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Urban Water Demand Trends Conservation and the Future of Residential Water Use. Peter Mayer, P.E. peter.mayer@waterdm.com. www.a4we.org. www.waterdm.com. www.incentware.com. Water Demand Management: Why?. Water shortages Expensive to develop new supplies Climate change.

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  1. Urban Water Demand Trends Conservation and the Future of Residential Water Use Peter Mayer, P.E. peter.mayer@waterdm.com www.a4we.org www.waterdm.com www.incentware.com

  2. Water Demand Management: Why? • Water shortages • Expensive to develop new supplies • Climate change

  3. Demand Management = Serious Business

  4. Drought @2050 vs Notorious Recent Historical Droughts PDSI = Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI was developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s and uses temperature and rainfall information in a formula to determine dryness. 2040-2060 Source: Dr. Martin Hoerling, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

  5. Greeley Colorado Historic Demand

  6. Utilities are Asking: Where did the demand go? • In 2008 a typical household used ~ 12,000 gallons less than in 1978 (Coomes, P. et. al. 2010). • Significant demand reductions were observed prior to recession. City of Westminster, CO average annual household water use, 2000 – 2010, with trend line

  7. Seattle Public Utilities - 1990

  8. Forecast Without Conservation

  9. Firm Yield in 2013

  10. Forecast With Conservation

  11. 2013

  12. A brief history of demand forecasting in Seattle

  13. Seattle Saved $725 million PV Cost of New Supply $800 Million PV Cost of Conservation: $ 75 Million _______________________________________________________________ NPV : $725 Million

  14. Avg. Annual Use Per SF Home (kgal) Source: Mayer, P. et. al. 2013. Residential End Uses of Water Update. AWWA - ACE, Denver, CO.

  15. 1999 REUWS vs. 2014 REUWSgallons per household per day

  16. 2014 REUWS Update

  17. Homes Meeting Efficiency CriteriaToilet < 2 gal., Clothes washer <30 gal.

  18. How much more conservation? • A lot. • We’re almost…half way there! • New technology • Outdoor efficiency • WaterSense • Leak detection • Advanced metering • Conservation-oriented rates • Customer engagement through data and information

  19. Future Trends • Technological change • Behavioral change • More intense and frequent drought • Water demand management at the retail level

  20. Thank You Peter Mayer, P.E. peter.mayer@waterdm.com

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