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NSS SSG Space Weather Architecture Study Transition

Space Weather. NSS SSG Space Weather Architecture Study Transition. 28 September 1999. Briefing Purpose. Provide Space Weather ADT Overview Review Transition Plan Development Summarize Space Weather Transition Plan Show Relationship with the National Space Weather Program (NSWP)

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NSS SSG Space Weather Architecture Study Transition

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  1. Space Weather NSS SSG Space Weather Architecture StudyTransition 28 September 1999

  2. Briefing Purpose • Provide Space Weather ADT Overview • Review Transition Plan Development • Summarize Space Weather Transition Plan • Show Relationship with the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) • Set the Stage for: • Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG • Signing of the Space Weather Architecture Implementation Memorandum

  3. Space Weather Overview What is Space Weather? And Why Should I Care? KEY IMPACTS Conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems as well as endanger human life and health . - Space Weather TOR 1998 Ionospheric Space Density Scintillation Radiation HF Comm  GB Radar   GPS   SB Radar   Geolocation  UHF SATCOM  Other SATCOM  SBIRS  SB EO Imager  Domains: Solar, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, & Thermosphere Phenomena: EM Radiation, Charged Particles, Geomagnetic Storms, Electron Density, Scintillation, Neutral Density, Aurora, Solar RFI OTHER IMPACTS • LEO Satellites - Neutral Density, • GBR (Polar) & SBIRS Low- Auroral Emissions • GBR & SATCOM - Solar Radio Noise • Power Grids - Ground Induced Currents

  4. Operational Impacts:Ionospheric Effects on Signals Ionospheric Turbulence Scintillation Undisturbed Ionosphere Ionosphere • GPS Loss of Lock • SATCOM Outages • Radar Interference 0 Signal to Noise Ratio (dB) -4 -8 -12 -16 Scintillation Onset -20 -24 -28 -32 Time : 5 Min Increments Electron Density Bend & Delay X Absorb Apparent Location True Location Ionosphere • Radar Errors • Geolocation Errors • GPS Errors • HF Radio Outages

  5. Operational Impacts: Radiation Effects on Spacecraft • Deep and Surface Charging • Caused by Low & High Energy Particles • Discharges cause Upset/Burnout Solar Activity • Surface Damage • Caused by Low Energy Particles, UV & X-Rays • Degradation of Thermal Control Material • Damage to Solar Cells Cosmic Radiation • Single Event Effects (SEE) • Caused by High Energy Particles • Memory Changes • False Sensor Readings • Processor Latch-up • Burnout

  6. DoD International Civil Current Space Weather Support System Space Systems POES GPS/NDS DMSP ACE CLASSIFIED SOHO GOES Yohkoh DSP Commercial Users SEC (NOAA) 55 SWXS (AFSPC) DoD Users Ground Stations • Canadian Radio Observatory • Australian Observatory • Australian Ionospheric Network (5) • Solar Optical Observing Network (4) • Radio Solar Telescope Network (4) • Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16) • Ionospheric Measuring System (5) • Neutron Monitor (1) • Riometer (1) • National Solar Observatories (2) • JPL TEC Monitors (25) • Archival Center • USGS Magnetometer Network (13)

  7. Future Needs PastPresentFuture Surveillance & Comms Weapons Support, Space Station, Power Grids Space Control Weapons Delivery Increased Demands Example System Impacts • Coverage • Timeliness • Accuracy • C2 • Situational Awareness • Scintillation limits space-based radar coverage • Radiation limits processing for direct downlink • Electron density causes geolocation errors • Scintillation breaks space-based cell phone links • ISR satellite failures to charging

  8. SWx Architecture Study Dec 97 Apr 98 ORWG TWG Integration Panel Phase I “So What” Phase II Decision Point Analysis Team Cost Team Phase IIA Phase IIB Post ADT Integration Panel Integration Panel SWx Agencies Transition Team Integration Panel Design Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Analysis I III NSSA Tracking Cost II Each Team Determine Axis & Define Architecture Alternatives DCG & SSG Review & Approve Tiger * ADT Consensus Sep 99+ May 98 Jul 98 Aug 98 Jan 99

