Global Warming for Dummies

1. Global Warming for Dummies Robert D. Cormia Summer 2006

2. Presentation Goals • Explain the greenhouse effect • Show current / future CO2 trends • Affect of rising temperatures on earth • 10 key energy challenges to solve • Economic opportunity of ‘energy equity’ • Recommendations / conclusions • ‘sense of urgency, and a call to action’

3. Solar Energy and earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

4. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm

5. 250 yrs of carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillionin less than 30 years – why should you care?

6. Rising CO2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html

7. Carbon Burned and CO2 • Plot atmospheric CO2 as a function of cumulative carbon burned (mega tons) • Linear regression has an almost perfectcorrelation coefficient (r2*100) of 99% • Allows a confident prediction of future CO2 based on future carbon burned. • Since forcing can be calculated directly from CO2, it is a very important model Devin Cormia ‘The Gaia Hypothesis’ Carlmont High School AP Bio Term Project 2005

8. Carbon Emissions and CO2 Carbon emissions can be used to predict atmospheric CO2 with 99% confidence using simple linear regression data

9. Carbon Emissions and CO2 • Carbon burned => CO2 • Linear from 1850 to 2000 - ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4*M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%) • ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2 • 30% missing carbon • Trend is constant over 100 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 500 years?

10. Projected Energy Demand

11. Future CO2 – the Next 30 Yrs

12. Global Climate Models (GCM) • Ab Initio modeling • From first principles • Modeling land and sea temps from 1900 - 2000 • Complexity and data • Climate is a dynamic system – ‘complex’ math • GISS study • 10 year study over oceans • Sea temps ~7,500 ft depth • Satellite data for forcing

13. http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm

14. Forcing Model from GISS • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/ • Definitive work in March 2005 • 1,800 ocean buoys sampling temperatures at depth of 0 to 2,500 meters from 1900 - 2000 • Temps must rise 0.66 0C per 1 W of forcing • ‘Thermal inertia’ of oceans requires 25 to 50 years to experience 60% of total ‘equilibration’ • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

15. Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

16. Forcing / Heat From CO2

17. Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100 0F -Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in 25 years

18. NASA Climate Model http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/

19. Temperature Predictions • Rising 0.60 C (~10 F) no matter what! • Committed heat that is ‘in the pipeline’ • Rising from 580 to 600 F by 2050 • Based on 2/3 degree C per 1 W of ‘forcing’ • 25 to 50 years to ‘equilibrate’ with forcing • Between 600 – 620 F by 2100 • Depending on when 500 ppm CO2 reached Calculations are based on cumulative carbon burned and GISS 2005 forcing model

20. Published in : IPCC Third Assessment Report - Synthesis Report Figure number : 9.3

21. Consequences of Warming • Thinning of polar ice caps • Slowing of the thermohaline cycle • Rising sea level, perhaps quickly • Extended regions of drought • Extreme weather events • Extremes of temperature / duration • Extremes of storms and hurricanes

22. The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade, and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/

23. Arctic Ice Loss • Accelerating ice loss over the last 30 years • One meter already lost, in ~20 years (1975-1995) • Rate now at 0.1 meters / yr or ~1 meter / decade • North pole could be gone in summer by ~ 2030/50 • Affects the thermohaline cycle, is already slowing http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/

24. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html

25. Thermohaline Cycle http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/om.html NASA schematic view of ocean circulation.  The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of:  1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which results from strong cooling.  3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.

26. Antarctica Cracking

27. Calving Ice Shelf Process Antarctic holds >80% of earth’s fresh water Like the Arctic, it moderates the climate • Calving at the edge of the ice shelf • Shelves hold the main ice flows back • As they break, ice flows into the sea • Melt water fills the ice crevice • Water sinks, crevices expand - • Fissuring the shelf into pieces

29. Greenland Ice Change http://www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.html

30. Sea Level Expansion • Sea expands from water molecule changing 0.0002 in volume for each 0C • Over 5,000 to 7,500 meters, it adds up • Thermal expansion is 1 – 2 cm / 10 yrs. • But is accelerating to 2.5 cm / decade • For every 1 0C, sea expands ~1 meter in height - sea cannot expand ‘down or out’ http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsProbability.html

31. Long Term Warming Effects

32. Ice Cores – the Story of Vostok

33. The Thermostat of Life • Vostok ice core data show regular and repeating cycles of temps and CO2 over last ~500,000 years • Oscillate between 180 and 280 ppm CO2 and 100 C • Hypothesis that earth regulates the temperature of the planet through CO2 / greenhouse effect • Biosphere maintains a precise level of CO2 for life • But the biosphere isn’t really absorbing our CO2 • Y intercept of cum. carbon burn / CO2 is 297 ppm • http://courses.washington.edu/pcc589/papers/Shackleton2000.pdf

34. Vostok CO2 and Temperature • The relationship between CO2 and temperature is nearly perfect (r2*100 = 99) • However, the casual relationship is the basis for significant (expert) controversy • Why does this occur?

35. The Vostok Equilibrium • Vostok ‘equilibrium’ • 100K year cycles • earth’s orbital eccentricity • Sun heats up the planet • Biosphere expands • CO2 maintains temp • Otherwise earth would be very cold ~ 0 degrees F • CO2has not exceeded 280 ppm in the last 500K years and 4 major cycles

36. A Warmer – and Hotter Earth CO2 benefits plants only if temperatures rise significantly

37. Storms on the Move Katrina moving across Florida in late August 2005 finds warm water in the Gulf of Mexico And grows from a category 1 to a category 5 hurricane in less than 2 days!

38. Why isn’t the US Concerned? • Global warming is just a ‘theory’ • And ‘we still need to do more research’ • We can’t slow down the economy • We would lose jobs or growth or both • We’ll find more oil – maybe in Alaska • Technology will solve the problem • It won’t happen in our lifetime!

39. An Editor in the Whitehouse http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Philip_A._Cooney

40. Peak Oil • Peak oil production around 2004 - 2010 • After that, is more expensive to find / refine • Economies built on oil / gas will struggle • Need energy (equity) solutions in place: • Solar • Nuclear • Hydroelectric, and wind • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

41. Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

42. World Oil Production History

43. Projected Energy Demand

44. Oil Discovery (3 year average - past and projected) 1930-2050 http://www.btinternet.com/~nlpwessex/Documents/energycrisis.htm

45. Oil Production – Reserves Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005

46. Quiet Denial / Acknowledgement The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation.  For instance, the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson, recently stated: “By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.”http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

47. An Energy Dependent Economy • “Without timely mitigation, world supply / demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), accompanied by huge oil price increases, both of which would create a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.” • “Waiting until world conventional oil production peaks before initiating crash program mitigation leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for two decades or longer.” http://www.peakoil.net/USDOE.html

48. Energy Equity • Burning oil is burning money! • Build an energy infrastructure with equity • Solar energy is primary, not alternative • Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 in local installers • Built in America, by Americans, for America – what could be morepatriotic?

49. Fuel cells Hydrogen Solar energy Batteries Motors New power grid Low power lighting Insulation materials Safe nuclear power CO2 sequestration 10 Key Energy Challenges Establishing Technical Leadership in a New Energy Economy An Apollo style program on a Manhattan Project Timeline

50. Building a Solar Economy • Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy • 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025 • Solar brings true energy independence from carbon • It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s • Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005