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EURODELTA 3 Focus on the retrospective analysis  Trend analysis

Explore retrospective analysis of air quality trends from 1990 to 2010 using advanced models. Evaluate emissions impact and model response over time. Evaluate phase II focusing on emissions, meteorology, and dataset consistency. Common input data set across models to track emissions and atmospheric components accurately. Incorporate boundary conditions and improve model outputs with detailed meteorological data, hindcast assessments, and aerosol species tracking. Collaboration with diverse modeling teams to achieve comprehensive analysis and drive air quality improvements.

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EURODELTA 3 Focus on the retrospective analysis  Trend analysis

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  1. EURODELTA 3 Focus on the retrospectiveanalysis  Trend analysis

  2. The two phases • Evaluation on the EMEP fieldcampaigns • 2006: 01/06 - 30/06 • 2007: 08/01 - 04/02 • 2008: 17/09 - 15/10 • 2009: 25/02 – 26/03 • Retrospectiveanalysis • Capacity of currentmodels to reproducemonitoredchanged in air quality • Retro. analysis 2008  1999 1990 2010 2010 • Response of models to sharpemission trend (1990- 1999 – 2008) • First stage of the modelling part of trend analysis • Common set of input data , domain Baseline yr GP. Signature of the GP.

  3. Achievements of Phase I • EMEP report written: • MSC-W Technical Report 1/2014 • "The EURODELTA III exercise. Model evaluationwith observations issuedfrom the 2009 EMEP intensive period and standard measurements in Feb/Mar 2009" • B. Bessagnet, A. Colette, F. Meleux, L. Rouïl, A. Ung, O. Favez, C. Cuvelier, P. Thunis, S. Tsyro, R. Stern, A. Manders, R. Kranenburg, A. Aulinger, J. Bieser, M. Mircea, G. Briganti, A. Cappelletti, G. Calori, S. Finardi, C. Silibello, G. Ciarelli, S. Aksoyoglu, A. Prévôt, M.-T. Pay, J. M. Baldasano, M. García Vivanco, J. L. Garrido, I. Palomino, F. Martín, G. Pirovano, P. Roberts, L. Gonzalez, L. White, L. Menut, J.-C. Dupont, C. Carnevale, A. Pederzoli • Five publications on the campaignsplanned

  4. EURODELTA participants • Met.No – UNECE (EMEP) (Phase I & II) • TNO – NL (LOTOS-EUROS) (Phase I & II) • INERIS – FR (CHIMERE) (Phase I & II) • FUB – DE (RCG) (Phase I & II?) • ENEA/Arianet - IT (MINNI) (Phase I & II) • HZG - DE (CMAQ ) (Phase I & II?) • PSI/RSE –CH/IT (CAMX) (Phase I & II) • BSC- ES (CMAQ) (Phase II) • CEREA – FR (POL’AIR) (Phase II) •  Trend analysis, 20 years (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP?, MINNI, otherswelcome)

  5. Main topics of phase II • Anthropogenic emissions : Temporal profiles, NO/NO2 ratio • Boundary conditions • Meteorology • Dataset consistency 1990 – 1999 – 2010 (met data, emissions, BC)

  6. General settings expected for the simulations • A commondomainshouldbe the best • Common emissiondataset for anthropogenicspecies • EMEP + gap fillingwith GAINS or only GAINS • Biogenicemissions (free), NO & VOC • Common set of boundary conditions for the Modelling Teams • Common meteorologyencouraged • Otheremissions : • Road dustresuspension, windblowndust (free) • Define an output species to trackthesespecies • POA chemistry (free) • Minimum aerosolspeciesrequired in the outputs (BC, POM, Other PPM, SOA, NO3, SO4, NH4, Sea Salt, Dust) • Requested output data : 1st model layer (no downscaling or assimilation)

  7. Meteorology • ECMWF/IFS wasused for recentCampaign analyses • Need to find a consistent 1990-2010 meteorological driver • => Hindcasts of CORDEX RegionalClimateDownscaling

  8. EURO-CORDEX • Hindcastwithperfectboundary conditions to assessregionalclimatemodels • WRF Driven by ERA-Interim, no nudging • Thoroughlydocumented in Kotlarski et al., GMD 2014 • Cover 1989-2008, extended to 2012 • Resolution : 30-40km

