Adapting our cities: New paradigms for successful development

3. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful development Graeme I Pearman GP Consulting Pty Ltd Monash University: Geography and Environmental Science Monash Sustainability Institute Faculty of Business Economics

4. Adapting our cities: New paradigms for successful development Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Key opportunities Key threats Changing our mind-set

5. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful development Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to Key opportunities Key threats Changing our mind-set Adapting to what? • Climate change: an example of non-sustainability • Significant change is inevitable • Adaptation buys time, grasps opportunities

6. “ the most important lesson learned from the climate change issue may be that societal evolution, as devoid of direction and long-term strategy as it is, has led our behaviour and societal institutions in directions that are unsustainable not only through changing climate, but in many other ways”. Pearman and Härtel (2009)

7. Magnitude/sensitivity to change Probability of change Mitigate Socio-Economic capacity Potential Exposure Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity Strategy Willingness to adapt Risk Vulnerability Managed adaptation Resilience

8. How well do we assess risk? There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747 How many could be removed or rendered inoperable before you would decide not to fly? IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC There has been virtually no media or public attention to this risk What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems?

9. Letter from the American Association for the Advancement of Science to the US Senate, October 21, 2009 American Association for the Advancement of Science American Chemical Society American Geophysical Union American Institute of Biological Sciences American Meteorological Society American Society of Agronomy American Society of Plant Biologists American Statistical Association Association of Ecosystem Research Centers Botanical Society of America Crop Science Society of America Ecological Society of America Natural Science Collections Alliance Organization of Biological Field Stations Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Society of Systematic Biologists Soil Science Society of America University Corporation for Atmospheric Research “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, …rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver”. “…based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science”. “strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment”. “severity of climate change impacts is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades. If we are to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, emissions of greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced”. “adaptation will be necessary to address those impacts that are already unavoidable”. “Adaptation efforts include improved infrastructure design, more sustainable management of water and other natural resources, modified agricultural practices, and improved emergency responses to storms, floods, fires and heat waves”.

10. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful development Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Changed climate Changed energy futures Key opportunities Key threats Changing our mind-set Conclusions

11. Adaptation: essential part of coping Emissions peak: 2015 Temperatures peak: ~2065 Uncertainty range: ▬ 10th percentile ▬ 50th percentile ▬ 90th percentile 3 2 Global mean temperature change (oC) 1 2400 2000 2100 2200 2300 Parry et al. (2009). Overshoot, adapt and recover. Nature 458, 1102-1103.

12. Key issues for development industries 1 Increased Energy consumption/prices Use of alternative energy sources Heat effects from overheating Damage from more intense storms

13. Key issues for development industries 2 Increased Damage from flooding Damage from soil drying Bushfire risk Sustainability credentials

14. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful building Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Key opportunities Energy efficiency Urban form Energy sourcing Transportation Key threats Changing our mind-set Conclusions

15. Australian greenhouse-gas abatementcost curve for 2020 Geothermal Industry Buildings Forestry Power Reduction below 1990 levels, % X Cost of abatement A$/t CO2e Transport Agriculture Break-even point Soil CO2 Avoided deforestation Non-CO2 energy 20 30 Coal-to-gas shifts, new builds 100 Energy effic., basic materials prod. Reforestation Forest management 50 Afforestration, pasture Agriculture, livestock 0 Conservation tillage Residential heating/ventilation efficiency Refrigeration efficiency -50 On-shore wind Biofuels Afforestation, cropland Residential lighting efficiency -100 Coal-to-gas shift New build windows Stand-by savings residential Agriculture, waste Lighting efficiency commercial -150 Coal CCS retrofit Car fuel economy Water heating residential efficiency Biomass -200 Commercial air handling efficiency Solar PV Commercial heating efficiency Commercial air conditioning efficiency Abatement below business as usual (Mt CO2e) Motor systems 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Source: Based on McKinsey Australia Climate Change Initiative

16. Cost of abatement Reduction of Australian emissions is: “achievable- 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 60 percent by 2030 without major technological breakthroughs or lifestyle changes” “affordable with an average annual gross cost of approximately A$290 per household to reduce emissions in 2020 to 30 percent below 1990 levels” McKinsey (2008)

17. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful building Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Key opportunities Key threats Conservatism Vested interests Ourselves Changing our mind-set Conclusions

18. Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/

19. Information, behaviour and rationality Common assumptions People are essentially rational Rationality is conscious (we choose) Denial is a kind of irrationality Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information Alternative assumptions What is rational in one context may be irrational in another Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious Every rationality is guided by emotion De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC Fien et al. (2008): personal communication

20. Human behavioural response determinates • Societal structures • Politics and governance • Social institutions • Imbedded social norms Responses Framed in societal norms and behavioural characteristics • Underpinning drivers of behaviour of individuals • Genetic • Learned • Deeply embedded characteristics

21. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful building Adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Key opportunities Key threats Changing our mind-set and building resilience Holism Strategic-ness Attention to societal evolution & its directions Conclusions

22. Future motor vehicle fuel security Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Increased global demand-Falling availability Limited supplies-peak oil Threat of conflict Energy efficiency targets Oil Imports CO2 Fuel security Balance of payments Renewable energy targets Emissions Rapidly diminishing national production Pollutants Human health Rising costs Motor vehicle fuels Biofuels Food, water Rising demand Affluence Population Employment Social coherence

23. Building resilience Holism CC coexists with poverty alleviation, energy & national security, etc. Mitigation & adaptation impact on employment, competition, economics, other environmental problems, etc. Disciplinary, sectoral, national, personally isolated strategies often fail to deliver to those jurisdictions or to whole community needs Uncertainty Uncertainty exists & will always exists concerning the future. Rather than attract delay it should demand actions & with urgency. It is a matter of the risk. Strategic-ness Where we wish to be over time, economically, socially & environmentally. Not set in stone but guidance towards broad, widely shared aspirations Incorporate issues of future food, water, health, environmental security, disaster mitigation, security issues, etc. Builds options & thus resilience into the future, in face of uncertainty

24. Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful building The role of adaptation as a response to climate change Adapting to what? Key opportunities Key threats Changing our mind-set Conclusions

25. Development sector risk/opportunities Change in environmental exposure Extremes of wind, temperature, aridity and rainfall, inundation and flooding Changes available natural resources Water, disposal Changing impacts globally Competitors, suppliers, markets Revolutionary changes to energy Sources, utilisation and costs Materials, energy standards, new technologies

27. Dr. Keith Suter