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P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN

New Coupled Climate-Carbon Simulations with the IPSL Model From validation with atmospheric CO 2 and satellite data to feedback analysis. P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN. 13/10/2005. Carbon Models Offline Responses.

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P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN

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  1. New Coupled Climate-Carbon Simulations with the IPSL ModelFrom validation with atmospheric CO2 and satellite data to feedback analysis P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN 13/10/2005

  2. Carbon Models Offline Responses Either weaker sinks or sources according to future projections with identical IPCC CO2 and Climate scenarii [IPCC TAR, 2001]

  3. Atm. [CO2] Carbon Models Online Responses All models have a positive feedback but … Large panel of possible responses due to a wide range of climate and carbon models sensitivities Δ[CO2]max= 224 ppm Δ[CO2]min = 19 ppm [C4MIP- Friedlingstein et al., 2005]

  4. Climate Change and Carbon Cycle Interactions Wide range of climate and carbon models sensitivity ocean sensitivity to [CO2] ocean sensitivity to T° climate sensitivity land sensitivity to [CO2] land sensitivity to T° [C4MIP-Friedlingstein et al., 2005]

  5. “ En résumé ” • The need for Carbon-Climate Coupling • Modeling the carbon cycle • Coupling it with the climate • But now essentially • Better understand processes individually • Confront results to observations Pushing towards convergence of processes and their responses

  6. AtmosphereLMDZ.3.3 OceanORCA-LIMOPA 8.2 IPCC Climate Coupled Model Climate Atmospheric [CO2] coupler CO2 concentrationprovided by IPCC (ext. forcing) ∆t = physic time step Terrestrial biosphereORCHIDEE(SECHIBA only) Carbon CO2 forcing, as well as CH4, N2O and CFC forcing [CO2] = external forcing Marti, 2005

  7. A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model • Integration of Carbon Models (PISCES et Stomate) • Wind exchange from ATM to PISCES • Modification in LMDZ4 to send the wind • Addition of a field in the coupler • Modification in OPA to receive the wind • Filling closed seas • Monthly fluxes computation and storage in a file • CO2 update each month • Creation and generation of new • Restart files • Input files (*def, namelists, namcouple, emissions) • Output files • Adaptation of Job launching • Post Treatments • Configuration set-up POF and OOF off-line models • Rebuild the world when CCRT has lost it !!! • LOOP config on CVS

  8. Climate Atmospheric [CO2] AtmosphereLMDZ4 OceanORCA-LIMOPA 8.2 Coupler OASIS 2.4 ∆t = physic time step ∆t = 1day CO2 concentrationre-calculated each month MarineBiochemistry PISCES Terrestrial biosphereORCHIDEE(STOMATE activated) Carbon Land flux GtC/mth Ocean flux GtC/mth EMI = external forcing [Marland et al, 2005 Houghton, 2002] Net total carbon flux Fluxland + Fluxocean A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model

  9. Fossil emi. Climate Land and Ocean LOOP01 LOOP03 LOOP02 LOOP03 Highlights CO2 change impact on fluxes Highlights climate change impact on fluxes A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model • LOOP01 control, no emissions • LOOP02 : fully coupled, emissions • Climate aware of CO2 increase • LOOP03 : decoupled, emissions • Climate agnostic to CO2 increasefix atmospheric CO2 concentration[CO2] = 286.2 ppm LOOP02 CO2 Climate feedback Geochemical impact LOOP03 Climate impact

  10. Simulated CO2 Concentration [CO2] is re-calculated each month based on : • fossil fuel and land-use emissions • net CO2 fluxes computed by ORCHIDEE (land) and PISCES (ocean) positive feedback : 25 ppm in 2084 LOOP2 vs LOOP3 Weaker land and oceanic uptakes in coupled run (LOOP2)

  11. ocean sensitivity to T° ocean sensitivity to [CO2] climate sensitivity land sensitivity to [CO2] land sensitivity to T° Climate and Carbon Models Sensitivity LOOP vs C4MIP models LOOP is inside C4MIP responses range. But is it a sufficient criterion ? [C4MIP- Friedlingstein et al., 2005]

  12. Satellite Data Comparison

  13. Carbon Dioxide Concentration Simulation matches historical data… [CDIAC, 2005] Is it enough to be confident in the model projections ?

  14. Outline • Confront results to observations • Budgets • Seasonal Cycle • IAV • Long term trends

  15. fossil fuel Atmospheric carbon variation land Land use ocean Global Budgets : 80s and 90s - 2,8 GtC/yr - 2,6 GtC/yr - 2,2 GtC/yr - 1.8 GtC/yr Good agreement between LOOP and IPCC

  16. Regional Budgets : 1988-2003 Need to confront models results to inversions data Over-estimation in thetropical region for the continental biosphere

  17. Regional Breakdown : 1988-2003 N. Atl and N. Pacshould be different 22 emission regions and 78 CO2 measurements locations [Baker et al., 2005]

  18. Seasonal Cycle at Mauna Loa A realistic seasonal cycleat a CO2 measurement location Obs. Model

  19. Inter-Annual Variability of CO2 Fluxes [Baker et al., 2005] Over estimation of IAV in Land Under estimation of IAV in Ocean Global and ocean inter-annual variability [PgC yr-1] from xIAV

  20. Long Term Trends : The Ocean LOOP GLODAP Atlantic Pacific 96.5 PgC (1860-1995) 118 ± 19 PgC (1800-1994) CO2 Anthropogenic micromol/kg [GLODAP, Sabine et al., 2004]

  21. Continental biosphere and oceans sinks are influenced by CO2 increase and by climate change. • Obvious need to model Carbon Cycle- Climate interactions. • Wide range of possible response drives the need for a better understanding of involved processes. • Observations and inversions both at global and breakdown region scale constitute the best common reference

  22. Short and Medium Term Perspectives • LOOP to be integrated in the next IPCC report • Planned article in Tellus (due date end of Nov.) following ICDC7 • Technical note on MODIPSL et LOOP to be written • Transport : • LMDZ4 : LMDZ4_V2 tag + transport enabling modifications • OASIS 3 : asynchronous coupling frequency • INCA : currently only used for the CO2 transport + … • Fires : foreseen integration of the regfire model (K. Thonicke) • Dynamic ecosystems study • OCEAN (Laurent) • LAND (Nathalie) • …

  23. Thank You ! With the contribution ofRachid BENSHILA, Patrick BROCKMANN, Philippe BOUSQUET, Arnaud CAUBEL, Sébastien DENVIL, Jean-Louis DUFRESNE, Laurent FAIRHEAD, Marie-Angèle FILIBERTI, Philippe PEYLIN, Peter RAYNER,

  24. Backup

  25. TerrestrialBiosphereModel : ORCHIDEE [Krinner, 2005]

  26. PO43- Diatoms NH4+ Si Nano-phyto NO3- Iron MicroZoo D.O.M Meso Zoo P.O.M Small Ones Big Ones Oceanic Biogeochemical Model PISCES Marine biology is highly influenced by the ocean dynamic motivating the need of both PISCES and OPA [Aumont, 2001; Aumont 2003]

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