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MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW. APRIL 2014. Probabilistic ENSO Forecast. Pensacola rains. Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel). CONTENTS. * Tropics - ENSO [Neutral] - MJO * Extra-tropics *Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks * Drought * Selected Weather Events

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MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

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  1. MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW APRIL 2014 Probabilistic ENSO Forecast Pensacola rains Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

  2. CONTENTS *Tropics -ENSO [Neutral] -MJO *Extra-tropics *Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks *Drought *Selected Weather Events *Outlooks (May & MJJ 2014 & MDO)

  3. I. The Tropics

  4. LATESTMONTHLYINDICES

  5. LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

  6. 850-hPa Wind MJO update 5/5: Westerly DNs diminished across south- east I.O. & southern Maritime Continent; increased over e/c-Pacific

  7. 200-hPa Wind MJO update 5/5: Background state has contributed to Easterlies expanding to IDL Westerly DNs expand east to M.C.* *M.C. = Maritime Continent

  8. SST & Anomalies Subsurface 200m 200m

  9. SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region CFSv2 NMME & inputs (10th) CPC/IRI CPC Consolidation

  10. II. The Extra-Tropics

  11. Northern Hemisphere SLP 500-hPa Severnaya Zemlya

  12. Southern Hemisphere SLP 500-hPa

  13. Global Temperatures

  14. Global Precipitation ITCZ

  15. Precipitation

  16. Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Mean precipitation derived from CPC Unified Daily gauge analysis Special thanks to Pingping & Mingyue for these plots! Used raw analysis at 0.125deg lat/lon resolution Orographic effects of Hawaiian Rainfall best represented in Oahu

  17. Hawaiian Rainfall (April 2014) Total (inches) Departure (inches) Lihue 0.7 Lihue -1.6 Kahului +1.0 Kahului 2.5 Honolulu -0.3 Honolulu 0.3 ? Int’l Airport in west part of city has normal of 0.63”; some sources say “Honolulu” (non-airport site?) gets ~1.5” Hilo 13.4 Hilo +1.8 Prelim data from NWSFO Honolulu, HI (Monthly Weather Summary)

  18. III. Verification of FMA & April 2014 Outlooks

  19. * * Rick Thoman, Fairbanks WFO

  20. Marine Layer / Backdoor Fronts?

  21. IV. Drought

  22. DROUGHT MONITOR April 1 April 29 Easing Worsening

  23. Monthly-Average Stream flow for the month of year CPC Soil Moisture Anomaly APRIL 2014 MARCH 2014

  24. V. Selected Weather Events

  25. Severe Weather (April 2014) Tornadoes Hail Straight-line Winds

  26. Severe Weather (April 27-29) Tornadoes: 36 / 108 / 13 Severe Hail (1”+): 107 / 59 / 34……….. Large Hail (2”+): 6 / 2 / 2 Severe Winds (50 kts +): 105 / 173 / 60…… High Winds (65 kts +): 1 / 0 / 2

  27. (minimal) Typhoon Tapah* http://www.earthweek.com/2014/ew140502/ew140502e.gif *Tapah: may refer to a Malaysian species of huge freshwater catfish, called Wallago attu

  28. Typhoon Tapah High surf & occasionally gusty winds to Guam & the Northern Marianas NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP; Tapah ~150 NM northeast of Saipan http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/20140429.030347.npp_.viirs_.visible.tc1406wtapah.res1km_covg99p14_0.jpg

  29. Typhoon Tapah Cloud tops ~ -52C NASA Aqua 4/29 03:47 UTC http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/2014/tapahthrough.jpg Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

  30. April 29-30 Slow-moving Storm 29th 29th 29th 30th

  31. Very Heavy Rainfall & Sinkholes Pensacola n/c-Baltimore Charles Village neighborhood 4/30/14 Interesting Stats (WFO): Pensacola: 29.53” of rain in April…. 25.21” above normal… Wettest April & wettest month ever recorded… BALTIMORE CITY... (NWSFO) HAMILTON 6.50 COCORAHS NE BALTIMORE 6.26 PUBLIC 1 N MOUNT WASHINGTON 5.96 COCORAHS MD SCIENCE CENTER 5.77 KDMH ASOS Mobile: 18.09” of rain in April… 13.30” above normal… Wettest April ever & 8th wettest month… Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin: Pensacola: 20.47” (April 29-30)” www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20140430-severe_weather_maryland.jpg.ece/BINARY/w620x413/Severe_Weather_Maryland.jpg www.dallasnews.com/news/local-news/20140430-deluge-pounds-florida-alabama-storm-moves-up-east-coast.ece

  32. VI. Outlooks for May & MJJ 2014 & MDO

  33. MAY TEMP MAY PRCP MJJ TEMP MJJ PRCP

  34. I will bench-press CPC for breakfast !! !

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