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Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario

Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

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Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario

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  1. Rural Development is Getting Harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario Presentation to the session on Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks Ontario East Municipal Conference September 10, 2014 Kingston Ray D. Bollman RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan

  2. The demographic trends of rural Ontario • Conclusions • Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees • Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013 • Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013 • But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013 • Regarding employment trends • Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003 • In Eastern Ontario, employment in: • the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and • Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005 RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

  3. Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • Components of population change: • Natural Balance (births minus deaths) • Voting with your feet • Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or • International immigration Generally, migration is the largest component of population change across non-metro Ontario RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

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  7. Rural Development is getting harder: The demographic trends of rural Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • This implies labour market growth only from: • Net in-migration from elsewhere in Canada; or • International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

  8. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: • Natural Balance (births minus deaths) • Voting with your feet • Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or • International immigration RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

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  24. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: • Natural Balance (births minus deaths) RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

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  40. The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario • Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees • First, trends in total population • Then, components of population change: • Natural Balance (births minus deaths) • Voting with your feet • Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net

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