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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address

The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address. Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES. The scientific debate. “... small earthquake have some probability of cascading into a large event …” Geller et al

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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address

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  1. The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening Address Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES

  2. The scientific debate “... small earthquake have some probability of cascading into a large event …” Geller et al “Earthquake prediction is difficult but not impossible, …” Knopoff The problem “No satisfactory theory of theearthquakesource process exists at present”, Geller

  3. The APEC Cooperation forEarthquake Simulation (ACES) • To develop realistic numerical simulation models • 2. To foster collaboration • 3. To foster development of infrastructure & programs Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake generation and earthquake cycles

  4. Spatial Scale, m Spatial Scale, m Time scale, sec. Time scale, sec. Multi-scale simulator

  5. Outcomes • Simulation models • 3 x 2 volume journal issues + 3 proceedings • Collaboration • Earthquake physics & catastrophic failure • Simulation models and software • Australia, China, Japan, USA visitors & collab programs (30+ visits, joint publications) • Infrastructure • GEM, ServoGrid, QuakeSim • Earth Simulator, GeoFEM • Key national program for catastroophic failure • ACcESS MNRF

  6. Japan Earth Simulator: The world’s fastest supercomputer GeoFEM: Premier large-scale finite-element software platform for solid earth simulation • Solid Earth Simulator Project: • Forefront macro-scale research • Subduction zone dynamics, • crustal activity and strong motion • Mantle and core dynamics Courtesy of Okuda, Matsu’ura and Matsui

  7. China Fracture physics, mesoscopic damage models, intraplate observations Courtesy of Yin, Xia and Bai

  8. USASimulation of the CA interacting fault system Courtesy of Rundle, Donnellan and Olsen

  9. Australia • Micro-models • Earthquake physics and dynamics • Crustal & mantle models

  10. The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS)Major National Research Facility A multi-scale multi-physics ESS • Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability • Provide a computational virtual earth serving • Australia’s national needs • One of two science Major National Research Facilities • being established in Australia • Developsoftware & models, and establish • thematic supercomputerneeded for research outcomes

  11. Victoria • ACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT • Geology, tectonics reconstruction • Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT Queensland (MNRF HQ) QUAKES Micro-models, LSMearth software Comp. ES, earthquakes ParticleModels ContinuumModels DataAssimilation PostProcessing Visualisation … Western Australia Theory Observ’s Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA Communication Substrate Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics Comp. mech, mining, Computational Virtual earth laboratory Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary

  12. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  13. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  14. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics (Muhlhaus and Weatherley)

  15. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  16. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  17. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics (Mora and Place)

  18. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  19. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics (Mora and Place)

  20. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  21. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics (Sandiford)

  22. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics

  23. convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics (Moresi and Muhlhaus)

  24. BENEFITS convergent plate boundary transform plate boundary continental crust divergent plate boundary oceanic spreading ridge convergent plate boundary trench strato volcano trench shield volcano oceanic crust island arc hot spot subducting plate lithosphere asthenosphere Earth dynamics • Planetary scale minerals exploration • predictive capacity for regional scale crustal deformation and mineralisation • vastly improved scientific underpinning for natural & human-induced geohazard mitigation and prevention • virtual prototyping innovations of massive or national scale natural and engineered systems • a potential for high-tech spin-offs involving novel mining and materials engineering technologies

  25. Super-Computer Capacity EXPERT USER Parameter Setting Interface (input) Interface (translator) Software Type 1 Visualisation Interface (input / output) Interface (translator) Software Type 2 Interface (translator) Software Type 3 Template Thinking / Selling Tool (most parameters set) NON- EXPERT USER Inversion Software (Complex System Science) Database 1 Thermodynamic Interface Database 2 Rock property Software framework Software Independent Problem Formulation (Geometric & Mathematical)

  26. ACcESS BOARD Mike Etheridge CHAIR CHAIR RESEARCH COMMITTEE CEO TBA Peter Mora MODEL & SOFTWARE CONSTRUCTION DATA ASSIMILATION & SURFACE PROCESSES Muhlhaus, Appelbe, Gross Lister & Applebe Long Term Short Term CONTINUUM PARTICLE & EXPLICIT DATA ASSIMILATION G. Lister, L. Ailleress Monash H. Muhlhaus UQ D.I. & H.X. UQ PLATE MANTLE CRUSTAL DYNAMICS VIRTUAL EARTH A. Dyskin UWA S. Abe UQ MULTISCALE MODELLING EXPLICIT SIM. PLATFORM M. Sandiford Melb. Uni. SURFACE PROCESSES P. A-Epping / P.Hornby CSIRO D. Weatherly UQ MINERALISATION CELLULAR AUTOMATA GEOTALK L. Gross (UQ) Management structure

  27. Computational Virtual earth laboratory c.f. GCM’s Model Observns Analysis Vision for future solid earth systems science A predictive capability for solid earth system dynamics Advances in understanding solid earth physics, numerical simulation methodology & supercomputer technology are bringing the vision within reach

  28. Next steps • Integrate software developments and computational environments/algorithms • Ramp-up of national programs to capture benefits of investment in research infrastructure • Enhance supercomputers and connectivity • Strengthen international collaboration and establish large scale programatic research - international institute in two years time frame iSERVO Institute International Solid Earth Research Virtual Earth Institute

  29. Computational Virtual earth laboratory Model Observn’s Analysis SimulationA powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs

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