  9. 9 SWx Architecture StudyRecommendations Pursue a Space Weather Architecture Vector Space Weather Importance Awareness Space Weather Requirements Coordinated Space Weather Architecture Acquisition Space Weather Information Archive Integrated User Information Centralized Space Weather Center Research & Development are Key to Space Weather Architecture SWx and Man-Made Effects Information Coordination

  10. SWx Architecture Deliverables • 22 March 1999 • NSS SSG Briefing • Draft Architecture Guidance Memo • Transition Strategy • Study Final Report 31 July 1999 • CD Archive of Study 28 September 1999 • Transition Plan • Architecture Implementation Memo 30 April 1999 • Final Report Background Material • ASD (C3I) & NOAA directed to lead Space Weather Architecture Transition Team • Team tasked to develop an Architecture Transition Plan • Series of meetings, working groups, assignments used to build plan • Stake holder organizations participated • Team membership • Organizational coordination and endorsement • Comments/concerns resolved and incorporated into plan • SWx Community prepared to implement plan • NSWP Implementation Plan development/coordination

  11. Transition Team Schedule Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep DCG2 SSG-WG SSG SSG-WG SSG Transition Plan Development Meetings Transition Strategy Draft Final Coordination Draft Draft Final Plan Roadmap Final Plan Stakeholders Roles & Responsibilities ID Orgs Working Coordinate/Implement Coordination Mtg K/O Mtg Working Group Meetings Lead Support Track NSSA Effort ODASD(C3I) & NOAA Support Lead Support

  12. Transition Planning Responsibilities NAVSPACE USASMDC - OCR USSPACE - Overall S - Support ASDC3I NOAA AFSPC AF/XOW DOT/FAA NRO NASA SMC LABs NSF DTRA DOE DOI OFCM NSSA - OPR S OVERALL TRANSITION PLANNING 1. Pursue Recommended SWx Arch Vector 2. Integrate SWx into User Systems 3. Develop & Update SWx Requirements 4. Identify Cognizant DoD Acquisition Agent 5. Consolidate and Expand Archival System 6. Provide SWx Info in User Terms and use Common Dissemination Channels 7. Evolve to an Integrated SWx Center 8a. Provide a robust R&D to develop Operational Capabilities 8b. Leverage R&D missions 9a. Provide timely data to Space Control Mission 9b. Incorporate Man-made effects into SWx Arch

  13. SWx Transition Plan Development Inputs Outcomes SWx Architecture Study Recommendations Tasks, Actions & Activities Current SWx Support System Architecture Element Timelines Stakeholder Plans and Funding Investment Strategy

  14. SWx Transition Plan Actions Recommendation 1: Space Weather Architecture Vector • Increase emphasis on Operational Model development • Ensure improved Operational Capabilities based on User Needs • National Security priorities include Ionospheric and Radiation Environment Specifications and Forecasts • Civil priorities also include Geomagnetic Warnings and Forecasts • Evolve to Improved Forecast Capabilities, as phenomenology is better understood, models mature and user needs are better defined • Main Actions • Sensors: Design and deploy new/improved SWx space- and ground-based sensors • Models: Develop and implement advanced SWx operational models • Funding: Align funding with prioritized SWx project list

  15. 1 satellite @ “Stereo” Architecture Sensors Suite hosted on 3 NPOESS Telescope package hosted on HEO satellite 1 satellite at Sun-Earth Line Interplanetary All-Sky Cameras (10) 10 Sensors (Polar) SCINTILLATION 18 SBIRS - LO Riometer 2 GEO satellites - Solar and Earth Observations Satellite Drag from Tracking Network 4 SEON 1 LEO Equatorial satellite 20 Sensors (Geomagnetic Equator) SCINTILLATION 50 Sensor Packages (Worldwide) GPS/VHF, Ionosonde, Magnetometer, etc Piggy-back packages of particle detectors hosted on many satellites

