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Lecture: 1 - Introduction

Lecture: 1 - Introduction. COURSE SYLLABUS COURSE OUTLINE Objective valuation - tools and models Choose investments - rules for choosing Finance investments - debt vs. equity, long vs. short OBJECTIVE VALUATION EXAMPLE: Pedro Martinez contract averages 14mm

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Lecture: 1 - Introduction

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  1. Lecture: 1 - Introduction • COURSE SYLLABUS • COURSE OUTLINE • Objective valuation - tools and models • Choose investments - rules for choosing • Finance investments - debt vs. equity, long vs. short • OBJECTIVE VALUATION • EXAMPLE: Pedro Martinez contract averages 14mm • while Mike Mussina’s averages 14.5mm • years: 1 2 3 4 5 6 • Martinez $12 13 14 15 15 15 • Mussina $10 11 12 16 19 19 • You can compare the two using "Present Value" which means discounting dollars to be received in the future so that they are equivalent to dollars received now. Maybe adjust for risk if pay depends on uncertain performance. You are probably more familiar with "Future Value" which is the number of dollars you expect to have in the future if you leave a specific number of present dollars in a bank account earning interest at k percent per year. Present value is just the inverse of future value.

  2. SETTING - MOST PEOPLE USE PRESENT VALUE INTUITIVELY EVERY DAY QUESTION: How do you decide whether to buy a snow blower (lawn mower)? ANSWER: Estimate present value of future plowing, discount, and compare to snow blower price. Other considerations may include time to shovel, back-ache, plow digs up lawn/pavement and doesn't come on time. QUESTION: How do you decide how often to change the oil or coolant in your car? QUESTION: How do you decide whether to replace breaks, tire, clutch etc. in your car? QUESTION: How do you decide how much to save now for retirement or a major future purchase ? NEED TO CONSIDER THAT FUTURE CASH FLOWS ARE WORTH LESS THAN PRESENT CASH FLOWS. Discount - as in "discounting" what a person who exaggerates says. Compound - how the difficulty increases if you have three finals in one day.

  3. Lecture: 2 - Calculating Value Time Value of Money “A Dollar is Worth More Today Than a Dollar Tomorrow” Illustration - Pie Concept Maximize the Value of a Firm or the Size of the Pie Three Basic Ideas Affect the Size of the Pie: 1. Timing of Cash Flows - Ingredients in the Pie 2. Valuation of Stocks/Bonds - Size of Pie 3. Risk - Baking Conditions Visualize as Follows: V = S + B V= S+ B Factor First Condition Second Condition Cash Flows: More Less Timing of Cash Flows: Sooner Later Riskiness of Cash Flows: Less More Produces Larger Pie Produces Smaller Pie

  4. Lecture: 2 - Calculating Value Time Value of Money “A Dollar is Worth More Today Than a Dollar Tomorrow” I. Time Value of Money - A Formula for Every Situation II. Future Value and Present Value of a Single Cash Flow III. Present Value is the Inverse of Future Value IV. Future Value and Present Value of Multiple Cash Flows a. Equal annual cash flows (Annuities) b. Infinite Annuities (Perpetuities) c. Multiple Unequal Cash Flows V. Solving for an Unknown (Implied) Interest Rate a. Given Present Value and Future Value, find IRR (Internal Rate of Return)

  5. Lecture: 2 - Calculating Value Interest Rates “Cost on Borrowed Funds or Rate Received on Money Lent” I. Nominal vs. Effective Annual Interest Rates a. Adjust n for New Number of Periods b. Adjust k for New (Lower) Rate for Portion of Year II. Effective vs. Nominal III. Continuous Compounding a. Earn Interest Every “Moment” Money is Invested b. Earn Interest on “Interest” as Well c. Future Value - Continuous Compounding d. Present Value - Continuous Discounting

  6. Future Value “Taking a Cash Flow Today and Determining What It will be Worth Sometime in the Future at a Given Interest Rate, k” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Future Value General Formula FVn = PV0(1+k)n = PV0(1+k)n = PV0(FVk,n) Note: FVn = Future Value at the End of n Periods PV0 = Present Value Now (Time = 0) k = the Interest (Discount or Compound) Rate n = the Number of Periods in the Future FVk,n = Future Value Interest Factor (Table A3) II. Example: Suppose you have $5,000 and the interest rate is 15% and you wish to invest for 4 years, how much will you have at the end of 4 years? FV4 = PV0(1 + .15)4 = PV0(FV.15,4) = $5,000(1.15)4 = $5,000(1.75) = $8,745

  7. PROBLEM: Suppose your company made $50 million this year and you expect profit to grow by 15% per year for the next 4 years. What will profit be at the end of 4 years? ANSWER: $50(1 + .15)4 = $87.45 million Note: This is the same basic problem as the previous problem but with different language.

