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LESSONS IN LEADERSHIP #1/Y2K: 25 JANUARY 2000 PHILADELPHIA. Seminar Y2K Brand Everything : Distinct or Extinct.
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Microsoft = R.O.W.Microsoft > GM + Ford + Boeing + Lockheed Martin + Deere + Caterpillar + USX + Weyerhauser + Union Pacific + Kodak + Sears + Marriott + Safeway + KelloggSource: Business Week data through 5-99
Microsoft = R.O.W. (II)Microsoft >GM + Ford + Boeing + Lockheed Martin + Deere + Caterpillar + USX + Weyerhauser + Union Pacific + Kodak + Sears + Marriott + Safeway + Kellogg + McDonald’s + Bank One + General Mills + American Airlines + United Airlines + + Delta Air Lines + US Airways + Quaker OatsSource: Yastrow Marketing (through 11-23-99)
No Wiggle Room!“Incrementalism is innovation’s worst enemy.” Nicholas Negroponte
Just Say No …“I don’t intend to be known as the ‘King of the Tinkerers.’ ”CEO, large financial services company (New York, 5-99)
Forget > Learn“The problem is never how to get new, innovative thoughts into your mind, but how to get old ones out.” Dee Hock
“It is generally much easier to kill an organization than change it substantially.” — Kevin Kelly, Out of Control
Q:What do you do when you are a big, dopey company and out of ideas?
A:You merge with another big, dopey company that doesn’t have any ideas either.
R:An incredibly big, incredibly dopey company … going nowhere.
“I feel betrayed. I bought stock in a company that was going to change the world. I didn’t buy a big, fat, stupid conglomerate. And now I’ve got one.”Alan Towers, consultant, quoted in Business Week [BW: “The irony is that AOL Time Warner is a vertically integrated conglomerate. Not exactly the sort of nimble competitor that will thrive in cyberspace.”]
“When asked to name just one big merger that had lived up to expectations, Leon Cooperman, former cochairman of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Policy Committee, answered: ‘I’m sure there are success stories out there, but at this moment I draw a blank.’ ”Mark Sirower, The Synergy Trap
“Acquisitions are about buying market share. Our challenge is to create markets. There is a big difference.” — Peter Job, CEO, Reuters
“We chose not to do a discounted cash flow analysis of their future earnings. We wanted their talent and we wanted their intellectual property.” Art Reidel, CEO, Pharsight
“Our ideal acquisition is a small startup that has a great technology product on the drawing board that is going to come out in six to twelve months. We buy the engineers and the next generation product. …” John Chambers
Silicon Valley Success Secrets“Pursuit of risk”: 4 of 20 in V.C. portfolio go bust; 6 lose money; 6 do okay; 3 do well; 1 hits the jackpotSource: The Economist
“R & D”Intel’s venture fund: 275 investments, $3.5BSource: Fast Company (12-99)
EcoNets/Internet Zaibatsus“The model is about partial acquisitions and ownerships that then form a whole. Each part has to have value separately, be able to raise capital separately, and motivate employees separately. Corporations of the past never had that.”Flip Filipowski, divine interVentures (Red Herring)
“The brick and mortars will die, no matter what. … So you have to take your best employees and best businesses and spin them off and just own 40 percent of everything that’s left. Do that and you survive.”Flip Filipowski, divine interVentures (Red Herring)
“With the arrival of the Internet, corporate control has completely disappeared. Business today is about all kinds of companies participating to make something happen. Nobody knows any more what the products will do and what the markets will be. Markets define themselves. You have to be able to react to them organically….“Control is an illusion. I don’t think that it ever existed, but now even the illusion is gone. As a result, we’re experiencing the rebirth of intuition.”Avram Miller
“It used to be that the big ate the small. Now the fast eat the slow.”Geoff Yang, IVP/ (Institutional Venture Partners)
The Gales of Creative Destruction+29M = -44M + 73M+4M = +4M - 0M
“But what if [former head of strategic planner at Royal Dutch Shell] Arie de Geus is wrong in suggesting, in The Living Company, that firms should aspire to live forever? Greatness is fleeting and, for corporations, it will become ever more fleeting. The ultimate aim of a business organization, an artist, an athlete or a stockbroker may be to explode in a dramatic frenzy of value creation during a short space of time, rather than to live forever.”Kjell Nordstrom and Jonas Ridderstrale,Funky Business
BW: “human brain has only a short time left as the smartest thing on earth”/ “subjugate humanity by 2050”Health Forum Journal: “In one generation or less, every element of health care, every assumption, will be changed or gone.”/ “We are not aging gracefully.”Dr. George Poste, SKB: 500 molecular targets in ’95 to 70,000 in ’99/ 35 compounds per year to2M
“Medicine looks likely to change more in the next 20 years than it has in the last 200.”British Medical Journal (11-11-99)
“I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history.”Matt Ridley, Genome
“ALL OF THESE ‘CONVERSATIONS’ TODAY ABOUT ‘THE WEB’ WILL APPEAR SO BLOODY DAMN SILLY AND PEDESTRIAN TEN … FIVE? … THREE? … YEARS FROM NOW.” — Tom Peters (11-99) P.S.: Read Ray Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
TTTTTurbulent Times!Top 3 Americans > 48 poorest nations.World200 = 41% of world wealth.Source: Newsweek 12-99
ERP, ECM, Web, Etc.IT’S THE GIANT SUCKING SOUND OF SLACK BEING EXTRACTED FROM THE GLOBAL ECONOMY!
“The coefficient of friction associated with the grunge of business is amazing!”Michael Schrage
White Collar Revolution(Finally!!)90% … in 10 years!PSFs ….. All!Brand Yous … All!WOW Projects … All!
RR on Sara Lee“The most profitable businesses in the future will act as knowledge brokers, linking insights into what’s available with insights into the customer’s individual needs and preferences.”
The “&-!!+#$% in the middle”*Jim Clark on Healtheon* ’twixt docs, patients and providers; $250B in waste (?); source: Michael Lewis,The New New Thing
“We want to be the air traffic controllers of electrons.”Bob Nardelli, GE Power Systems
“UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now it’s a technology company with trucks.”Forbes (1-00), on UPS’s $11B spent on IS in the 90s; UPS was Forbes’ “Company of the Year”