ABBE Level 3 Diploma in Domestic Green Deal Advice Annex D: Climate Change & Cutting Emissions

1. ABBE Level 3 Diploma in Domestic Green Deal AdviceAnnex D: Climate Change & Cutting Emissions Presented by [Name] Climate Change & Cutting Emissions

2. What is Climate Change? Climate: is the average weather experienced over a long period of time • Temperature • Wind • precipitation (rainfall, hail, sleet and snow). The Earth’s climate is not fixed and in the past has changed many times in response to a variety of natural causes.

3. What is Climate Change? Climate change: Identifiable change in the climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer, and is often taken to mean man-made changes that have occurred since the onset of the industrial revolution.

4. What Causes Climate Change? Various natural factors such as: Volcanic eruptions; and Changes in the Sun’s activity and Earth’s orbit have altered the Earths’ past climate butnone of them can account for the warming that has occurred since about 1900. Rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations from human activity do, however, explain this warming through their enhancement of the natural 'greenhouse effect’.

5. The Greenhouse Effect Earth surface temperature is determined by: balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing infrared energy. Incoming sunlight (shortwave radiation) is absorbed by the Earth’s surface Heat generated is then re-emitted in the form of infra-red (longwave) radiation. This re-emission cools the surface Some of the infrared radiation is trapped by greenhouse gases, (GHGs)therefore warming the surface and lower atmosphere.

6. Climate Change

7. The Greenhouse Effect Natural process Operated for millions of years Without it… Earth’s surface would be: • on average, about 33°C colder than it is now (-18°C instead of 15°C) • unsuitable for human life.

8. The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): Water vapour (H2O) Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Ozone (O3) (Note: examples in order of importance; there are others!)

9. Climate Change The accumulation of key GHGs in the atmosphere • due to human activities • is enhancing the natural greenhouse effect. This has disturbed the balance • of incoming and outgoing energy • causing the Earth to warm up. This initial warming effect • is amplified by various ‘feedback’ processes within the climate system: • increasing water vapour in the atmosphere • effects of melting sea ice on surface reflectivity (albedo).

10. Climate Change The observed spatial patterns of warming, combined with modelling results, provide strong evidence that the recent observed warming has been mostly caused by increased GHG concentrations resulting from human activities.

11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere: • Increased by about 40% since the beginning of the industrial revolution • From around 280 to about 390 parts per million (ppm). Records from ice cores confirm the CO2 concentration is now higher than for at least the past 800,000 years and that the extra CO2 in the air today has a chemical fingerprint that links it to fossil fuels.

12. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Levels of other GHGs - increased significantly since pre-industrial times Driven by human emissions from: • Fossil fuel burning • Forest clearance and agriculture. If GHG emissions continue unabated, average global temperatures may rise (relative to 1990 temperatures) by between 1.1 and 6.4°C by the end of this century.

13. Global Warming As well as observed temperature increases, evidence of recent global warming is also shown by: continuing sea level rise increase in water vapour in the atmosphere increase in the heat stored in the oceans a major decline in Arctic sea ice volume and summer extent over recent decades. Unless action is taken to reduce GHG emissions, there is a high risk of global warming well beyond a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. This would have significant impact and could lead to severe, and possibly irreversible, damage to ecosystems and natural processes.

14. Impacts of Climate Change What are the impacts of climate change? Climate change is one of the most serious environmental threats facing the world. Its impacts are likely to be felt globally as temperatures increase, sea levels rise and patterns of drought and flooding change.

15. Rising Temperatures The average temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth’s surface has risen by about 0.75°C since around 1900. Even if all greenhouse gas emissions were to stop now, the world is already ‘committed‘ to around 0.6 (+/- 0.3)°C of further warming. If no action is taken to reduce emissions, temperatures will rise even further. Depending on the future levels of greenhouse gas emissions, increases in global average temperatures may be between 1.1 and 6.4°C from 1990 levels by the end of this century. Temperature changes will not be uniform over the globe. High latitudes, particularly the Arctic, are likely to have larger temperature increases.

