04) from CPUC
International - Australia NRG Facilities Gladstone Flinders Adelaide What value added does our Australian portfolio provide? • Significant, predominately contracted, EBITDA • Properly functioning market, countercyclical to U.S regional markets • Portfolio dominated by low-in-the-merit-order black coal plants • Operations know-how, technical and commercial, across the portfolio • Ability to dividend cash to parent through refinancing
Current Focus: Wrap up of Back to Basics First 100 Days 11/11 Second 100 Days 12/15 Third 100 Days ?/16 Operational Priorities Operational Priorities Operational Priorities 1. Safe, reliable, efficient 1. Summer Operations 1. Winter operation preparedness 2.Increase contracted portionof merchant generation 2.Advance contract positionfor winter ’04-’05 2.Hedge gas exposure 3. Maintain momentum inasset sale program 3. Sell Kendall 3. Itiquira and Enfield X 4. Resolve Connecticut 4. Resolve California 4. Resolve California 5. Process control cost savings initiative 6. Implement coal strategy Financial Priorities Financial Priorities Financial Priorities 1. Simplify cap structure 1. 2004 Guidance 1. Address senior debt facility 2.Enhance liquidity 2.Capital Allocation strategy 2.File S-4 3. Reduce borrowing cost 3. CAPEX approval template 3. Internal audit plan 2005 X 4. Internal audit plan 2005 4. Sarbanes-Oxley compliance 5. Risk Mgmt self-assessment Organizational Priorities Organizational Priorities Organizational Priorities 1. New CFO 1. Hire key staff 1. Complete PMI transition 2. Phase-out of advisers 2. Function specific transition plan 2. Succession Plan X 3. Redirect mgmt team 3. 3rd party advisor cost control 3. 3rd party advisor cost control 4. Restructure corp org 4. Incentive compensation scheme 4. Comp. scheme detailed roll out Strategic Priorities Strategic Priorities 1. Regional strategic plans 1. Translate strategic plan into 2005 budget 2. Germany & Australia 2. New business/brownfield strategy
Current Focus – Hedging Active hedging program focused on 4 key drivers: Oil spark spreads remain volatile, driven by weather and natural gas prices Coal dark spreads currently high – driven by natural gas-related increase in power prices Gas spark spreads very compressed and not attractive at current levels Coal portfolio leveraging scale and flexibility
Current Focus – HedgingNYC Gas Spark Spread: Winter/Summer ‘05 On-Peak Summer2005 Winter2005 Spark spreads have compressed with rising natural gas prices and do not represent attractive hedging opportunities at current market levels Note: Indicative spark spread trend using Transco Z6 NY @ 10 mmbtu/Mwh heat rate
Current Focus – HedgingNY West Oil Spark Spread: Winter ‘05 On-Peak Winter hedges increased to ~60% Forward oil spark spreads have increased with NG related rise in power prices Spot oil margins are highly dependent on natural gas prices and weather: we are taking a balanced approach. Note: Indicative spark spread on #6 oil 1% @ 12 mmbtu/MWh heat rate
Current Focus – HedgingNY West Dark Spread: Cal ‘05 On-Peak Winter hedges increased to 98% Calendar ‘05 hedges increased to 75% Winter hedged 53% Calendar ‘05 hedged 34% Dark spreads have increased with rising natural gas prices providing favorable hedging opportunities for coal margins Note: Indicative trend for dark spread on coal @ 10 mmbtu/MWh heat rate
Current Focus – HedgingCoal Market Outlook • Coal market dynamics have been challenging • High eastern U.S. coal prices • Transportation congestion • Low stockpiles • We expect strong coal pricing to continue into 2005 • Western U.S. coal has remained relatively stable • These challenges are manageable
Current Focus – Hedging NRG Coal Generation Fleet: 12.5 million tons/year Huntley 760 MW 1.4 MM tons/year Somerset 136 MW 250 k tons/year Dunkirk 600 MW 2.0 MM tons/year Dover 106 MW 70 k tons/year Big Cajun 1489 MW 7.8 MM tons/year Indian River 784 MW 1.0 MM tons/year Reducing reliance on Eastern US Coal
UP BN CSX NS Vessel Barge Current Focus – Hedging Coal Portfolio: Competitive advantage through scale and optionality across the 4 Key Components of Supply Coal strategy must first meet environmental remediation and compliance • The Four Key Components of Coal Supply • Transportation Infrastructure (railcars, barges, vessels) • Transportation Service (railroads, shipping companies) • Coal Storage/Transshipment (Conneaut, ACT, DTA) • Coal Supply (producers and other suppliers)
Current Focus – Hedging Summary • Currently we focus on: • Hedging coal and oil margins opportunistically to allow us to capture recent gas related increases in power prices • Remaining largely unhedged on gas margins to optimize upside swings • Leveraging optionality in coal supply and transportation to minimize delivered cost of fuel • Our positions are never static; we actively manage our portfolio as market conditions change • Our hedging program focuses on balancing upside potential against downside uncertainties.
