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Climate & Ecosystems Program

Climate & Ecosystems Program. Kenric Osgood Office of Science & Technology National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA. Climate & Ecosystems. Performance Objective: Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. Climate Strategy:

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Climate & Ecosystems Program

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  1. Climate & Ecosystems Program Kenric Osgood Office of Science & Technology National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA

  2. Climate & Ecosystems Performance Objective: Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems. Climate Strategy: Develop the ability to predict the consequences of climate change on ecosystems by monitoring changes in coastal and marine ecosystems, conducting research on climate-ecosystem linkages, and incorporating climate information into physical-biological models.

  3. Climate & Ecosystems • Requirements: • Monitor, understand and predict the impacts of global climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems. • Improve management of marine fisheries, marine mammals and protected marine species by accounting for the impacts of climate variability and change on marine systems and their living marine resources. • Evaluate and provide forecasts of climate impacts on coastal ecosystems, including coral ecosystems, and provide the ability to predict future impacts. Capabilities: Monitor changes in coastal and marine ecosystems Develop biophysical indicators and models End-State: An ability to predict probable consequences of climate change on ecological systems enabling improved management of living marine resources

  4. Climate & Ecosystems Unique Role of Program: NOAA has management responsibilities for coastal and living marine resources, including marine fisheries and protected marine species. No other program within NOAA has the responsibility to account for ecosystem responses to climate variability/change. • Products/Climate Services: • Delivery to living marine resource and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporate climate variability/change into the management of coastal and living marine resources. • Indices • Models

  5. Climate & Ecosystems Highlights/Past Successes: North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP)

  6. Climate & Ecosystems Activities within the Program Role of the competitive programs

  7. Climate & Ecosystems • Impact of FY05 and FY06 Budget on Program Activities • Role of internal/external funding • Priorities for the Program based on the FY05 and FY06 Budget

  8. Climate & Ecosystems Future directions for the Program FY07-13 under constrained budget Continue North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity Build a competitive component to the Climate & Ecosystems Program. Expand the scope of the Climate & Ecosystems Program.

  9. These returns are “linked to the PDO” During cold phase of the PDO salmon do well and vice versa The anomaly of counts of Chinook salmon at the Bonneville Dam. Percent of coho salmon that return to their hatcheries.

  10. Migration pattern of Pacific sardines and Pacific hake, redrawn from Saunders and McFarlane 1997. Idealized conditions are indicated, since the extent and location of spawning and feeding habitats, and the coastal migrations of hake and sardine vary with ocean and climate conditions.

  11. Is marsh building adequate to keep pace with subsidence and sea-level rise?

  12. Coupling retrospective analysis with SST forecast models, Bleaching Forecasts would allow researchers to plan accelerated monitoring and managers to take actions to reduce other stressors 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent A Changing Thermal Regime for Marine Ecosystems 2005 CARIBBEAN EVENT • Widespread Thermal Stress and Coral Bleaching • Thermal stress in the Caribbean reached record-breaking levels • Severe coral bleaching throughout the eastern Caribbean (~ 25% mortality) Percent Coral Cover Bleached Caribbean ‘05 DHW Annual Composite Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) Coral Reef Bleaching Forecasts 1998 bleaching 2005 bleaching

  13. As ocean saturation state decreases, a concomitant reduction in calcification rates can occur. Reduced extension rates Weaker skeletons Monitoring changes in marine ecosystems in response to ocean acidification will demand improving our ecosystem observing capabilities at multiple scales. A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems Ocean Acidification That ‘other’ CO2 problem Shell dissolution in live pteropod Benthic marine calcifiers

  14. Climate and EutrophicationSeven year correlation between monthly averaged precipitation and chlorophyll anomalies along SE coast.Shown below: data for February 1998

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