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Scaling factors that relate human health costs to PM 2.5 exposures using available data

This study analyzes available data to determine scaling factors that relate human health costs to PM2.5 exposures. It explores the incidence and prevalence of diseases related to PM2.5 and establishes a plausible link between exposures and diseases. The study provides a systematic tool to evaluate practical policy decisions.

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Scaling factors that relate human health costs to PM 2.5 exposures using available data

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  1. Scaling factors that relate human health costs to PM 2.5 exposures using available data David R. Brown Sc.D. Environment and Human Health NESCAUM

  2. COST IN $ PROBABILITY OF A LOSS

  3. COST IN $ PROBABILITY OF A LOSS

  4. TOTALCOST IN $ A C B PROBABILITY OF A LOSS

  5. 2 COST IN $ Of ASTHMA hospitalization 1 PROBABILITY OF ASTHMA HOSPITALIZATION in CONNECTICUT

  6. Available scaling information • plausible link between the exposures and disease. • characterization of PM 2.5 exposures • the incidence and prevalence of the diseases related to PM 2.5 • Size of population at risk

  7. Results from the Harvard Six-cities study: All Cause Mortality Rates most exposed to least exposed City Fine Particles • All cause death 1.26 (1.08-1.47) • Lung Cancer 1.37 (0.81-2.31) • Cardio pulmonary 1.37 (1.11-1.68) • Other causes 1.01 (0.79-1.30) • Range of exposure 11-29.6 ug/m3 • Dockery, NEJM 1993; 329: 1753-1759

  8. Health actions from exposures of 2 hours or less. • Peters etal. pm 2.5 & myocardial infarction • 1.48 odds ratio 2 hr after 25ug/m3 increase • 1.69 odds ratio 1 day after 20ug/m3 increase • Gent etal. Severe asthma & O3, pm 2.5 • 35% increase wheeze 1 hr after 50ppb O3 inc. • 47% increase in chest tightness 1 hr after. • 1.24 odds ratio Chest tightness 12-18ug/m3 pm

  9. PM 2.5 New Haven, Hartford and Waterbury (ug/m3)

  10. This 3-month long series of hourly observations would be collapsed to a single value… 9.2 ug/m3… Totally obscuring any “structure” or other “content” within the data set (Carmine Dibattista, CT DEP).(22% of days each year exceed 30 ug/m3 for 6 hours)

  11. 8,264 heart attacks 9,835 Congestive heart failures 3,715 Asthma 8,352 Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases $ 15,858 per heart attack $9,256 per Congestive heart failure admission $ 5,138 per asthma admission $ 6,876 per Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Hospitalizations and costs for Connecticut 1998

  12. Adult diesel soot impacts Bridgeport, Stamford Norwalk • 69 premature deaths • 121 non fatal heart attacks • 1,503 Asthma attacks • 8,820 workdays lost • 46 cases of chronic bronchitis www.cat.us/projects/diersel

  13. O3 and PM2.5 Non-attainment Ozone and PM 2.5 non-attainment

  14. Draft NESCAUM material submitted to EHP/JAWMA

  15. Draft NESCAUM material submitted to EHP/JAWMA

  16. Draft NESCAUM material submitted to EHP/JAWMA

  17. Scale Y axis. $ 10’s MM TOTALCOST IN $ A C B PROBABILITY OF A LOSS Scale X axis; Number of 6 hour episodes that exceed 30 ug/m3

  18. Discussion outcome model $30 MM Scale Y axis. $ 10’s MM Savings TOTALCOST IN $ RISK 5% A C Program costs B 10% 20% 25% PROBABILITY OF A LOSS Scale X axis; Number of 6 hour episodes that exceed 30 ug/m3

  19. SummaryFour things needed are available, • characterization of PM 2.5 exposures, • the incidence and prevalence of the diseases related to PM 2.5, 3) plausible link between the exposures and disease and, 4) a systematic tool to evaluate practical policy decisions

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