Tony Dalton AHURI/NATSEM Research Centre at RMIT Thursday 21 st July

1. Swinburne University of Technology Housing management and policy programRemaking Social Housing: past, present and future? Tony Dalton AHURI/NATSEM Research Centre at RMIT Thursday 21st July

2. Introduction • Defining remade social housing • Statement of argument • The contemporary scene • A housing system that is beginning to fail • Social housing in the failing system • How did we get here? • Regime development and change • Social housing in this story • Prospects for social housing • Actors • Alliances • Conclusion

3. Remade social housing • Contributing to affordable housing supply • Financially viable • Customer satisfaction with stock & services • Longer term planning framework • Linked to other public policy objectives • Employment • Housing industry development • Education • Health • Urban planning • Environmental sustainability • Broad civil society and political support

4. Statement of argument • Problems • The housing system, including social housing, is increasingly being unmade • Unjoined-up housing policy debate and weak forces for change • Need for • A program • A viable policy process

5. Purchase affordability decline • Decline in home purchase affordability especially for • Lowest 40 percent of the income range • Younger households Wood et al 2004

6. Private rental affordability decline • Decline in rental affordability especially for • Lowest 40 percent of the income range • Decline in supply of low rent private rental stock Wood et al 2004 Yates et al 2004

7. Demand side change • Changing households • Increase in one person/income households • Increasing income inequality • Reflected in increase household inequality • Changing patterns of employment • Increase in low paid precarious work • Policy induced income reduction for young • HECs and compulsory superannuation

8. Supply side change • Borrowing flexibility and capacity • More lenders, competition and lending • Increased investment in housing • Trading up, upgrading and investing • Mobility in the housing system • Dwelling sales steady increase • House prices • Enormous real long term increase

9. House prices • I don’t get people stopping me in the street and saying John, you’re outrageous, under your government the value of my house has increased John Howard PM 2003 House price increase in Australia (Real price index) Productivity Commission 2004

10. Failing social housing system • Public and community housing stock • Changing demand • A problem with the assets • Reduced fiscal support • Special needs and new programs • Medium term viability

11. Public housing provision • Declining provision • 94 percent of total social housing stock Source AIHW 2004, 2005

12. Community housing provision • 6 percent of total social housing stock • Slow growth • Providers • Large number • Small average stock number • Population specific targeting • Large non metro focus Source AIHW 2005a

13. Changing demand • Changing demographics: more young, single parents and singles • Out of the labour force increase Dalton and Ong (2005)

14. Problem with the assets • Ageing stock assets have led to increased call on resources • Increases in maintenance expenditures • Depreciation estimates Hall and Berry (2004)

15. Reduced fiscal support • Grants • Government funds for public housing declined since mid 1980s • Rent • Tenant capacity to pay rent constrained Hall and Berry (2004) Dalton and Ong (2005)

16. New demands • Public housing tenants experience other forms of disadvantage • SHAs increasing provision of non-housing services Dalton and Ong (2005) Hall and Berry (2004)

17. Medium term viability? • 1990/91 all except 1 SHA in surplus • 2000/01 all except 2 SHAs in deficit Hall and Berry (2004)

18. How did we get here? • Public housing in the bigger picture

19. Housing policy regimes • Key measures used • ‘Fair wages’ in protected economy • Home ownership support measures • State owned banks • Concessional loans • Regulated finance • Deposit assistance • Mortgage insurance • Low start loans • Regional state • late 19th century to 1940s • Central state • 1940s to mid 1980s • Central state abrogation • mid 1980s to mid 1990s • All state abrogation • mid 1990s to...

