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Trend Forecasting Process

Trend Forecasting Process. FMD 451. Fashion Forecasting. The creative process that can be understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has the tools.

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Trend Forecasting Process

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  1. Trend Forecasting Process FMD 451

  2. Fashion Forecasting • The creative process that can be understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has the tools. • Need to have a balanced view that seeks out new styles breaking the cultural edge, and the reality of changing demographics, identifies the fad, and the long wave of change. • Uses: product planning, gain market share, position products against competitors, shape collections, style directions, color and textiles directions, ect.

  3. Steps in developing a forecast • ID the facts about past trends/forecasts • Determine cause of change in the past • Look at differences between past forecasts and consumer behavior • Identify factors likely to affect future trends • Apply forecasting tools and techniques accurately. • Follow the forecast continually- see if expectations deviate • Revise the forecast when necessary.

  4. Forecasting Specialties • Long term forecasts- 5 or more years • Short term forecasts- more than one year ahead.

  5. Forecasting Scans- Media Scan - • Fashion scans- follow latest fashion and lifestyle trends: visit Fashion capitals, scan media, network with people in the creative fields (arts, entertainment, interior design, cosmetics, and architecture. • Consumer Scans- Consumer segmentation (you already did), point of sale data (retailers and manufactures). Fashion scan + consumer scan= fashion analysis- what will happen next! Do your research!

  6. Soak up news that relates to change! National newspaper-Wall Street Journal, New York Times Trade papers- WWD, California Apparel News, Advertising Age Fashion and Lifestyle magazines( food, travel, home décor, health, gossip, political, buisness, science, men’s and womens) 4. Internet- Popular Culture (world wide): coolhunter 5. Watch past fashion shows 6. Take a trip to popular shopping venues, fashionable neighborhoods. 7. Pop Culture: movies, music, TV, books, theater, art. Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis

  7. Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis • Collect bits and pieces from a broad spectrum of sources. • Link signals, shape them into a vision of what the future may be. • Pay attention to: • New and unusual business • Innovative and novel products • Unusual travel destinations • New, rediscovered, or redesigned leisure activities. • New shopping locations,store designs, services. • Stories about people and their adjustment to life’s challenges. • Neighborhoods with interesting mix of people, shopping or ethnic cultures.

  8. Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis • Collect information( folders), organize it into a list of themes, issues, ideas, that capture your attention. • Trends require a label! • Start general and become specific! -general examples: new music, financial issues, cult movies, unusual jobs • specific examples: “cyberstyle”, “GenNesters”, “Asian Influence” *Once the trend begins to emerge, think about how the trend relates to a specific product category or target market.

  9. Media Scan:Trend ID, analysis and synthesis Ideas for Project 2: Media scan • Trend folders • Cite all resources used • You should address all parts of the media scan. • Summarize what your found- Pick 10 major topics/broad categories(20 sources in each) Index them in your paper with sources and images. Summarize in your paper.

  10. Describe the Zeitgeist- “ The Spirit of the Times” • Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is created and worn. • Fashion responds to what is modern, all cultural components respond to the spirit of the times. • The Zeitgeist covers all product categories. • Media reports culture but is also shaped by it. • Lifecycles are associated with the Zeitgeist. • “An expression of modernity, of the current state of culture, of the incipient and unarticulated tastes of the consuming public.”

  11. Next generation- Tweens 8-12, looking to computer games and Japanese comic books for inspiration. Pay attention to: Style interactions between apparel, cuisine, sports, architecture, interiors, automobiles, toys, avocations, pastimes, and play. Changes in the marketplace: New fashion- seasonal to continuous Lack of design leadership Rules for appropriateness relaxed Consumers declared independence Emergence of No fashion-casual Friday, ect. Cheap chic Fast fashion Zeitgeist

  12. Fashion History Research- Describe the following: • Designer’s signature style, ex. Tom Ford 1990’s • Style leader- Jacqueline Kennedy- 1960’s • A fashion look- Flapper look 1920’s • Bohemian element- The hippies, hip hop • Market segment middle class 1950’s • Celebrity Icon- Madonna material girl- 1980’s • Model- Twiggy 1960’s • Fiber/fabric- Chanel Jersey

  13. Timeline

  14. Research • Describe- what is shaping the trend, • Why has the trend developed • Who is leading the trend. • Look to past designs- Cyclical nature of fashion! • Analyze the trends that affect your target market.

