Abstract:

1. Senior Project – Computer Science - 2006Vaporware and Lock-in: What’s the Connection?Erica GierkeAdvisor – Prof. Chris Fernandes (CS) Prof. Stephen Schmidt (ECO) Abstract: Living in the ‘technology era’ we have come to expect rapid technical innovation. While new technology is quickly invented, it is not as quick to be turned into new products for consumers to buy. Recent research has indicated that a locked in market (a market that has conformed to a standard inhibiting further progressions) inhibits progress. This project looks at how vaporware (deliberate false preannouncements of upcoming products) announcements affect a locked in market. By simulating a locked in market where producers are allowed to make vaporware announcement we can see how technological progress is affected. In this experimental structure we were able to see that vaporware announcements inhibit progression. By observing the effect of vaporware announcements we can better understand the potentially problematic role that they play. Hypothesis: Vaporware prolongs lock-in The Experiment: The Experimental Program: Producers Consumers A2 B2 A1 The experiment is a simulated market where different technology products were being produced and transacted. Each product has a type, indicated by a letter, and a level indicated by a number. The letter represents a system and the number represents a technology level. Technology can progress in one of two ways; upgrading and keep the same letter or upgrade to a new letter. An upgrade to the same letter means maintaining back compatibility. Upgrading to a new letter is equivalent to creating a new system. The difference is that it is much more expensive to upgrade and maintain back compatibility. Database Backend The program is a web interface with a database back-end. In each round the producers being by submitting their production information and any vaporware announcements. Then one by one the consumers are allowed to buy. Each consumer sees a page generated by the database showing what products are available along with the cheapest and second cheapest price. Results: Session 3 Session 4 In session 3 there was only one vaporware announcement. In session 4 there was an announcement every round except round 4. The producers in session 3 progressed to a higher technology level, and stayed close to the ideal progression line. In session 4 the producers did not progress as far, and they overspent by upgrading and maintaining back compatibility. A B C D E F G H I A B C D E F G H I Technology Type Technology Type Conclusion: Vaporware prolongs lock-in