National Accounts and Related Outputs Work Plan: 2013 – 2017 Andrew Walton

1. National Accounts and Related Outputs Work Plan: 2013 – 2017 Andrew Walton

2. NA Work Plan • Scope • Progress so far • Why are we doing it? • Some highlights • Next steps

3. NA Work Plan: Scope • National Accounts and components • Public Sector Finances • Balance of Payments and Trade • Short term Indicators • Regional Accounts

4. Progress so far • Already consulted on a five-year National Accounts and related outputs plan • As a result we have published an agreed plan as a basis for future discussions with users • This is based on ‘expected’ resources • Not set in stone • Responsive to developments • But recognise that this will have an impact

5. Why are we doing it? • User interest is very high • Lots of issues and improvements • More effective way of prioritising • Business as usual and ESA10/BPM6 takes most of the resource • Manage expectations

6. Detail of the plan - summary • For 2014 major ESA10/BPM6 demand • Legally required so little choice • Beyond 2015 more scope • But still a lot of ESA10/BPM6 development until 2017 or 2018 • Identified the other big developments • Flow of funds • Quarterly constant price supply and use • Source improvement not quick • Plan sets out some deliverables along the path

7. Business as Usual • Improving our Business as usual • Ensuring the range of publications meet user needs • Presenting the statistics to both expert and lay users • Making underlying data easily accessible for all users • Ensuring the production of the statistics is as streamlined as possible to maximise time available for excellent presentation • Implement a wider user engagement strategy • Communicate with users via a programme of articles and seminars that address emerging issues. • Expand the revisions database and analyses to include the main aggregates.

8. Developments • National Accounts development & Continuous Improvement • Meeting Regulatory requirements • ESA10/BPM6 • Comply with regulations • Address GNI reservations and A points • Quality initiatives • Outcome of National Statistics Quality Review not yet in the plan • Continuous improvement

9. National Statistics Quality Review • Scope as in this work plan • User focussed • Externally led with ‘expert’ NA support • Team identified over the summer • Review started in September • Finishing Spring 2014 • Recommendations prioritised in next year’s work plan

10. GDP and short term indicators • Various reviews • Construction • Industry reviews • COICOP • Living costs and food survey • Compilation methods • Supply and Use developments • Annual constant price • Interim solution for detailed purchases • Input-output analytical tables

11. GDP and short term indicators • Nominal GDP • Improving processes • Historic data • Output data • More detailed HHFCE and GFCF • ESA10 dataset alongside Blue Book 2014 • Key issue – quarterly KP SUT

12. Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables • Vision would be ‘world class’ • Most countries with QSUT use large amounts of modelled data • In UK, would highlight some data deficiencies (income, Intermediate consumption, some household expenditure) • Source improvements not yet planned • Given changes to survey programme required by ESA10/BPM6, unlikely before 2019

13. Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables • But we can do something • Annual KP SUT gives experience of simultaneous balancing • Develop quarterly ‘commodity flow’ for major products (e.g cars, oil, energy, construction, aircraft) • Publish by 2015 • Develop plan by 2016 for source improvement

14. Sector and Financial Accounts • Big ESA10 challenge • More sectors and accounts • Transaction reviews • Other international • G20 data gaps, SDDS+, MIPS • Historic data • Working to restore pre-1987 data • Key issue – Flow of funds

15. Flow of Funds • In this context means ‘from whom to whom’ • Additional data collection planned for 2018 as part of ESA10/BPM6 programme • Before then? • Bank ‘requirements’ • Update Finstats methodological guide • Articulate explicitly the coverage of the OFI sector • ‘Use more data’ • Resource arrived to start the work in September, so in the planning stage now

16. Balance of Payment and Trade • Major BPM6 changes • No derogations so more uncertainty over delivery • Pressures on understanding new concepts • Global Value Chains • Digital economy • No plans to do anything significant other than BPM6

17. Public Sector Finances • Aligning PSF and NA • 6 pack agreement • Review of the “ex measures” • ESA10 challenge • Review of Network Rail • State government • Social security funds • Classifications • Deal with more cases

18. Regional accounts • Methodological enhancements • GVA(P) 'real' measure for ESA10 • Balanced estimate of regional GVA • NUTS boundary changes 2015 • Regional HHFCE (future aspiration - post 2015) • Key issue – Scottish referendum 

19. Concluding comments • Set out in detail: • Plans for Blue Book 14 • Beyond 2014 what’s planned • For Flow of funds • For Quarterly SUT • For next year need to include response to NSQR

20. Any Questions?