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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21

MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21. Alan S. Manne, Stanford University Richard G. Richels, EPRI. Stanford University December 2003. Features of MERGE . Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model Perfect foresight 9 regions Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150

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MERGE – Presentation to EMF 21

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  1. MERGE – Presentation toEMF 21 Alan S. Manne, Stanford University Richard G. Richels, EPRI Stanford University December 2003

  2. Features of MERGE Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model Perfect foresight 9 regions Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150 Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric and nonelectric energy demands Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than gwp Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE

  3. Features Added Specifically for EMF 21 Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf) Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020 Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between 2000 and 2020 Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA Extrapolated technical progress Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as annual growth and decline limits Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly global rather than regional results

  4. Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress Multipliers for all Gases but CO2 $/tce 2010 2050 2100

  5. World Carbon Sinks: Cumulative Difference @ $100/ton

  6. Regional Population Projections

  7. Per Capita GDP

  8. GDP Projections

  9. Carbon Emissions – Reference Case

  10. Global Radiative Forcing Percentages2000-2100 - reference case slf 2% llf ~0% n2o 15% ch4 8% co2 75%

  11. Control Cases • In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C between 2000 and 2100. • Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature increase of about 2.5 degrees C. • Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020 onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission rights during the early decades. • Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all greenhouse gases plus afforestation.

  12. Temperature Increase from 2000

  13. Present value of control costs

  14. Efficiency price of carbon - 4.5 watts / square meter

  15. Efficiency price of carbon – 0.2 degrees C per decade

  16. Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s ( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )

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