Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate Forum Washington, DC March 9-10, 2006

1. Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate Forum Washington, DC March 9-10, 2006 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

2. Outline • Background • Current Capability • Examples and Feedback • Planned Enhancements • Long-term Goals • Opportunities NOAA/NWS Digital Services

3. Background VISION: To meet customer and partner needs for high quality, accessible, and reliable digital weather, water, and climate services. NOAA/NWS Digital Services

4. Current CapabilityCollaborative-Forecasting Process National Centers Model Guidance • Interactive • Collaborative • Information Oriented High Resolution Grids Local Digital Forecast Database Field Offices National Centers Collaborate Data and Science Focus NWS Automated Products User-Generated Products National Digital Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. Digital Text Graphic Voice NOAA/NWS Digital Services

5. Current Capability Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal: • Faster access to information in more convenient formats through new pathways. Fulfills NRC recommendation: • “Provide data and products in digital form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003) NOAA/NWS Digital Services

6. Current Capability The public, emergency managers and city planners use graphic products for detailed forecasts • More weather data • Higher resolution forecasts • Visual displays of probability • User-defined products create business opportunities Different Products for Different Customers Commercial weather companies, emergency managers, and others use grids to generate tailored products TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. Radio stations & public read text forecasts NOAA/NWS Digital Services

7. Experimental elements: QPF Snow Amount Sky Cover Significant Wave Height Operational elements: Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Temperature Dew Point Probability of Precipitation Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Apparent Temperature * Relative Humidity * * as of 3/15/06 Current CapabilityProduction Operational & experimental elements available for CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam NOAA/NWS Digital Services

8. Current CapabilityDistribution/Access • FOS Server Access Service • Anonymous ftp • Free software developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory decodes GRIB2 files and supports conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles • Experimental XML Web Service • Web Graphics NOAA/NWS Digital Services

9. Current CapabilityAssessment • Monthly, point-based verification available, comparing surface observations and operational NDFD forecast elements • NDFD forecast element verification scores comparable to accuracy of legacy NWS forecasts and model guidance NOAA/NWS Digital Services

10. Current CapabilityArchive Operational NDFD elements available from NCDC through: • Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS) http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect • NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#ndfd NOAA/NWS Digital Services

11. Katrina’s Eye Forecast to Pass over New Orleans Forecast issued Saturday morning Aug 27 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

12. Apparent TemperatureJanuary 2006 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

13. Public Feedback • “As a member of a fire department and EMS service we must constantly be aware of weather conditions and how they are going to change. We use the graphical forecasts to prepare for changing weather.” • “I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings and grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow removal or boiler plant shutdowns, your service is quite valuable.” • “I love the ability to look at a forecast for a particular time period. This should be extremely valuable for us as farmers to know predicted cloud cover and precip. chance during the course of the day.” NOAA/NWS Digital Services

14. Your Feedback • Are you accessing or using the NDFD information? • Is the information helping you achieve the results you need to satisfy your, or your customers’, needs? • If so, what positive impacts are you willing to share? • If not, what else can we do to help? NOAA/NWS Digital Services

15. Unmet User Needs • Relay critical weather information faster and more efficiently • Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution • Support decision-making by making data more interoperable • More hazardous weather information in digital formats NOAA/NWS Digital Services

16. Planned Enhancements Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months: • Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center • National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center • Fire Weather Forecast Parameters • Elements for Alaska NOAA/NWS Digital Services

17. Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed ProbabilityHurricane Wilma – Oct 2005 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

18. Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: • Accuracy • Expand Guidance e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS • Produce Gridded Verification • Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields • Resolution • Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution for Days 1-3 • Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

19. Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: • Availability (reliability) • Transition to operational status XML web service • Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9% uptime) • Consistency • Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing tools • Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures NOAA/NWS Digital Services

20. Long-term Goals • Increase spatial and temporal resolution • Expand horizontal domain offshore and internationally • Add a vertical dimension (aviation) • Include more probabilistic information • Add downscaled high-impact weather information • Analysis of Record (objective analysis) NOAA/NWS Digital Services

21. Long-term Goals • Establish NDGD e.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge • Create GIS Map Service • Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT • Interface with decision-assistance tools • Establish one-stop shopping e.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar • Evolve into NOAA-wide “Environmental Information Repository” NOAA/NWS Digital Services

22. Supply Chain • NWS – e.g., NDFD • Retailers – e.g., CWSA, others • Customers Success factor: Frequent exchange of data to know customers’ demands • e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates, etc. NOAA/NWS Digital Services

23. Business Opportunities • Like software, music, and literature, free open source data comes at a price (i.e., data isn’t everything and support may be what a customer needs.) • Your value-added adaptation is often required to fit specific customers needs (especially large complex organizations with weather- sensitive operations.) NOAA/NWS Digital Services

24. Questions, Comments? glenn.austin@noaa.gov 301-713-1858 x150 http://weather.gov/ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services