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Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics Jukka Pietiläinen

Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics Jukka Pietiläinen PhD., Senior researcher Aleksanteri-Institute. Aleksanteri Election Seminar 25 January 2012. 1) How election fraud can be found out statistically ? 2) Was there more fraud now than before ?

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Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics Jukka Pietiläinen

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  1. Falsification of election results in Russia? Myths and Statistics Jukka Pietiläinen PhD., Senior researcher Aleksanteri-Institute Aleksanteri Election Seminar 25 January 2012

  2. 1) Howelectionfraudcanbefound out statistically? 2) Wastheremorefraudnowthanbefore? 3) Whypeopleprotestednow, and notearlier? Manipulation of electionresultswhichcanbeshownbystatisticalmethods Notpossible to tell in whichparticularpollingstationsfraudtookplace

  3. After the electionseveralstatisticalanalysesappeared in Russianblogs(as hasappearedalready in 2007 and 2008) Basic data providedby the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (already since 2003): over 95,000 polling stations

  4. According to Russianbloggers: manyirregulaties in electionstatistics: a strongpossibility for systematicfalsification of results: • unnormaldistribution of turnout in pollingstations • unnormaldistribution of support for United Russia

  5. Number of pollingstations Votes for United Russia %

  6. Turnout % Share of votes for United Russia % Irregulardistribution of turnout and share for UR Indicatethatvoteshavebeenadded for United Russia in significantnumber of pollingstations (my ownfigures)

  7. According to blogger Podmoskovnik – Homme de nombres: official results and his estimates 2007 2011 official estim. official estim. United Russia 64.3% 56.1% 49.3% 34.4% KPRF 11.6% 14.7% 19.2% 26.0% LDPR 8.1% 10.3% 11.7% 15.6% Just Russia 7.7% 9.8% 13.2% 17.5% Turnout 63.7% 50.2% 60.1% 44.8% But it is not possible to go back to “real results”

  8. Possibleexplanation In countryside people vote more actively (and more often for United Russia) This explains a part of the strange form of the graphs concerning turnout Citiesover 1 million Smallertowns and countryside Cities 100.000— million

  9. Level of fraudvariesfromregion to region: • Highest in manyethnicrepublics and in South • Lowest in North and North-West • Linkswith • freedom of press • level of civilsociety • localpoliticalpluralism

  10. Moscow 2011 2007 Turnout 55.1% Turnout 61.3%

  11. Moscow 2011 2007 United Russia 54.1% United Russia 46.6% Strangeform in 2011 + discrepancywithexitpolls New mayor: need to get a goodresult for United Russiain the capital?

  12. Why people protested now, and not earlier? Opinion polls among Russia In 2007: 16.7% elections free and fair 45.6% mostly free and fair 14.1% mostly not free and fair 4.4% not free and fair at all Focus group research after elections 2007-2008: “Election fraud has not been massive”, “what difference does it make, whether there is democracy or not” (Wilson 2012). In 2011: Absolutelyhonest 5% Mostlyhonest 30% Mostlynothonest 30% Absolutelynothonest 15% No answer 20% (Levada-Centre 28.12.2011)

  13. Why people protested now, and not earlier? Decline of official support for United Russia Discontent with Putin’s announcement to return to presidential office Economic crisis, forest fire crisis: increasing discontent with leadership Massive scale election fraud also in Moscow More public discussion of election fraud More internet users than in 2007-2008 Generation change: more young without Soviet experience

  14. Literature and references: Wilson, Kenneth: How Russians View Electoral Fairness: A Qualitative Analysis. Europe-Asia Studies 64:1 (2012), 145-168. Mebane, Walter R. & Kalinin, Kirill: Comparative Election Fraud Detaction. Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, 2009. Шень, А.: Выборы и статистика: казус «Единой России» (2009). alexander.shen.free.fr/elections.pdf Мягков, Михаил, Ордешук, Питер К. & Шакин, Дмитрий: Фальсификации или домыслы: опыт выборов в России и в Украине. Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. 2005:2, 116-155.  internet magazine Тройский вариант Russianblogs

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