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First….the Stock Market Bubble…

First….the Stock Market Bubble…. THEN…THE HOUSING BUBBLE…. THEN…THE CREDIT CARD BUBBLE…. NOW…THE IND IFR BUBBLE!. THE IND IFR BUBBLE. Review of the events during the pre dawn hours of Sept. 9, 2009 Personal, untested, unproven opinions as

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First….the Stock Market Bubble…

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  1. First….the Stock Market Bubble…

  2. THEN…THE HOUSING BUBBLE…

  3. THEN…THE CREDIT CARD BUBBLE…

  4. NOW…THE IND IFR BUBBLE!

  5. THE IND IFR BUBBLE Review of the events during the pre dawn hours of Sept. 9, 2009 Personal, untested, unproven opinions as to why things evolved the way they did

  6. THE IND IFR BUBBLE Surface ridge across Great Lakes Weak pressure gradient Light northeast flow

  7. THE IND IFR BUBBLE Clear skies

  8. THE IND IFR BUBBLE MOS predicts LIFR cigs 090900Z-091200Z at IND

  9. THE IND IFR BUBBLE 090600Z IND TAF agrees

  10. THE IND IFR BUBBLE In reality, LIFR didn’t develop until nearly 091200Z (~3 ½ hours of false alarm LIFR)

  11. So What Happened?

  12. 082000Z Surface Plot Crossover Temps generally low 60s

  13. 090300Z Surface Plot Fog beginning to form in more rural areas where crossover temps nearly reached IND still about 5 degs above crossover temp

  14. 090800Z Depiction Plot By 090800Z, when LIFR cigs expected at IND, everybody but IND in the soup

  15. 091000Z Surface Plot IND finally reaches crossover temp by 091000Z

  16. 091200Z Depiction Plot Low cigs/vsbys finally develop over IND

  17. My Thoughts on the Event

  18. Delayed Onset of IFR at IND Urban Heat Island *Higher temps over downtown advected over the airport on light northeast flow *Resulting in higher temp/dewpt spreads *Longer to reach crossover temp locally *Temp gradient between downtown and rural areas may have kept winds high enough to prevent IFR

  19. Why IND Fogged in When it Did Increased Mixing After Sunrise *Sunrise on 9/9/09 ~1020Z *IFR at IND developed ~ 1 to 1 ½ hours later *Increased mixing after sunrise either helped to destroy urban heat island, or allowed fog lurking in the rural areas to advect into the airport area

  20. Bottom Line *Be skeptical of MOS developing radiational fog at IND with an easterly component to the surface winds *When IND IFR bubble is in effect, be extra vigilant in the 0 – 2 hour period after sunrise for sudden onset of fog from the rural areas

  21. Q & A

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