  15. Forecast for 2010! Color • Color Story- combined into prints, fabrics, all areas usually 200 pieces per collection. • Work 18-24 months in advance • Color Association of the United States • Psychology of color- color preferences. • Separate for men, women, interiors, youth.

  16. Words used in color • Hue- the color name • Saturation/ chroma- intensity, strength of color, • Value- lightness or darkness of a color. • Tint- white added • Shade- black added • Tone- Grey added • Examples: concentrated, deep, subdue, clear.

  17. Color Marketing- Name • Name a color with imagination, should be able to be used across product categories, understand your customer’s perception of the colors. You want to depict a mood! • Examples from the environment: • Natural phenomena sky, sunshine, grass green. • Flora- poppy red, moss green, orchid • Fauna- flamingo pink, robin egg blue • Gemstones- amber, copper • Food and drink- caramel, champagne, • Spices- paprika, curry red • Dyes- indigo • Building materials- adobe, terra cotta, bronze • Locations- Capri blue

  18. Color Cycles • High chroma-- multi colored--subdue colors-- earth tones-- achromatic colors (black, white, grey)--purple. • Look at your media scan--- what did you see- colors celebrities were wearing, locations, music covers, interiors, museum exhibits, toys, electronics, food, graphics, ect. What is selling in stores?! • May be done in house or use a professional color system like PANTONE. • Images will help you describe color choices. • Predict 4-7 colors per direction. • Think about season- weather, temperature

  19. Textiles • Overall style: botanical, romantic, folkloric • Interpretation- realistic, abstract, geometric. • Scale- small vs large scale motifs • Figure ground relationship- blank space vs. crowded patterns • Reference to art styles Art Deco • Complexity • Cultural reference- Asian inspired, African motifs • Historic references- time periods • Color story- sherbet colors, tropical, brights with Neutral. • Motifs- golf, seashell, animal print.

  20. The totality of the look: minimalist, feminine, sexy redifined. Theme or Mood: gothic romanticisim Swing of fashion pendulum- flared to narrow Proportions of pieces-placement of waistline Silhouette- tubular, hourglass, wedge Point of emphasis- shoulders, bust, waist Fit- body hugging, loose Details- collar, pocket, sleeve, cuff Exaggeration in details. Trims- beading, feathers, lace Findings- button, zippers, snaps Fabric type- woven, knits, Fabric finishing- dyeing, abrasion Specific fabrics- transparent, velvet, ect. The Look: Design

  21. The science of analyzing culture as a system of signs. Visual concepts: Referencing the past Ethnic sources Sexuality Sports Appropriateness- “uptown chic” 6. Avant-Garde 7. Modernity 8. Postmodern Semiotics

  22. Trends • Mega Trend- restructuring of culture affects all industries ex. Eco friendly • Major Trend- broad public appeal • Minor Trend- limited or small appeal. Only refers to a specialized group of consumers. • Describe potential of trend, how long it will last, interaction with other trends.

  23. Trend Reporting; Label the trend • Look- retro, Japanese influence • Mood or spirit- youthful, playful • Lifestyle message • Tie in with celebrity • Target Market- urban youth • Brand image • Concept- career casual • Source of inspiration- Moroccan • Pop culture influence

  24. Forecasting Traps • Time, limitations, assumptions • Lack of imagination, research, insight • Excessive Optimism • Hidden Agendas, wish fulfillment vs. reality • Two sides of the coin- trend and countertrend • Generation gap • Overlapping trends- sectors • Fad vs. Trend • Don’t oversell. • See Appendix for resources (Mudpie.co.uk, WGSN)

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