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MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report

MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report. Andy Turner http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner. Outline. What is MoSeS What are we looking to do How far have we got What next. What is MoSeS. Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science NCeSS Node Mark Birkin (Geography)

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MoSeS Introduction and Progress Report

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  1. MoSeSIntroduction and Progress Report Andy Turner http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner

  2. Outline • What is MoSeS • What are we looking to do • How far have we got • What next All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  3. What is MoSeS Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science NCeSS Node • Mark Birkin (Geography) • Haibo Chen (Transport) • Martin Clarke (Geography) • Justin Keen (Health) • Jie Xu (Computing) • Phil Rees (Geography) • Paul Townend (Computing) • Andy Turner (Geography) • Belinda Wu (Geography) All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  4. Vision • Develop means of generating, storing and disseminating urban and regional simulations based on national level models • Use simulations tools to support research and policy applications • What if? • Develop demonstrator applications for • Health • Service Planning • Business • Pensions • Property prices • Transport All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  5. Model and simulate the evolution of the UK human population • Contemporary planning focus • Concentrate on the period 2001-2031 • Operating at individual and household level • Aggregating to community and larger regions • Open source • Grid Technology • Window into modelling everything • Complexity added over time • Develop a dynamic geographic agent based micro-simulation of the UK • SimCity™ for real All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  6. Develop an Agent Based Model • Agents to represent • Individual people • Family, household and social networks • Reasonably complex and evolutionary characteristics and behaviour • Households • Communities • Business • Education • Schools • Colleges All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  7. Key Challenges • Designing and developing standards compliant tools in an open way • Developing generic and modular solutions • Complex systems modelling • Visualisation • Collaboration • Developing applications and use cases • Data security and disclosure risk • Develop a portal for users and developers All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  8. Demographic Modelling • There are approximately • 60 million people in the UK • 20 million households and communal establishments • 200,000 UK Population 2001 Census Output Areas • Data • Census micro-data • UK 3% Individual SAR • 1% Household SAR for England and Wales • Census Area Statistics All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  9. Initialisation (2001) • Sets of SARs used to populate Households and Communal Establishments • Genetic Algorithm • Constraints and optimisations • Large number of potential solutions • Each Census Area or aggregation can be concurrently processed • Dynamic Simulation (2001-2031) • Annual basis • Birth, Death and Migration All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

  10. Progress • Population initialisation • Datasets for demographic simulation produced for Leeds and UK • MSOA vs OA • HSAR vs ISAR for household population • Sampling without replacement • Dynamic simulation model • Birth and death modules written • Difficulties with migration module • Portal development set up All Hands 2006 NCeSS Booth Presentation

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