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entirely explain the cause-and-effect relations of phenomena, predict these phenomena,

WILL THE PRESENT-DAY SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES ENABLE TO FORECAST NATURAL DISASTERS? Trahel Vardanian Yerevan State University, Armenia.

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entirely explain the cause-and-effect relations of phenomena, predict these phenomena,

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  1. WILL THE PRESENT-DAY SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES ENABLE TO FORECAST NATURAL DISASTERS?Trahel VardanianYerevan State University, Armenia Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  2. In the age of present-day scientific and technical achievements, man’s safety does not seem to be ensured. In particular, it refers to the process of forecasting and managing natural phenomena. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  3. The end of XX century and the beginning of XXI century are distinguished by the abrupt growth of natural phenomena. In this respect, in the recent decades NATO and UNO have developed a number of projects and activities, aimed at the possible forecasting of natural phenomena, danger alleviation, as well as removal of consequences. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  4. Today, man is unable to resist to numerous natural disasters (earthquakes, floods and so on), of which he can become a victim any time. Science has developed thousands of mathematical models of forecasting natural disasters, which, however, cannot: entirely explain the cause-and-effect relations of phenomena, predict these phenomena, enable to withstand the expected hazards.

  5. The reason is that natural phenomena are: • multi-factoral, • they have a complex mechanism, which is like a higher live organism, • they cannot be managed by any science. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  6. Thus, mathematics cannot forecast these phenomena with its “dead” models, which can be fatal for man. Yet, mathematics has “managed” to make phenomena prediction rigid and bring them to forecasting field, and, by this, to assist to arrive at some solution of this issue. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  7. Now we shall try to create a mathematical schematic model for forecasting some natural phenomenon, as well as analyse its possibilities and setbacks. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  8. formed in river basins conditioned by water flow dangerous for society and environment They are overflows. Natural disasters and forming them factors are diverse. However, we will introduce the ones which are: Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  9. According to their origin, they can be: • downpour • flood (conditioned by snowmelt and ice melt) • wind-induced surge • ice-jam and ice-dam • dammed and cut-off Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  10. Based on the international researches on the overflows, it became clear that the overflows occupy: • the first place by the number of emergence of natural disasters (about 40% of all the disasters); • the second-third place by the number of casualty; • the first-third place by the degree of economic damage (billions of dollars). Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  11. weak average strong disastrous In river basins, according to the degree of danger the overflows may be: Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  12. The strong and disastrous overflows emerge under the influence of two or more factors (for instance, snowmelt + rainfall, downpour + dam destruction, etc.). • The downpour is the most widespread type of overflow. It can take place everywhere (except for Arctic and Antarctic), even in desert and semi-desert regions. • Rain overflows are rather dangerous in mountainous dry, extreme continental climate regions. They considerably raise the level of river water. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  13. The causes of the emergence of this type of overflows are: • short-term and intense rains (the annual portion of water from the rainfall may pour into river basins in single minutes) • the geological structure of rock basin (90% of precipitation fallen on impermeable rocks form a flow) • basin size • the declivity of basin slopes • the extent of vegetation cover of the basin • the extent of basin dissection • the anthropogenic factor • others Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  14. Downpour overflows usually occupy small drainage areas (up to 1000 km2) and are particularly dangerous for towns and rural areas. The threat is doubled due to the increase of the quantity of the hard sediment in water and mudflow emergence. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  15. Today, having a powerful scientific- technical potential and means, in particular, aerial space researches, photographing surveys, as well as geo-information system (GIS), man is able not only to forecast but also to prevent natural disasters. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  16. All the factors which can cause flood formation and which we had discussed earlier can be classified into the following groups: • climatic (C); • physical (Ph); • biological (B); • geological (G); • chemical (Ch); • anthropogenic (A) and others. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  17. These groups of factors are connected to one another multifunctional mathematical links, i.e., they are to have numeric ranges, which are not always present or reliable. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  18. Besides, if we establish a link between a natural disaster, in this case, flood (F) and influencing it factors:Then, at the first sight it seems as if the presence of many factors will reveal the essence of the phenomenon, will raise the degree of reliability of forecasting this disaster. F=f (C; Ph; B; G; Ch; A; and others) Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  19. That is so, the more factors are observed, the better the revelation will be. That is theoretically true. However, in practice, when the link between these factors is expressed in mathematical terms, then the correlation coefficient of this link becomes smaller, which means decrease of the degree of reliability. It means, that the language of mathematics is rigid. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  20. Conclusions • It is necessary to form a synthesized science(Geography is an example of such science), which would comprise all cause-and-effect relations contributing to forecasting of phenomena, and, what is most important, would “enliven” the rigid mathematical models used in studying these phenomena. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  21. It is important to build a geo-physical multi-factor mathematical “live” model able to operate. The model must have the following features: • plasticity; • flexibility; • pulsation; • reliability; • interrelation of links and feedback; • cohesion with other models. Solely in case of having these features the model will become “live”. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  22. The model must be nourished with the following information sources: • manned satellites (geo-physical, climatic data as well as maps and photographs) • geo-information stationary observation stations located on the Earth (data on flow-forming and other factors and others) Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  23. The model must work by means of: • data permanently received in the geo-information system • differential series obtained from the data and multi-factor links formed between them Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  24. “Live” model X Over flow Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  25. The model must be very sensitive-to be able to fix and analyze any slightest change of any factor and possible consequences. • The model must be able to define the factor or factors which for the given time or space may be disastrous. • This kind of models can be built not only for downpour overflows but also for any natural disaster (even for earthquakes), with consideration of its peculiarities. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  26. These models can give the opportunity to forecast disasters and undertake necessary means for their prevention. • Any region must have its characteristic model, each of which can be different, if not divergent. Velingrad, October 21-25, 2006

  27. Thank you for attention Contact address: Department of Physical Geography, Yerevan State University,1, Alek Manoukian Street, Yerevan, 375025, Republic of Armenia Fax: (374-10) 55-46-41 Email: tvardanian@ysu.am

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