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Invocation

Invocation. Dr. Laura Perry Johnson Southwest District Director UGA Extension . Networking Breakfast. Welcome & Local Comments. Dr . Joe West Assistant Dean UGA CAES Tifton Campus. Summary of the 2014 Georgia Agricultural & Agribusiness Outlook. Dr. Nathan Smith & Dr. Curt Lacy

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Invocation

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  1. Invocation Dr. Laura Perry Johnson Southwest District Director UGA Extension

  2. NetworkingBreakfast

  3. Welcome & Local Comments Dr. Joe West Assistant Dean UGA CAES Tifton Campus

  4. Summary of the 2014 Georgia Agricultural & Agribusiness Outlook Dr. Nathan Smith & Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economists, Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics The University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences

  5. Animal Products and Timber Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

  6. Key Factors Impacting Livestock Markets and Profitability • Economy (consumer demand) • Crop prices • Feeder cattle demand • Sector profitability • Big picture items

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  9. Beef Cattle Situation & Outlook

  10. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  11. BEEF COWS THAT CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: 29295 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  12. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: -862 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  13. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2003 TO JANUARY 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: -3236 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  14. Meat supplies were virtually unchanged for two years in a row Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2014 Report

  15. Past and Projected Prices Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

  16. Projected Beef Cattle Profits in 2014 • Cow-calf • Stockers • Finishing Graphics source: CattleFax: Long-term Outlook. www.cattlefax.com

  17. Beef Cattle Summary • For 2013 expect lower production • Higher prices • Higher profits • More heifer retention

  18. Dairy situation and outlook

  19. What will drive prices in 2014? • Declining cow numbers • Strong demand for dairy exports • Favorable feed prices • Production abroad rebounds

  20. Georgia Milk Production Since 2000 During this time, milk production per cow increased from 16,500 to 19,200.

  21. Georgia Milk Mailbox Prices 2001-2014 (est.) 2014: $21.50 - $23.50

  22. Other Considerations • 2014 Farm Bill • Margin insurance • Tied to production controls?? • Still being debated in Congress

  23. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Iowa State University

  24. Big Story in Pork Production • PEDV = Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus. • Highly contagious type of Coronavirus • Confirmed in 22 states. • Deadly to small pigs and piglets. • Could reduce domestic pork production by 2-3 percent in 2013-2014.

  25. Pork Summary • Expect slightly more production • Stable prices • Improved profits

  26. Lower Feed Cost and 2013’s Reduced Broiler Production Leads to Expansion Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  28. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  29. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  30. Big Picture Items • Antibiotics • GMOs • Humane treatment of animals

  31. Honey Reports 2013 Piedmont and North Georgia experienced 20-25% below normal honey yields due to: - record amounts of rainfall - below average temperatures Southern Georgia experienced the complete opposite with average to above average honey yields. Due to a decrease in overall honey production, honey prices rose 11% from 2011-2012 and 10% from 2012-2013 with the trend expected to continue in 2014.

  32. Timber and Forest Products Outlook • Improving economy should help • 91 bio-energy facilities planned for SEUS • 2 pellet mills in GA • Improving exports • Hardwood to Europe • All wood and products to China

  33. Livestock, Poultry, and Timber Summary • Improving economy should support demand for all livestock and poultry products. • Lower grain prices and tight supplies will bolster demand for feeder cattle. • Lower grain prices and increasing exports should support livestock and poultry prices. • Higher prices and lower costs = higher profits in 2014.

  34. Georgia Row CropsSituation and Outlook for 2014 Nathan Smith, Don Shurley, and Amanda Smith Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Georgia

  35. Row Crop Situation Heading into 2014 • Challenging production season with wetter than normal conditions and cooler temperatures into middle of the summer and then dry late season. • Supply outpacing demand in most crops. • Downtrending prices, especially since harvest.

  36. 2013 – Mixed Year For Yields * New Record set in 2013

  37. Corn Market Factors • Record 2013 production. • Leveling off of corn-starch ethanol industry. • Growing domestic use. • Increase in world production and use (South America shifting back to soybeans).

  38. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Record high crop in 2013/14 Reversal of trend to, now increased stocks

  39. Change in Pattern for Corn Use? Ethanol use flattening out Feed use to rebound Million bushels

  40. Corn Price Outlook • South America shifting back to soybeans. • Exports, livestock feeding and size of U.S. and foreign corn crops will influence corn prices in the future. • Reduced U.S. acres 2 million or more. • Prices likely to range between $4.75 and $4. • Another 14 Mil. Bushel crop would push prices below $4.

  41. Soybean Market Factors Tight US supply situation. Global demand for soybeans and products growing. Bullish exports sales and shipments. Increase in South American production.

  42. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2013 Reversal of down trend in production and use. Tighter supply situation due to increased exports.

  43. World Soybean Supply and UseMillion Metric Tons Source: Janauary 10, 2014 WASDE

  44. Soybean Price Outlook • Relatively tight US supply again, but World supply not as tight. • Crush about the same as last year. • Exports key for prices heading into 2014, China growth and positive crush returns indicate more soybean imports. • More acres in US and GA • Prices likely between $10 and $11 per bushel.

  45. Peanut Market Factors • Better crop than expected in 2013 leads to large carryover. • Exports down • Domestic Use up • Overall Use down

  46. Peanut Disappearance by Use

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