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Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis: Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe

Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis: Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe. Forward Look 'Beyond transition' Berlin, 16 February 2011 Vello Pettai, Martin Brusis. Overview. why scenarios? drivers scope conditions scenarios across fields. Why scenarios?.

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Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis: Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe

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  1. Post-communist Capitalisms in Crisis:Scenarios for Central & Eastern Europe Forward Look 'Beyond transition' Berlin, 16 February 2011 Vello Pettai, Martin Brusis

  2. Overview why scenarios? drivers scope conditions scenarios across fields

  3. Why scenarios? working out future research areas in social science requires thinking about how society itselfwill evolve we can’t predict the future, but we can use foresight methods to construct varieties of that future scenarios help to shake up our mind, imagine a different world, analyze eventualities Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  4. Why scenarios? they are not about predicting, but rather contemplating they are a means to an end and a heuristic device in order to generate ideas about future research agendas the task is to improve the scenarios, but also to take them as they are in order to stimulate thinking Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  5. Drivers drivers = what are the broad, overarching processes or phenomena that will determine or affect other, narrower phenomena? we are focusing on CEE – a single geographic region embedded in a concrete political-economic community (the EU) so there are limits to what CEE itself will affect it is easier to identify drivers Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  6. The drivers & their permutations ?? ?? Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  7. Other drivers • ‘European neighborhood’: RU, UKR, BLR; stability – instability • energy: supply & demand, political dimensions, global struggles • EU enlargement: Turkey, integration or confrontation • these could also affect CEE, but they are not included in this exercise Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  8. Scope conditions • irrespective of the ‘drivers’ we choose for building scenarios, there are specific aspects of CEE that constitute ‘scope conditions’ or background parameters for possible future developments Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  9. homogeneous consolidated political institutions weak civil society & low levels of trust ‘dependent developmnt’ heterogeneous varying voter-party dealignment diverse ethnic situations varieties of capitalism Scope conditions Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  10. Drivers and effects: economy Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  11. Drivers and effects: politics Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  12. Drivers and effects: local gov. Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  13. Drivers and effects: society Forward Look Consensus Conference, Berlin 16-17 February 2011

  14. COMMENTS? QUESTIONS?

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