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Presentation to: IAPH Regional Conference, Ho Chi Minh City

Presentation to: IAPH Regional Conference, Ho Chi Minh City. Asian Economic Integration: Implication for Transport 1-2 February 2007 Steve Meyrick. Past Asian economic growth…. Source: Meyrick, based on analysis of World Bank World Development Indicators.

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Presentation to: IAPH Regional Conference, Ho Chi Minh City

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  1. Presentation to:IAPH Regional Conference, Ho Chi Minh City Asian Economic Integration: Implication for Transport 1-2 February 2007 Steve Meyrick

  2. Past Asian economic growth… Source: Meyrick, based on analysis of World Bank World Development Indicators

  3. ..and what lies ahead in the short term… Source: Meyrick, based on IMF World Economic Outlook database

  4. ...and in the longer term Source: Meyrick, based on IMF World Economic Outlook

  5. Share of world output Source: Meyrick, based on IMF World Economic Outlook

  6. Variations within Asia Source: Meyrick, based on analysis of IMF data

  7. Asian container volumes 2004 187 m TEU 1992 41 m TEU Source: Meyrick and Associates, based on analysis of Ci-Online data (2007)

  8. World Container Traffic (Full container flows) Source: KMI/ESCAP MPPM Model (2007)

  9. Regional growth rates (2002-2015) (full TEU) Source: KMI/ESCAP MPPM Model (2007))

  10. Port Throughput 2015 (TEU) Source: Compiled by Meyrick from Drewry, OSC and KMI/MPPM model

  11. Structure of East Asian Container Market Source: Meyrick, based on Ci-Online Data (2007)

  12. Relative growth – major trade groups 1999-2015 224% 295% 249% Source: KMI/ESCAP MPPM Model (2007)

  13. A quick comparison

  14. Direction of Indian Trade Source: Global Insights, as reported in Containerisation International Dec 2006

  15. Intra-Asian flows, 2015 Source: KMI/ESCAP MPPM Model (2007)

  16. Changes in balance of trade flows Trans-Pacific trade Europe-Asia Trade 2006 trade as % of 1990 trade Trans-Pacific 376% Asia-Europe 804% Source: Meyrick and Associates, based on Drewry Shipping Consultants (1990) and Ci-Online data (2007)

  17. Changes in vessel size Source: Meyrick, internal data base

  18. The Post-Panamax tidal wave Source: Meyrick based on Drewry 2006

  19. Consolidation in shipping.. Share of top 20 container lines in total capacity Note: cellular vessels only Source: Containerisation International

  20. ..and in terminals Total throughput of major global terminal operators in 2005. In 1991, top 5 operators accounted for 17% of the business Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants, as reported by Containerisation International, Dec 2006

  21. ACL MISC New World APL Hyundai MOL CHKY Cosco K-Line Yangming MSC Increasingly complex relationships Hapag Lloyd NYK OOCL United Senator UASC Hanjin Maersk Line, inc. P&O Nedlloyd Evergreen

  22. Hubs and Spokes TOY VAN NGY PUS KOB SEA HFX QIN OAK NYJ HKT SHA LAX NBO NFK LGB XMN KHH SAV MIA YTN HKG SHK MIT LCH PKG COL SIN How we thought it might work out……

  23. JCX CKX PNX SCX PAX SSX FEX ECX AEX Changes in Service Patterns TOY VAN NGY PUS SEA YOK KOB HFX QIN OAK NYJ HKT SHA LAX NBO NFK LGB XMN KHH SAV MIA YTN HKG SHK MIT LCH PKG COL SIN GRAND ALLIANCE ASIA – NORTH AMERICA SERVICES Source: Meyrick, based on Containerisation International Yearbook 2002

  24. JCX CKX PNX SCX PAX SSX FEX ECX AEX Changes in Service Patterns TOY VAN NGY PUS SEA YOK KOB HFX QIN OAK NYJ HKT SHA LAX NBO NFK LGB XMN KHH SAV MIA YTN HKG SHK MIT LCH PKG COL SIN GRAND ALLIANCE ASIA – NORTH AMERICA SERVICES - How it actually worked out Source: Meyrick, based on Containerisation International Yearbook 2002

  25. Changes on the trans-Pacific Source: Meyrick, based on data from CIY Yearbook & International Transportation Handbook

  26. Qingdao Shanghai HONG KONG Manila Tanjung Perak Tanjung Priok Service Innovation CGM-CMA/Cheng Lie “China 1” Service

  27. Laem Chabang Port Klang Singapore Tanjung Priok Service Innovation (2) Regional Container Lines ‘RPX’ service

  28. Increased complexity of regional operations • Increase in scale • Largest vessels from 2,500 TEU in 1996 to 4,300 TEU today • Average vessel size increase by over 30% 1995-2005 • Emergence of sophisticated regional specialists • Wan Hai • RCL • PIL • KMTC • Increasing interest in regional operations by Global Operators • Wayport calls of mainline vessels • Regional subsidiaries or alliances with regional carriers • Regional logistics subsidiaries

  29. Carrier-Terminal cooperation

  30. Terminal Automation Automated Straddle Carrier at Patrick Terminal, Brisbane Australia Source: Kalmar Corporation Website

  31. New terminal designs Ceres Paragon Terminal Amsterdam Source: Port of Amsterdam Website

  32. Some key challenges • Providing the capacity • Improving hinterland connections • Dealing with larger vessels • Renegotiating relationships • Meeting customer expectations

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