16. Rising Sea Levels Globally the average sea level could rise by 18 to 59 centimetres, or more, by the end of the century. However, sea level is not rising uniformly around the world. In some regions, rates are up to several times the global mean rise, while in other regions sea level is falling. Low-lying areas and many small island states are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Millions of people living in these regions could be put at greater risk of flooding and some small islands could even become uninhabitable.

17. Extreme Weather Globally, continued warming means extreme weather events are likely to become worse. Heat waves and heavy precipitation are likely to become more frequent throughout this century. Droughts may also become more intense in some regions. The impacts of these changes are likely to be worst in developing countries. These countries are often the most vulnerable and have the lowest capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

18. Plants and Animals Changes in rainfall and temperature will likely affect many animal and plant species around the world. Some species might be unable to adapt or move quickly enough to areas with suitable climates, and habitats might not be available for them to move into. Under high levels of climate change, large areas of the Amazon rainforest could be lost due to drought or uncontrolled spread of fire. The level of impact depends largely on how patterns of rainfall will change over the region. Some projections show major drying and therefore an increased risk of rainforest loss.

19. Ocean Acidification Over time as atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase, the ocean will become more acidic. This will have potentially profound, but as yet unclear, impacts on marine life. Many marine organisms make shells and plates out of calcium carbonate. This process of ‘calcification’ is important to their biology, and survival is made more difficult as the water becomes more acidic.

20. Food and Water Supply The exact impacts on crops will vary by region and crop type, and will depend on changing patterns of precipitation and extreme events. The IPCC’s 2007 report summarised that globally, food production could increase with local average temperature rises between 1 to 3 °C above pre-industrial levels. Above this, yields of all major cereal crops in all the main areas of production were projected to decrease. This would result in an increased risk of hunger and malnutrition in the poorest regions of the world.

21. Food and Water Supply Water availability for irrigation and drinking will be less predictable because rain is likely to be more variable and higher temperatures could lead to an increased frequency of droughts. It is also possible that water from rising sea levels may contaminate underground fresh water supplies and soils in coastal areas, affecting drinking water and the ability to grow crops in these areas.

22. Health Climate change could have serious consequences for the health of millions of people, particularly those with low ability to adapt to climate change, through: Increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts Altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors

23. The Costs of Climate Change The costs of climate change could be huge, as the Stern Report on the economics of climate change made clear. The report estimated that not taking action could cost from 5 to 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP) every year. In comparison, reducing emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change could cost around 1% of global GDP each year. Costs will of course depend on the ability of nations to adapt and on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions.

24. Wider Risks Several recent scientific reports have highlighted the possibility of abrupt climate change: an accelerated change or abrupt shift in the climate system as a result of human interference with the climate system. As temperatures rise, the risks of such events become higher – including: • Possible slowdown of the North Atlantic ocean thermohaline circulation • Changes in the carbon cycle • Further, rapid loss of sea ice • Further melting of glaciers and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to long-term and irreversible sea level rise

25. Wider Risks Although there are substantial uncertainties about these changes, the risks may become significant for global temperatures 2 to 3˚C or more above pre-industrial levels.

26. Cutting Emissions A long-term framework The Climate Change Act 2008 establishes a long-term framework to tackle climate change. The Act aims to encourage the transition to a low-carbon economy in the UK through unilateral legally binding emissions reduction targets. This means a reduction of at least 34 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and at least 80 percent by 2050. Introducing these carbon budgets now will ensure we meet the targets for 2050 and beyond.

27. Reference Material Climate Change Department for Energy and Climate Change website: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/tackling/explaining/explaining.aspx Cutting Carbon Department for Energy and Climate Change website: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/emissions/carbon_budgets/carbon_budgets.aspx

28. Questions?

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