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NBA Statistics: Measuring a Player’s Efficiency

NBA Statistics: Measuring a Player’s Efficiency. By Ryan Straub. What makes an NBA player effective?. Is it the number of points they score per game? Is it their shooting percentage throughout the entire season? Is it their ability to play defense?

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NBA Statistics: Measuring a Player’s Efficiency

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  1. NBA Statistics:Measuring a Player’s Efficiency By Ryan Straub

  2. What makes an NBA player effective? • Is it the number of points they score per game? • Is it their shooting percentage throughout the entire season? • Is it their ability to play defense? • Is it their ability to take care of the basketball without committing a turnover? • ….All these factors can make a player effective. However, interpreting which players are the best can be very difficult without a true understanding of the game. There are over 20 different statistics recorded for each player in the NBA to evaluate their performance.

  3. Common NBA Statisitics • Positive Stats • Points (PTS) • Rebounds (REB) • Assists (AST) • Steals (STL) • Blocks (BLK) • Field Goals Made (FG) • Free Throws Made (FT) • Negative Stats • Turnovers (TO) • Personal Fouls (PF) • Missed Field Goals • Missed Free Throws How can you judge a player’s ability based on all these different statistics? A statistician named John Hollinger solved this problem by developing a new NBA stat called Player Efficiency Rating.

  4. Player Efficiency Rating (PER) • PER is a statistical measure used in the NBA to measure the efficiency of a player by taking into consideration all statistics kept by the NBA, and weights the players production by minutes played per game, and number of team possessions per game. The minutes/game aspect of PERs gives players like Lebron James (38 minutes/game) and Steve Novak (20 minutes/game) an equal chance of showing their effectiveness in any given game. • It assigns a single number to each player which serves as a great method for comparison. • PER takes into account all the main positive statistics with the negative statistics factored in as well. • Because not all statistical categories are equally important, how is it possible to turn the several different statistics into a single number?

  5. Player Efficiency Rating Formula PER = (1 / MP) * [ 3P + (2/3) * AST + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG))) - VOP * TOV - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG) - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT) + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB) + VOP * DRB% * ORB + VOP * STL + VOP * DRB% * BLK - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP)]

  6. Simplified Version PER= 45.75*(Points/Minute)+22.55*(Rebounds/Minute)+32.8*(Assists/Minute)+58.2*(Steals/Minute) -48.65*(Turnovers/Minute) -39.73*(Missed FG’s/Minute) -20.6*(Missed FT/minute)+38.37*(Blocked Shots/Minute)-18.68*(Personal Fouls/Minute) • Although this formula is not 100% accurate, it was off by an average of .37 when calculating player efficiency ratings of the top 200 players in the NBA according to Yahoo.com • Therefore, the simplified version avoids much complication and yields very similar results.

  7. Interpreting the Player Efficiency Rating Scale for various PERs: • All-time great season: 35+ • Hands-down MVP: 30-35 • Strong MVP candidate: 27.5-30 • Long-shot MVP candidate: 25-27.5 • Definite All-Star: 22.5-25 • Borderline All-Star: 20-22.5 • Second offensive option: 18-20 • Third offensive option: 16.5-18 • Slightly above-average player: 15-16.5 • Rotation player: 13-15 • Non-rotation player: 11-13 • Fringe roster player: 9-11 • Player who won't stick in the league: 5-9

  8. LeBron James In the 2012-2013 season, what was Lebron James’ player efficiency rating per 36 minutes? Was this good enough to qualify him for the league MVP? In this chart, use the column “TRB” to represent rebounds and the column “TOV” to represent turnovers.

  9. Hints: • The number of minutes is already given • 7 out of the 9 “per minute” categories needed for the formula are given in the table. The remaining 2 can be found using simple math: Field Goals Attempted-Field Goals Made=The number of field goals missed 16.9-9.6= 7.3 Free Throws Attempted-Free Throws Made =The number of free throws missed 6.7-5.0= 1.7

  10. PER= 45.75*(Points/Minute)+22.55*(Rebounds/Minute)+32.8*(Assists/Minute)+58.2*(Steals/Minute) -48.65*(Turnovers/Minute) -39.73*(Missed FG’s/Minute) -20.6*(Missed FT/minute)+38.37*(Blocked Shots/Minute)-18.68*(Personal Fouls/Minute) PER = 45.75(25.5/36) + 22.55(7.6/36) + 32.8(6.9/36) +58.2(1.6/36) - 48.65(2.8/36) -39.73(7.3/36) – 20.6(1.7/36) +38.37(0.8/36) -18.68(1.4/36) PER= 33.35 MVP Candidate: Yes

  11. References • http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html • http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nba/ultimate-guide-to-the-player-efficiency-rating-per.aspx • http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/04/wayne-winston-simplifies-pers/

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