  16. Equatorial Scintillation Polar-Orbit Sun Synchronous Solar X-ray/EUV Imager Solar Coronagraph Solar Wind on Sun-Earth line Particle Detectors(LEO to GEO to HEO) Auroral Imager Stereo Solar Observer GPS Occultation Scintillation--Polar and Low Lat TEC Networks Ionosonde Sounders Magnetometer Networks All Sky Cameras Solar Optical/Radio Riometer Chain Satellite Drag Observation C/NOFS C/NOFS Ops NPOESS DMSP/POES EIT YOHKOH SXI Ops EIT Solar Polar Imager Ops CORONAGRAPH LASCO Solar Wind SENTRY GEOSTORMS ACE DSP CEASE GOES Magnetospheric Constellation IMAGE Ops IMAGE STEREO Japan L5 STEREO VIEWER COSMIC GPS/OCCULT SCINDA Ops SCINDA JPL Net Ops TEC NET IONOSONDES INTERMAGNET UPGRADES USGS ALL SKY Ops SYSTEM ISOON/SRBL/SRS SOON/RSTN OPS Riometer Thule DRAG Observer R & D Observing Gap Fully Capable Operational System Less than fully capable operational system SWx Sensor Timeline

  17. Architecture Models Space Weather Models Forecast Warning Specification Solar Flare Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation Solar Wind Solar Energetic Particles Radiation Belt Magnetic Particles & Fields Ionosphere Equatorial Scintillation Polar Scintillation Polar Cap Absorption Neutral Environment Aurora Emissions Aurora Clutter

  18. Operational Models Timelines Neutral Environment Forecast Ionosphere Forecast Magnetospheric Field Forecast Magnetospheric Particle Forecast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Forecast Equatorial Scintillation Forecast Radiation Belt Forecast Solar Energectic Particle Forecast CME Propagation Forecast Solar Flare Forecast Polar Scintillation Forecast Data Assimilation Model Solar Wind Forecast Auroral Emission Specification Auroral Clutter Specification Polar Cap Absorption Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 No model or only empirical models whose accuracy does not meet user requirements Year Model in use includes some physical understanding but does not meet most user requirements Evolved capability but model still does not meet some critical requirements Fully Capable Model

  19. SWx Transition Investment (All Stakeholders)

  20. Other 9% NASA 20% 88% DOD 12% 57% NOAA 14% Air Force Navy DOD Army NOAA NASA Other Space Weather Funding Cost Per Agency Current DoD Share of SWx Funding $200M / year (FY98$) $113M / year (FY98$) 9% Other = NSF @8% and USGS @1%

  21. SWx Transition Plan Actions Recommendation 5: Space Weather Information Archive • Consolidate and Expand the Existing Archival System • Capture Space Weather Environmental Data and System Impacts • The Archival System Should Be: • Centrally Managed • User Focused • Incorporate Standard Formats • Accommodate Multi-level Security • Main Actions • Develop program to archive space weather impacts • Develop program to archive space weather data • Provide climatological studies for system design and planning

  22. Example: Recommendation Actions to Activities

  23. AGM AIM NSSA-NSWP Linkage NSWP Program Council NSSA NSWP Strategic Plan NSSA ADT Committee for Space Weather SWx Architecture Study NSWP Implementation Plan DOD DOC NASA NSF DOT DOE DOI SSG Agency Processes SWx Architecture Transition Plan JROC National Space Weather Capability

  24. The Way Ahead • Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG • Issue Architecture Implementation Memorandum • Space Weather Architecture Stakeholders • Implement Transition Plan • Track progress for their organization’s actions • Recommend Updates and modifications as needed • NSSA and C3I Advocate Space Weather Architecture • Key “Injection Points” (Requirements, Planning & Budget) • Provide NSS SSG Status • Support Stakeholders in coordination as needed • OFCM Monitor and Update Plan as needed • Maintain Transition Plan Database • Track overall progress

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