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Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public Policy Foundation, THAILAND

‘Working for Desirable Future’ : Transparency and participation in electricity sector planning in Thailand. Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public Policy Foundation, THAILAND 26th September 2011 FESTI International Conference, Bishkek. Installed Capacity by Type of Producers, April 2011.

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Suphakit Nuntavorakarn Healthy Public Policy Foundation, THAILAND

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  1. ‘Working for Desirable Future’:Transparency and participationin electricity sector planning in Thailand Suphakit NuntavorakarnHealthy Public Policy Foundation, THAILAND 26th September 2011 FESTI International Conference, Bishkek

  2. Installed Capacity by Type of Producers, April 2011 Total 31,516.61 MW EGAT 14,998.12 MW 47.59% Import 2,184.60 MW 6.93% IPP 12,151.59 MW 38.56% SPP 2,182.30 MW 6.92% From www.egat.co.th

  3. Power Development Plan (PDP) • PDP is the long-term strategic plan of the Thai power sector (15-20 years timeframe) • PDP determines the future investment on power generation - how many and which types of power plant – and the transmission network. • For example, total investment of PDP2010 120 billion USD • So PDP also determines the future impacts of the power sector, including environmental, economic, social, and health impacts

  4. Power Development Plan 2010-2030 (PDP2010)Installed Capacity by fuel type MW 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 18% 18% 8% 8% 18% 8% 18% 17% 8% 7% 17% 16% 7% 7% 15% 7% 6% 15% 6% 15% 5% 5% 14% 13% 12% 11% 5% 6% 10% 8% 6% 42% 43% 43% 7% 44% 7% 45% 45% 47% 49% 51% 51% 54% 57% 64% 67% 68% 65% 64% 63% 61% 66% 60% 17% 15% 15% 13% 13% 11% 11% 12% 9% 9% 8% 4% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 4% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% ปี 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7% 6% 6% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% PDP2010 : (GDP Base Case) Renewables Import Natural Gas Imported coal Nuclear 2010 2030

  5. Drivers and institutional improvements on PDP

  6. Triggering the changes: local communities protesting against large power plant projects • Concerns about negative impacts • Is the project really necessary? Due to over demand forecast • Is there other energy options? Renewable energy in their area instead?

  7. Triggering the changes: consumer groups who are questioning about the unfair electricity tariff Energy expenses and their burden onThai households 1990-2006 Reference : National Statistic Office

  8. Academic contributions andpublic communication • Information and analysis on the electricity sector - to create basic understanding for different social sector andto get their attentions on various issues about PDP • Development and impact assessment on Alternative Power Development Plans - to create ‘Choice Awareness’ on many energy options andthese can be discuss deliberately as a social learning process • Electricity Governance Assessment - focus on transparency, public participation, and accountability in the Thai power sector

  9. Inequality of Electricity Consumption 3 Huge Shopping Malls VS. The Whole Province GWh GWh

  10. Question on Systematic Over-Demand Forecast

  11. The figures of over demand forecast

  12. ROIC and Investment Efficiency • Using Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) as the main criteria for setting electricity tariff may lead to over investment • since more investment means more profit • Strong regulation on investment plans is needed, but the Regulators still lack of data, knowledge, and human resources to check and balance 4.8% Result: Over Demand Forecastand prefer high investment options

  13. The cycle of supporting more investment under ‘monopoly’ power OverDemand Forecast Power Planningthat preferhigh investment options 1 Benefits of utilities, energy companies, etc. 2 3 Electricity tariff that allow the pass on of excess costs to consumers

  14. Ft : Fuel AdjustmentCharge • EGAT: a part of the electricity tariff that increase or decrease automatically, according to changes in fuel costs and other uncontrol costs • The mechanism to pass on the costs to consumers, which includes • Fuel costs • Electricity price for private producers and import (including profit guarantee, compensation for inflation and exchange rate) • Expenses according to government policies (e.g. Community Development Funds, ‘Adder’ for renewable energy, etc.) • Compensation for lower sale (or over investment)

  15. DSM and Energy Efficiency arethe cheapest energy options ที่มา: World Bank, World Development Report 2010

  16. DSM in PDP2010 Saving target of T5 high efficiency light bulb program 2010-2019 Save 0.3% ofthe peak demand in 20 years Saving target of DSM program for 2020-2030 16

  17. Fast Growth of Renewable Energy in Thailand 2009 1994

  18. Example of PDP-Alternative

  19. Installed Capacity of Different PDP Options

  20. Share of Installed Capacity in Different PDP Options • GHG reduction measures • increaseDSM • increaseRenewables • decrease coal

  21. Energy Generation in Different PDP Options

  22. Comparative Impact Assessment on various Alternative PDPs Economics Social Environment

  23. Significant Reduction of GHG Emission Reduce GHG by 40%

  24. Good for Reducing Air Pollution (SOx) Reduce SOx by 50%

  25. Good for Reducing Pollution (Hg) Reduce Hg by 75%

  26. Higher GDP Contribution and Lower Imported Cost Reduce import by 16.9% increaseGDP by 5.6%

  27. Good for the Economy and Environment

  28. Good for Society, More Job Creation Create more jobs by188,000 persons

  29. Institutional Improvements on PDP:The policy network • Expanding from mainly local communities against projects, NGOs, and some academics • To different parts of the society, for example, consumer networks, community energy movement, National Human Rights Commission, several Ministries, Senate committee, the regulators, as well as EGAT and Ministry of Energy • The network itself was transformed from ‘physical’ network to ‘coordinate by contents’ and more open aiming at social learning process on PDP

  30. Institutional Improvements on PDP:The role of private sector • The group on renewable energy, SPP and VSPP, was rather active, but conservative on pushing for change. • The large power companies, IPP, have been passive to push for changes.

  31. Outcomes on PDP process and key features

  32. Outcomes on PDP process and key features

  33. Outcomes on PDP process and key features

  34. Future challenges 1) Sharpen the analysis and more effective communications,for example - improve from Forecast to Foresight and more detail analysis for peak and off-peak period, and base-intermediate-peaking supply options - improving dependable capacity and load factor of renewable energy 2) Proactive participation of local communities and policy networks in PDP process as well as other policy and planning process 3) Promote good governance and solving Conflict of Interests of the senior staffs in the Ministry of Energy 4) Ensure accountability of the government on PDP decision-making process as well as share and fair responsibility of each electricity user category

  35. Thank youfor your attention 35

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