  8. Present Value “Inverse of Future Value and Gives the Value Today of Money Received in the Future” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Present Value General Formula PV0 = = FVn = FVn(PVk,n) Note: PVk,n = Present Value Interest Factor (Table A1) II. Example: What is the value of $100 to be received at the end of 10 years if the k = 10%? PV0 = $100/(1+.10)10 = $100/2.54 = 100[PV.10,10] = $100[.386] = $38.6 PROBLEM: Suppose you need $10,000 to pay off a loan in 10 years. How much do you need to put in the bank today at a 10% interest rate to have the $10,000 then? PV0 = $3,860

  9. Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity “Future Value of a Series of Equal Cash Flows Received at the End of Each Period for a Specified Number of Periods” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity General Formula FVAn = PMT[FVAk,n] Note: FVAn = Future Value of an n-Period Annuity PMT = Constant Annuity Payment FVAk,n = Future Value Interest Factor for an Annuity (Table A4) II. Example: Suppose you save $100 at the end of each year for 3 years - k = 10%. How much will you have in the account after 3 years? FVA3 = $100 [((1+.10)3 - 1)/.10] = $100 [FVA.10,3] = $100(3.310) = $331.00

  10. Future Value of an Annuity Due “Future Value of a Series of Equal Cash Flows Received at the Beginning of Each Period for a Specified Number of Periods” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Future Value of an Annuity Due General Formula FVAn = PMT[FVAk,n] (1 + k) Note: Just multiply the ordinary annuity formula by (1 + k). II. Example: Suppose you save $100 at the beginning of each year for 3 years - k = 10%. How much will you have in the account after 3 years? FVA3 = $100 [((1+.10)3 - 1)/.10](1 + .10) = $100 [FVA.10,3](1 + .10) = $100(3.310)(1 + .10) = $364.10

  11. Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity “Present Value of a Series of Equal Cash Flows Paid at the End of Each Period for a Specified Number of Periods” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity General Formula PVAn = PMT = PMT[PVAk,n] Note: PVAn = Present Value of an n-Period Annuity PMT = Constant Annuity Payment PVAk,n = Present Value Interest Factor for an Annuity (Table A2) II. Example: You just won megabucks for $3.0M to be paid over 20 yearly payments. How much did you really win in present value dollars if k = 10%. PMT = $150,000 (If Taxed at 30%, PMT = $100,000) PVA20= $150,000[1/.10 - 1/(1+.1)20/.1] = $150,000[PVA.10,20] = $150,000(8.514) = $1,277,100 (Less than Half) If Taxed -> $105,000(8.514) = $894,000

  12. Note: For the Present Value of an Annuity Due, just multiply the above by (1 + k) because the money is earning interest for one additional year. For an Infinite Annuity the formula above reduces to PVA = PMT [1/k] = PMT/k Example: Redo the Lottery example except assume that you receive payments for ever. PVA = $150,000/.10 = $1,500,000 This is not much more than a receiving payments for only 20 years because payments after 20 years are not worth much - discounted heavily. Note: The infinite annuity is often a good approximation to a long annuity and is easy to calculate.

  13. Multiple Unequal Cash Flows “Present and Future Values are Additive so the Value of Multiple Unequal Cash Flows is Just the Sum of the Individual Present or Future Values” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value Example: Present Value - Multiple Unequal Cash Flows YEAR CF 1 $200 2 $200 3 $300 PV = $200(1/1.10) + $200(1/1.10)2 + $300(1/1.10)3 = $200 (PV.10,1) + $200 (PV.10,2) + $300 (PV.10,3) = $200(.909) + $200(.826) + $300(.751) = $181.8 + $165.2 + $225.3 = $572.3 use table A1 Alternatively, you could find the value as a $200 annuity for 3 years plus a $100 cash flow in the third year. PV = $200[PVA.10,3] + $100[PV.10,3] = $200[2.487] + $100[.751] = 497.4 + 75.1 = $572.5

  14. There are other possibilities as well.

  15. Assume in the previous example you receive 300 in year 3 and in each year forever afterward. The Present Value is PV = $200[PVA.10,2] + 300/.10 [PV.10,2] = $200[1.735] + $3000[.826] = $347 + $2478 = $2825 HINT: For Problems Like This, Break Into Parts.

  16. Visual of Formula for Annuities that Start Later in Time

  17. PROBLEM: Suppose someone offers you any of the following 3 series of cash flows. Which do you want if k = 20% Year Cash Flows . 123 1 $200 0 0 2 $200 0 0 3 $200 $1000 $400 4 $200 0 $400 5 $200 0 $400 ANSWER: Choose 1. At high interest rates ignore 2. at 20%at 3% 1. PV = 598 PV = 915.94 2. PV = 579 PV = 915.14 3. PV = 585 PV = 1066.5 QUESTION: What would you do if k = 3%? - choose 3. NOTE: Low Japanese interest rates may explain their long- term view.Remember, behavior is driven by financial incentives.