20. More than neo-liberalism • Social expenditures as % GDP have increased despite neo-liberal advocacy • Housing social expenditures as % GDP have decreased Source: OECD 2003

21. Public housing and regimes Dalton (2004)

22. Public housing period

23. Objectives fade • Demand declines • Market delivers • Shortage overcome • Industry restructures • Opposition emerges • RAGs oppose slum reclamation • Public housing fails poor • Poor service for tenants

24. Federal Housing agencies Frequently reorganised Junior minister Demand and supply focus Central agencies Demand management No urban focus Federal role questioned State Housing authorities Operational Independent Junior ministers No policy capacity Central agencies No involvement because of CSHA Capacities of state agencies

25. Focus on emerging housing poverty in private rental market Many public tenants could afford the housing market Service provider capture by state housing authorities Support for private rental market overcomes capture Target public housing towards the lowest income Encourage higher income households to leave Jones, M. (1972) Housing and Poverty in Australia, Melbourne University Press, Melbourne. Priorities Review Staff (1975) Report on Housing, Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. Commission of Inquiry into Poverty (1975) Poverty in Australia, First Main Report Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra. A new research discourse

26. Housing program change • Target public housing • 8 CSHA renegotiations • Client focus and accountability • Change program mix • Rent assistance • Public housing funding • Community housing • Small stock • Lots of providers • Targeting Long run increase in priority allocations Vic

27. Welfare housing period

28. Federal Housing agencies Human service ministry no housing org identity Limited policy capacity Support for housing research Central agencies Periodic inquiries Industry Commission National Housing Strategy PMs Task Force Productivity Commission Inquiry Macro economy focus Housing industry focus No urban focus Reduced federal role pursued through COAG State Housing agencies Human service ministries Managerialist Consultative around program development Junior ministers Support for housing research Central agencies Some recent interest in urban housing issues State agency capacity

29. Prospects for social housing • A question of agenda setting • Context is policy sector or policy community • Actors in • Governments in the federation • private and non-govt agencies and associations • unions • professions • No mobilisation of tenants • Some actors more influential than others

30. Housing policy actors

31. Recent alliance processes • National Housing Conferences • Affordable Housing National Research Consortium • National Housing Alliance • National Summit on Housing Affordability • Organisations variously involved • ACOSS, UDIA, REIA, PCA, HIA, RAIA, ACTU, MBA, NCHF, API

32. An alliance precedent: HLIC 1964? • Mortgage insurance to expand housing finance • An 8 year campaign • People’s Housing Conference 1957 • Housing Conference in NSW Parliament 1958 • ACTU conferences 1958 • National Housing Finance Conference 1962 • Local meetings and film screenings • Extensive use of media • Alliances • Opposition • Treasury • Menzies PM • Banks

33. Situation appraisal Public housing Reducing provision Extreme targeting Support limited State agency housing policy capacity limited Local community group opposition to non-market housing Extensive research led understanding of housing system Responses Alliances forming Focus on affordability Broad agenda Past experience indicates a need for Agreement on narrowing agenda More resources and time required Broadening the base of groups Conclusion

34. References • Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) (2003) Commonwealth–State Housing Agreement national data reports 2002–03: public rental housing. AIHW cat. no. HOU 100., AIHW, Canberra • Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) (2005) Commonwealth–State Housing Agreement national data reports 2003–04: public rental housing, AIHW cat. no. HOU 114, Housing Assistance Data Development Series, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra • Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) (2005a) Commonwealth–State Housing Agreement national data reports 2003–04: CSHA community housing, AIHW cat. no. HOU113, Housing Assistance Data Development Series, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Canberra • Dalton, T. (2004) 'Public housing in Australia: A political problem', Parity and Housing Works, Vol.17, No.11, pp.10. • Dalton, T. and Ong, R. (2005) An Audit of Australian and Overseas Policy Initiatives Designed to Promote Housing Policy and Economic Participation Goals, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Melbourne • Hall, J. and Berry, M. (2004) Operating deficits and public housing: policy options for reversing the trend, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Melbourne, www.ahuri.edu.au • OECD (2005) OECD Social Expenditure Database, OECD, Paris, http://www.oecd.org/home/ • Productivity Commission (2004) First Home Ownership, Report no.28, Productivity Commission, Melbourne • Wood, G., Berry, M., Dalton, T., Pettit, C., Allan, I., Leong, K. and Stokes, A. (2005) Affordable Housing for low Income Victorians: A Summary of a Report on Research on Recent Trends and Issues in Affordable Housing Carried out For the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet, AHURI, RMIT University, Melbourne • Yates, J., Wulff, M. and Reynolds, M. (2004) Changes in the supply of and need for low rent dwellings in the private rental market, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Melbourne, www.ahuri.edu.au