Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 October 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights Australia: Showers continued across portions of southern Queensland’s wheat belt during the previous week. The GFS forecasts widespread rainfall across the eastern third of Australia, including the southeastern wheat belt. Southern Africa:Light showers were observed across portions of eastern South Africa during the previous week. The GFS forecasts increased rains in Kwazulu Natal’s coastal region during the upcoming week. South America: Frontal rainfall continued across Brazil’s southern tier, with the GFS forecasting the onset of the rainy season across most central locations in the upcoming two weeks. Light rainfall fell across northeastern Argentina during the previous week, with increased rainfall forecast across central farmlands.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean. • La Niña is expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. During the last 4-weeks (12 Sep – 9 Oct 2010), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average east of the International Date Line. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO signal strengthened considerably during the previous week, with a steady eastward propagation of the enhanced precipitation phase.. The GEFS forecast indicates continued eastward propagation in week 1, with weakening and greater uncertainty in week 2 as the MJO interacts with the La Nina cooled Pacific Ocean. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR The dry season continued across southern Africa during the previous 90 days. Rainfall deficits greater than 30mm were observed across much of South Africa and southern Mozambique, including parts of Western Cape province. Below-average precipitation was observed across most of Brazil during the previous 90 days. In contrast, areas of above-average rainfall were observed across northern Argentina through southern Brazil, and along Brazil’s northeastern tip. Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across much of Australia during the previous 90 days. A small area of below-average rainfall was observed in Western Australia’s primary wheat growing region. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation A A C A C A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 3 – 9 Oct 2010, weakly enhanced upper-level cyclonic circulation was observed across western Australia and western South America.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 3 – 9 October, areas of rising motion (negative omega) were observed across northern Australia and south central Brazil. These areas were associated with showery weather.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, showers continued from central Australia eastward into portions of the eastern wheat belt.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 15 days, widespread wet weather persisted across northern Australia, with drier weather prevailing along the southern tier.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, above-average rainfall was observed across Queensland and New South Wales, with below average rainfall across the wheat belt from Western Australia eastward through Victoria.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series across the Australian wheat belt depict the increasing short term deficits across the southern tier of the wheat belt, contrasting with plentiful rainfall in southern Queensland.

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • Near-average temperatures were observed across Australia’s agricultural areas.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (11 – 17 Oct 2010), widespread rainfall is expected across the eastern third of Australia, with heavy rainfall also possible across north central Australia.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (18 – 24 Oct 2010), decreased rainfall is forecast across most of Australia, with lingering showers in Queensland.

17. Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Forecast from 4 Oct 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Observed 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Australia

18. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • During the last 7 days, light showers were observed across eastern South Africa.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, below-average rainfall was observed across eastern South Africa.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed across most of South Africa and southern Mozambique.

22. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the continued dry weather across most of southern Africa. Rainfall fell across eastern South Africa (top right panel) though 30 day deficits remain above 30mm.

23. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Above-average temperatures were observed across southern Africa for a second week.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (11 – 17 Oct 2010), heavier rainfall is forecast along the Kwazulu Natal coastline in South Africa.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (18 – 24 Oct 2010) rainfall is forecast to spread across eastern South Africa.

26. Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Forecast from 4 Oct 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Observed 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Southern Africa

27. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • First Freeze in southern Argentina • GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Heavy rain continued across portions of Parana, Brazil during the previous week. Light scattered showers developed across Brazil’s central western and southeastern farmlands, with accumulations still near to below-average for this time of year. The monsoon remains weak and delayed. • Light showers were observed across Argentina’s northeastern quadrant during the previous week. Brazil Argentina

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • Above average rainfall across portions of south central and southern Brazil contrasted with below-average rainfall observed elsewhere, including Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil. • Rainfall was widespread across Argentina during the previous two weeks, with above-average accumulations observed in La Pampa and Cordoba. Brazil Argentina

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Generally below-average rainfall was observed across Brazil, with areas of above-average rainfall across southern Brazil. • Near average rainfall was observed across Argentina, with an area of below-average rainfall observed across southwestern Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • Below-average rainfall continued across central Brazil with light showers, but deficits further southeast eroded due to a stalled front. Near average rainfall accumulations were observed across northern Argentina and far southern Brazil.

32. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Pre monsoon heat continued across much of northern and central Brazil.

33. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Near average temperatures overspread Argentina, with no widespread freezes observed in primary wheat growing areas for a second week.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (11 – 17 Oct 2010), increased rainfall is possible across central and southern Brazil during the upcoming week.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 11 Oct 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (18 – 24 Oct 2010), widespread heavy rainfall is forecast across central Brazil, which would mark the beginning of the rainy season in most locations.

36. Forecast from 27 Sep 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Forecast from 4 Oct 2010 Valid 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Observed 4 – 10 Oct 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: South America

37. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information