  18. Determining Implied Interest Rates Note: This is where the tables are helpful. SINGLE CASH FLOW Suppose we have one cash flow and the present value and future value - we get the interest rate by solving for PVk,n. PV0 = FVn[PVk, n] PVk, n = PROBLEM: Suppose you borrow $5,000 Today and agree to payback $10,000 in 7 years. What was the interest rate? PV?, 7 = $5,000/$10,000 = .5 => k = 10-11% See Table A1 - Find the entry closest to .5 in row 7 - about 10%. ANNUITIES - SAME IDEA PV0 = PMT[PVAk, n] PVAk, n =

  19. PROBLEM: Suppose you borrow $5000 and agree to pay $1500 per year for 7 years to pay off the loan. What is the implied interest rate? PVA?, 7 = $5000/$1500 = 3.33 => k = 23% Note: See Table A2 QUESTION:In the previous problem you paid a total of $10,000 while here you paid $10,500. Why the large difference in implied interest rate? ANSWER: Interim payments worth more than one balloon payment in last year. WHEN WE HAVE AN UNEVEN SERIES OF CASH FLOWS ONE MUST USE TRIAL AND ERROR - OR IRR CALCULATOR. Example: If you pay $5000 to receive cash flows in the future of (1) 2000, (2) 2000, (3) 3000, you get the interest rate as follows; Try 10% 5000 = 2000[PVk, 1 ] + 2000[PVk, 2 ] + 3000[PVk, 3 ] = 2000(.909) + 2000(.826) + 3000(.751) = 1818 + 1652 + 2252 = 5722 <= too large!

  20. Try 13% 5000 = 2000(.884) + 2000(.781) + 3000(.69) = 1768 + 1562 + 2072 = 5404 Try 16% 5000 = 2000(.862) + 2000(.743) + 3000(.64) = 1724 + 1486 + 1921 = 5131 Try 18% 5000 = 2000(.847) + 2000(.717) + 3000(.608) = 1694 + 1434 + 1824 = 4952 ==> Between 17-18%; Closer TO 18%

  21. Applications GROWTH RATES - EARNINGS OR SALES GROWTH PROBLEM: A company earned the following amounts in the past 5 years - What was their earnings growth rate? FIRST: What formula is required? Earn Year $1000 1 $1500 2 $1725 3 $2250 4 $2500 5 $1000 = PV?. 4 ($2500) $1000/$2500 = .40 = PV?. 4 =>k = 26% FUTURE SUMS Suppose a company sells $1000 of bonds which mature in 5 years. How much must be put in a sinking fund yearly to pay off the bonds if k = 10%. FIRST: What formula? FV = $1000 = PMT[FVA.10,5] = PMT(6.105) => PMT = $1000/6.105 = $164

  22. Applications Continued TERM LOANS- CAPITAL RECOVERY / LOAN AMORTIZATION - MORTGAGE If you take out a $10,000 car loan at 10% interest rate and make 5 yearly payments. What will the payments be? FIRST: What formula? PV = $10,000 = PMT[PVA.10, 5] =PMT[3.791] PMT = $10,000/3.791= $2637.82

  23. Effective vs. Nominal Interest Rates “The Effective Rate is the True Rate of Interest per Year and the Nominal Rate is the Quoted Rate per Year” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Effective vs. Nominal keff = (1+knom/m)m - 1 If interest is compounded “m” times annually, we must adjust k and n in the formulas above, to take account of the additional interest earned during a year. II. Example: A nominal rate of 16% is compounded quarterly. Thus, each quarter we earn 4% on the money in the account. k4 = k/m = 16%/4 = 4% keff = (1+knom/m)m - 1 = (1+.16/4)4-1 = .1698 => 17% (Effective Rate) Therefore, although the nominal rate is 16%, we effectively earn about 17%.

  24. PROBLEM: Suppose you must make $500 monthly car payments for 2 years. What is the present value (Loan Amount) of the payments if knominal = 24%? mn = 12 * 2 = 24 k = 24%/12 = 2% PV0 = 500[PVA.02, 24] = 500[18.914] = 9457

  25. Continuous Compounding “Money is Invested Continuously and Earns Interest Every Instant that You Have the Money Invested ” Lecture 2 - Calculating Value I. Continuous Compounding Future Value FVn = PV0ekn Continuous Discounting Present Value PV0 = FVne-kn II. Example: What is the present value of $10,000 to be received in two years if the interest rate is 8% and continuous discounting is employed? How about with annual discounting? (Continuous) PV0 = $10,000e-.08(2) = $8,521 (Annual) PV0 = $10,000[1/(1 + .08)]2 = 10,000[PV.08, 2] = $8,570 Note: The factor e-.08(2) differs a bit from [1/(1 + .08)]2 because of continuous discounting.

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