  9. Volume of data • Provided by Robert Vautard & AnnemiekStegehuis (LSCE/IPSL) • Optimised configuration, nudged • Volume • 139G/yr • 52G/yr for CHIMERE variables: • sigma of half-sigma level, sigma of full-sigma level, Surface pressure, Base-state pressure, Perturbation pressure, SW radiation down, LW radiation down, 2m-mixing ratio, Longitudes of cross points, Latitudes of cross points, Accumulated convective precipitation, Accumulated large scaleprecipitation, x-windat 10m, y-windat 10m, Surface sensible heatfluxSurface latent heat flux, Frictionalvelocity, 2m air temperature, SoilMoisturelevel 1, PBL heightfrom WRF, WRF x-wind WRF y-wind, Potentialtemperature, Cloud liquid water mixing ratio, Rain water mixing ratio, Specifichumidity, Water equiv. accum. snowdepth, Perturbation geopotential, Geopotential

  10. ED25n Domain • ED25n • 45,000 points, about 25km • Does not fit in Cordexdomain • Cordex22s • 32,500 points about 25km Cordex22s

  11. Emissions: some issues • Gasemissions on 50/50km availablefrom EMEP • Temporal profile : ED or TNO available • Regridding of 1990 industrial sources? East/West Germany • PM emissions in 1990 : GAINS-ECLIPSE, ratio PM/SOx or PM/NOx by sector and country for the spatialisation? • NO/NO2 ratio,  GAINS

  12. Differencesbetween 0.5° and 50km grids for Germany 50kmX50km 0.5°x0.5°

  13. Shipping emissionsat 0.5°

  14. Emissions: best datasetwe propose • Use of GAINS numbers for PM and Gases for the threeyears and for the twodecadesafterwards • « in-house » spatialisation • TNO for NH3 • INERIS proxies for SNAP7 and 8 (road and shipping) • INERIS proxies for residentialemissions • EPRTR for industrial sources (different for the threeyears) • UK and FR emission inventories embedded in the dataset (as proxy)

  15. NH3 emissions SNAP10 at 8km resolution

  16. NOxemissions SNAP7 at 8km resolution

  17. PM10 emissons SNAP2 at 8km resolution

  18. Boundary conditions • At least, O3, CO, CH4, Dust, OM, BC, SO4, NO3, NH4 • Monthlyfrequencyshouldbesufficient • Global chemistry-climatehindcast & projections • Eyring, et al., SPARC newsletter 2013 • Hindcastmost relevant to us: • 1960-2010 • Completed by end of 2014 • Cam-Chemresultscanbeprovided to Eurodelta • Based on MACCCity Emissions

  19. Model outputs to bedelivered (µg/m3) • Daily concentrations • NO3, NH4, SO4, Na, DUST, TPPM, ASOA, BSOA, PM10, PM2.5 • Size : add _25, _10, for PM2.5, PM10, fractions for PM components: • Ex: NO3_25 or NO3_10 • NH3, SO2, APINEN, ISOP, HNO3, H2O2, HCHO, PAN, VOC • O3max, O3mean • Hourly concentrations and met. • O3 , NO2 • PBL • Monthlydeposition • Dry dep. : DSOx, DNOx, DNHx • Wetdep : WSOx, WNOx, WNHx • Store at least PM10, PM2.5, Nitrate, Ammonium, Sulphate, SOA on an hourly basis on yourdisks • Onlysend the first level

  20. Ouput files • Same as for EURODELTA Phase I • Netcdf format (Daily, hourly, monthly) • INERIS ftp server

  21. EURODELTA  TREND ANALYSIS MT : Modelling Teams Today EURODELTA Phase II -INERIS provide 2010 emissions, meteorology and BC 31/12/2014 Production phase for 2010 MT run 2010 and send the results 28/02/2015 Validation on the main pollutants, species (INERIS) 31/03/2015 -INERIS provide 2000, 1990 emissions, meteorology and BC 30/04/2015 MODEL TREND ANALYSIS Production of the missingyearsbetween 1990 & 2010 30/09/2015 Analysis

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