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Climate “Sensitivity” and Impact on Agriculture In The Sahel

Climate “Sensitivity” and Impact on Agriculture In The Sahel. Abdoulaye SARR AIACC- AF20 Johannesburg S.A March 10-14, 2003. Problem?. Climate Circulation Anomalies Long and Frequent dry spells Critical Agricultural Campain Below normal rainfall Negative Impact on Production.

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Climate “Sensitivity” and Impact on Agriculture In The Sahel

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  1. Climate “Sensitivity” and Impact on Agriculture In The Sahel Abdoulaye SARR AIACC- AF20 Johannesburg S.A March 10-14, 2003

  2. Problem? • Climate Circulation Anomalies • Long and Frequent dry spells • Critical Agricultural Campain • Below normal rainfall • Negative Impact on Production Socio-economic Consequences

  3. AREA Sahel

  4. Climate Caracteristics • Long drought 1968- 1987 • Improvement Since 1988 - With irregular occurrence of dry years - High Spatial Variability

  5. Review of Documented Dynamical Factors Influencing Rainfall in Sahel: • Anomalous warm SST in the tropical atlantic • anomalous atmospheric circulation in the tropics • Most consistently demonstrated difference between wet and dry years in the Sahel is the strength of the AEJ and its location in latitude (Farther N in Wet Years). • The TEJ may also play an important role :dry years (weak TEJ), Wet years (strong TEJ).

  6. Authors among Many others ( Kidson 1977; Tanaka 1975; Kanamitsu and Krishnamurti 1978; Lamb, 1978 a,b; Nevell and Kidson 1979, 1984; Dennet 1985; Folland 1986; Fontaine and Janicot 1992; Fontaine 1995, Jenkins, 1998; Grist and Nicholson, 2001)

  7. Application to the dry Summer Season 2002 over Sahel

  8. SLP anomaly for July 2001 (above) and (2002) below.

  9. Geopotential height anomaly (gpm) at 850 for July 2001 (above) and 2002 (below).

  10. Skt anomalies July 2002

  11. Mean position AEJ wet and dry years

  12. Mean zonal wind at 700 hPa July 2002

  13. Rainrate anomaly for 2001 (above) and 2002 (below)

  14. June 2002 Precip

  15. July 2002 Precip (1dg GPCC)

  16. August 2002 Precip

  17. September 2002 Precip

  18. October 2002 Precip

  19. Precip Percentage of Normal (1961-1990) July 2002

  20. Precipitation precentage of Normal (1961-1990) for August 2002

  21. Impact on Agriculture

  22. Ground-nut Production For 2000 (1), 2001 (2) and 2002(3)

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