Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US Natural Hazard Mitigation Association June 27, 2013

1. Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘Protected’ by Levees Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US Natural Hazard Mitigation Association June 27, 2013 University of California, Berkeley United States Fulbright Program Technische Universiteit Delft, Netherlands With contributions from G. Matt Kondolf and John Cain

2. A 100-year Flood is… “The levees were built to protect us for 100 years.”

3. A 100-year Flood is… “A major flood that comes every 100 years— it’s a worst-case scenario.”

4. A 100-year Flood is… “The last flood came in1950— the next one will be in 2050.”

5. I would not evacuate because… “Flooding is unlikely and if flooding occurs, it will be minimal.”

6. I would not evacuate because… “I am handicapped and disabled, and have trouble getting around.”

7. I would not evacuate because… “I swim very well…”

8. I would not evacuate because… “I don’t know where else to go.”

9. Jones Tract, 2004 “I can assure you any efforts you make to communicate risk to these people will be squashed” -(paraphrased) Anonymous City Planner, Unnamed Levee-protected town, United States

10. Introduction Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world (and the US) Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world Arkansas City, AR, 1927 Jones Tract, CA 2004 Sacramento, CA 1850 Australia, 2011; P. Hamilton Thailand 2011: Credit: Lyon Londonderry, VT: Romalo 2011 Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

11. Introduction Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk • Flood damages are rising NOAA photo library New Orleans 1927 New Orleans 1965 New Orleans 2005 Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

12. Introduction Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk • Flood damages are rising, • A fatal flaw in policy: • land behind levees no longer considered official “floodplain” •  increasing development (risk) behind the levees. San Joaquin County, California, 2010 San Joaquin County, California, 2010 Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

13. Introduction Risk =probability X consequences Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012 Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

14. Introduction In the United States, Levees Increase Risk Image: Jessica Ludy Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

15. 55% U.S. Population Lives in Counties Protected by levees- Times Picayune 2010 Sacramento “Pocket” California Dept Water Resources

16. National Flood Insurance Program Flood Insurance Act 1968 • “Discourage” further development in floodplains • Offer flood insurance to those already at risk Goal: to reduce federal expenditures in disaster relief Graphics: Jessica Ludy Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

17. National Flood Insurance Program Flood Insurance Act 1968 Flood Hazard Mapping Floodplain Management Flood Insurance Adopted an insurance standard of 1/100yr flood Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

18. National Flood Insurance Program How it works “In the floodplain” No new development Insurance required “floodproof” houses 100-year floodplain Special Flood Hazard Area Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

19. National Flood Insurance Program Sound Idea: identify flood-prone lands, map them, and prohibit development therein. • “Devil is the the Details” • Land behind levees treated differently “In the floodplain” No new development Insurance required “floodproof” houses “Out of the floodplain” No insurance required No building requirements 100-year floodplain Special Flood Hazard Area Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013

20. 20 100 year flood 10 0 • National Flood Insurance Program • The story of Bill and Bob Bob has to buy flood insurance Bill is ‘safe’ behind a FEMA –accredited levee Graphic: John Cain Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

21. The Question How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their true level of risk? Other studies: Burningham et al (2008): U.K Terpstra and Gutteling (2008): Netherlands Siegrist and Gutscher (2006): Switzerland

22. The Question Why does it matter? Behaviorin an emergency is tied to risk perception Floodlossestend to belarger where people are unaware Exposing people to involuntary risk means people cannot choose to avoid the threat Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

23. How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their true level of risk? • The Question Why does it matter? In afloodplain: water levels rise slowly Behind alevee: wall of water 88 F0 50 F0 Sacramento River, upstream of the Delta Gulf of Mexico, New Orleans Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

24. The Question Factors influencing risk perception Experience Media Trust in structures Trust in administration Benefits Misunderstanding terminology Denial “100-year flood?” Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

25. The Question Trust in structures Trust in administration Benefits Typical “Raised Basement” house, New Orleans Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

26. Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013

27. Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Spanos Park West, Stockton Stockton • New development (2000) • 1300 houses • Reaccredited 100-yr levee (PAL in 2006) Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

28. Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta • 30,800 houses slated for development in San Joaquin County that face a flood threat • (Fridirici, 2008) Stockton Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

29. Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta • Lands from 0 to -4m below sea-level Bear Creek Bear Creek Levee Bear Creek Levee Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

30. Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Development Characteristics Most households earn $80,000/year Most households have a 4-year university degree Ethnically diverse Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

31. Method • Survey questions: awareness, preparation, concern, flood knowledge, experience Bear Creek Pumping station Bear Creek Levee Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

32. Results Survey Results • Residents not awareof flood risk • Not told they are at risk • Unprepared for a flood Photo: Andrea Gaffney Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

33. Results Risk Perception not at all very concerned high somewhat concerned moderate confident somewhat low not at all very no Is your property at risk? • How confident are you that your levee will protect you? Concern of flooded property Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

34. Results If a levee broke and your property flooded, how deep would it get? 50% were correct 50% underestimated or were unsure Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

35. Results Expected damage to property “hardly any, maybe just the front lawn” “six inches at best, I’d think” “carpet, floors, walls, insulation…” “gone…everything…Total loss”. ASCE 2005 Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

36. Results Access to information? 60% have not been informed 60% rarely hear about flooding 30% never hear about flooding 6% spoke with a real estate agent about flooding Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

37. Results Understanding of a “100-year flood” 2.6% yes Thought they understood, but didn’t 31% 52.4% somewhat no 14% Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

38. Results Understanding of a “100-year flood” “Levees were made to protect us for 100 years” “A major flood that comes every 100 years, it’s a worst—case scenario.” “The last flood came in1950—the next one will be in 2050” Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

39. Results Preparation 20% households have flood insurance 13% residents took “precautionary measures”: evacuation plans, valuables on 2nd story, disaster supply kit. No boats. Noaa photo library Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

40. Results Neighborhood Voices “It is my understanding that my area is not in a flood zone. That the levees have been reinforced in the 1980s. If I felt or learned that a flood was eminent, I would take the steps to protect my property.’’ “We’re pretty insulated and inland. I can’t imagine that we would sustain much flood damage.” Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

41. What does it mean? Residents are exposed to involuntary risk People of all levels of income/education are unaware Perception that “100-year” standard protects from all flooding *May 6, 2012 Bear Creek Levee “Unacceptable Status” Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

42. Why aren’t residents aware? • Policy indicates it is safe? • Trust in Governments? • (Terpstra & Gutteling 2008; Motoyoshi 2006) Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

43. Why aren’t residents aware? Political pressure to prevent declining property values engineers, politicians, emergency responderskeep risk quiet Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013

44. Why aren’t residents aware? “If New Orleans is ever flooded, the world will not know it unless there is some outside newspaper man there. The newspapers of New Orleans have not told their people the actual situation. It’s business depression that’s feared. Many leaders of the town had much rather take a chance at loss of life and destruction of property than face the possibility of the grain markets slumping a couple of notches…” Rising Tide, John Barry Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013

45. Why aren’t residents aware? “We’ve lost the Pioneer spirit” -Ron Baldwin, San Joaquin County Emergency Services Photo: Califiornia Dept. of Water Resources Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013

46. Why aren’t residents aware? Photo: Jessica Ludy Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

47. Why aren’t residents aware? Diverted and disconnected our rivers from the people Engineered ourselves out of the “floodplain” Los Angeles Walnut Creek Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

48. Memories of Floods Dresden, Germany Köln, Germany Sächsische Schweiz, Germany Galway, Ireland Vaison-la-Romaine, FR Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013

49. Memories of Floods Dordrecht, the Netherlands Köln, Germany

50. Any guesses? • Solutions? • Communication Efforts: Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012