Key Financial Highlights Operating revenues 607 1,781 Gross margin 342 1,025 Net income 54 167 EBITDA 224 752 Adjusted EBITDA 272 762 $ millions YTD Q3
Liquidity $ millions 12/30/0309/30/04 Unrestricted Cash: Domestic 418 936 International 134 169 Restricted Cash: Domestic 70 94 International 46 55 Total Cash 668 1,254 Letter of Credit Availability 248 97 Revolver Availability 250 250 Total Current Liquidity $1,166 $1,601
Capital Allocation Planning-Threshold Issue • At this point in the Company’s development, the Senior Debt Facility terms and conditions are excessively restrictive, resulting in inefficient allocation of capital
Refinancing Rationale • Improved Pricing: The Company expects pricing to improve significantly, due to improvement in market conditions • Less Restrictive Covenants: The covenants on the new credit facilities will more closely resemble those in the indenture for the existing second priority senior secured notes • Maintain Liquidity: The Company will maintain liquidity through: • $150 million Revolving Credit Facility • $350 million Pre-Funded Letter of Credit Facility • Cash Balances While we have the liquidity, it does not make sense for us simply to repay the facility since it is low cost capital
Capital Allocation Plan-Beyond the Threshold • Maintaining progress towards achieving our target net debt/total capital ratio is fundamental • Objective is to keep substantial, but not excessive, liquidity inside the business • Cost of modifying in a material way the terms of the bond indenture make this option unattractive at this time
2004 Outlook 1Includes $42.4 million of Kendall EBITDA and does not include any costs associated with a potential refinancing
2004 Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Results in the following change to2004 pre-tax income: Factors Sensitivity $1.00/mmbtu $0.7 million Natural Gas Coal $1.00/ton -- Oil $1.00/barrel -- Interest rates 100 bps $2.0 million Sensitivities are for the remaining 3 months of 2004, assuming current hedged positions NRG has substantially hedged operating gross margin for the remainder of the year
Enterprise Value 1 Debt balances do not include Kendall but EBITDA contains $42.4 million from Kendall
Capital Markets Performance Maintaining a balance is good for equity and debt holders Second Priority Notes – Yield to Worst Share Price Performance Second Priority Notes – Spread to Worst NRG’s share price has increased over 40% since exiting from bankruptcy, and the Company’s High-Yield Notes are trading at a yield of 6.2%.
Debt Schedule (US $mm) – 9/30/2004 “S” indicates Supported Project as discussed on Slide 29
Adj. Net Income GAAP Reconciliation Adjusted Net Income Reconciliation The following table summarizes the calculation of adjusted net income and provides a reconciliation to GAAP net income/(loss), including per share amounts:
GAAP Reconciliation EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income are nonGAAP financial measures. These measurements are not recognized in accordance with GAAP and should not be viewed as an alternative to GAAP measures of performance. The presentation of Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income should not be construed as an inference that NRG’s future results will be unaffected by unusual or non-recurring items. EBITDA represents net income before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA is presented because NRG considers it an important supplemental measure of its performance and believes debt-holders frequently use EBITDA to analyze operating performance and debt service capacity. EBITDA has limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider it in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our operating results as reported under GAAP. Some of these limitations are: • EBITDA does not reflect cash expenditures, or future requirements for capital expenditures, or contractual commitments; • EBITDA does not reflect changes in, or cash requirements for, working capital needs; • EBITDA does not reflect the significant interest expense, or the cash requirements necessary to service interest or principal payments, on debts; • Although depreciation and amortization are non-cash charges, the assets being depreciated and amortized will often have to be replaced in the future, and EBITDA does not reflect any cash requirements for such replacements; and • Other companies in this industry may calculate EBITDA differently than NRG does, limiting its usefulness as a comparative measure. Because of these limitations, EBITDA should not be considered as a measure of discretionary cash available to use to invest in the growth of NRG’s business. NRG compensates for these limitations by relying primarily on our GAAP results and using EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA only supplementally. See the statements of cash flow included in the financial statements that are a part of this press release. Adjusted EBITDA is presented as a further supplemental measure of operating performance. Adjusted EBITDA represents EBITDA adjusted for reorganization, restructuring, impairment and corporate relocation charges, discontinued operations, and write downs and losses on the sales of equity method investments; factors which we do not consider indicative of future operating performance. The reader is encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons NRG considers it appropriate for supplemental analysis. As an analytical tool, Adjusted EBITDA is subject to all of the limitations applicable to EBITDA. In addition, in evaluating Adjusted EBITDA, the reader should be aware that in the future NRG may incur expenses similar to the adjustments in this presentation. Similar to Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted net income represents net income adjusted for reorganization, restructuring, impairment and corporate relocation charges, discontinued operations, and write downs and losses on the sales of equity method investments; factors which we do not consider indicative of future operating performance. The reader is encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons NRG considers it appropriate for supplemental analysis. In addition, in evaluating Adjusted net income, the reader should be aware that in the future NRG may incur expenses similar to the adjustments in this presentation.