80 likes | 279 Views
Reasoning About Causes. What are causes for?. We use causal information to reason about the world How do objects work? Why do people do what they do? Without causes, we can only reason with co-occurrences Eclipses seem mysterious without causal knowledge
E N D
What are causes for? • We use causal information to reason about the world • How do objects work? • Why do people do what they do? • Without causes, we can only reason with co-occurrences • Eclipses seem mysterious without causal knowledge • With causes, we can reason about goals of action • With causes, we can reason about why things happen.
Causal Status Effect • Causes matter more than effects • Categorizing an object • A -> B -> C • An object that has feature A is considered to be a better member of the category than an object that has B. • B is better than C. • True for causes, but not temporal precedence
Causal Centrality • Properties are connected to each other • Connections create a web of beliefs • Deeply connected beliefs are more central than sparsely connected beliefs • Deeply connected beliefs are causally central
Mutability • Causally central feature are less mutable • These features cannot be changed • Birds • Imagine a bird that has no beak • Imagine a bird that cannot fly • Imagine a bird that was not alive
Mutability and causal reasoning • Causal relations affect counterfactual reasoning • If I had studied more for that exam, then… • I would have gotten a better grade • I would have slept more soundly? • I would not have stubbed my toe?? • Return to Kahneman and Miller • Why is the person who missed their flight by 5-minutes more upset than the person who missed their flight by 30 minutes?
Kim & Ahn • Clinicians are supposed to make diagnoses based on the presence/absence of symptoms • All symptoms are supposed to be treated equally • Causal centrality affects importance of symptoms • More central features play a greater role in diagnoses than less central features • Features believed to be causes are more important than features believed to be effects. • Is this a problem?