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CHAPTER 6 F IXED E XCHENGE R ATES AND F OREIGN E XCHANGE I NTERVENTION

CHAPTER 6 F IXED E XCHENGE R ATES AND F OREIGN E XCHANGE I NTERVENTION. §1 WHY STUDY FIXED EXCHANGE RATES. 1.1Managed floating. 1.2Regional currency arrangements . 1.3Developing countries and countries transition 1.4Lessons of the past for the future.

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CHAPTER 6 F IXED E XCHENGE R ATES AND F OREIGN E XCHANGE I NTERVENTION

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  1. CHAPTER 6FIXED EXCHENGE RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE INTERVENTION

  2. §1 WHY STUDY FIXED EXCHANGE RATES • 1.1Managed floating. • 1.2Regional currency arrangements . • 1.3Developing countries and countries transition • 1.4Lessons of the past for the future

  3. §2 CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION AND THE MONEY SUPPLY • 2.1 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply • 2.2 Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply • 2.3 Sterilization • 2.4 The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply §

  4. 2.1 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply

  5. 2.2 Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply

  6. 2.3 Sterilization

  7. §3 HOW THE CENTRAL BANK FIXES THE EXCHANGE RATE • 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium when the interest parity condition holds: R=R* +(Ee-E )/E (1) R: the domestic interest rate R*:the foreign interest rate (Ee-E )/E:the expected rate of depreciation of the domestic currency against foreign currency

  8. We assume that no exchange rate changes are expected by the market when exchange rates are fixed ,so (Ee-E)/E will be zero. R=R* +0 (2) R=R* (3)

  9. A Diagrammatic Analysis

  10. §4 STABILIZATION POLICIES WITH A FIXED EXCHANGE RATE 4.1 Monetary Policies By fixing the exchange rate, then, the central bank loses its ability to use monetary policy for the purpose of macroeconomic stabilization. However, the government ‘second key stabilization tool, fiscal policy, is more effective under a fixed rate than a floating rate. Exchange Rate, E DD 2 E2 1 E0 ● AA2 AA1 O Y1 Y2 Output, Y

  11. §4 STABILIZATION POLICIES WITHA FIXED EXCHANGE RATE • 4.2 Fiscal Policy Fiscal expansion (shown by the shift from DD1 to DD2) and the intervention that accompanies it (the shift from AA1 to AA2) move the economy from point 1 to point 3,where output is higher than originally, the exchange rate is unchanged ,and official intervention reserves (and the money supply) are higher.

  12. 4.3 Changes in the Exchange Rate

  13. §5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISES AND CAPITAL FLIGHT • To hold the exchange rate fixed at E0 after the market decides it will be devalued to E1,the central bank must use its reserves to finance a private capital outflow that shrinks the money supply and raises the home interest rate.

  14. § 6 MANAGED FOATING AND STERILIZED INTERVENTION • 6.1 Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention When domestic and foreign currency bonds are perfect substitutes, the foreign exchange market is in equilibrium only if the interest parity condition holds: R=R* +(Ee-E )/E(1)

  15. 6.2 Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability The equilibrium under imperfect asset substitutability requires: R=R* +(Ee-E )/E+ ρ (2) ρ :a risk premium, that reflects the difference between the riskiness of domestic and foreign bonds ρdepends positively on the stock of domestic government debt, devoted by B, less the domestic assets of the central bank, devoted by A: ρ=ρ (B-A)(3)

  16. § 6 MANAGED FOATING AND STERILIZED INTERVENTION 6.3 The Effect of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability (Figure 17-6 ) 6.4 Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention 6.5 The Signaling Effect of Intervention

  17. §7 Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System 7.1 The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard Countries peg the prices of their currencies in terms of a reserve currency involving a striking asymmetry.

  18. 7.2 The Gold Standard All countries fix the prices of their currencies in terms of gold. The gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currency standard and also places constraints on the growth of money supplies.

  19. Question

  20. Thanks

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