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CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science

CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science. Mark Janssen – LADCO CMAS CONFERENCE October 6-8, 2008 Chapel Hill, North Carolina. What is CONCEPT?. Open Source PostgreSQL based chemical transport emissions model

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CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science

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  1. CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science Mark Janssen – LADCO CMAS CONFERENCE October 6-8, 2008 Chapel Hill, North Carolina

  2. What is CONCEPT? • Open Source PostgreSQL based chemical transport emissions model • Integrated GIS(postgis), fully spatially enabled • Data and code transparency is a critical element to understand how data will be processed.

  3. CONCEPT Emissions Model • Foundation of development community • Point and Area - Improved Temporal • Nonroad – Runs day specific met/Temporal • Link Level Onroad Mobile • Process Based Ammonia • Internal GIS for visualization, spatial allocation. Spatial processing just happens.

  4. Recent CONCEPT Developments • Process Based Ammonia Model • Biogenics and MEGAN • Link based onroad QA. • Google Earth implementation • Base “N” 2005 inventory beyond RPO’s

  5. Focus of Improvements • Data Transparency, Can we understand the data we are using: Google Earth, Onroad QA, • Updated Science: Megan, Process based NH3 model • Improved Performance: NH3 Model • Development and use of model in components that are most different from existing tools.

  6. UC Davis/Riverside Process Based Agricultural Ammonia • Consider and analyze all physical, chemical and biochemical processes and reactions that take place and influence ammonia emission rate, • Employ processed based mechanistic and empirical models • Keep mass balances for the flow of nitrogen through each component of an animal waste management system. • New work to create C++ version of the model that is fast enough to build national inventory.

  7. Why High Resolution NH3 • Wintertime PM2.5 nitrate peak critical to northern 24 hour PM. • Early modeling seem to indicate NH3 is the limiting pollutant. • Ambient data and processed based model indicate 4x higher emissions on these days.

  8. CONCEPT Onroad • Link based onroad inventory • Enhanced temporal allocation. • T3 tool translates from common Travel Demand Models. • Slow to run, but able to resolve many interesting things. 40% drop in NOX in Detroit on weekends due to HDDV changes. Not happening in Chicago.

  9. Interstate Vehicle Mix by State and Urban/Rural

  10. How Link Level Data Changes QA • Current HPMS county level inventories are hard to test against reality. • New methods result in ability to ask “What are the attributes of a link at a specific hour.” • Example Boreman Expressway +50% HDDV congested to 20mph at 3AM • MOBILE6 inputs in database/GIS so easier to ask difficult questions. Example, fleet age distributions of.

  11. Motor Vehicles

  12. MEGAN Biogenics Model • Implement MEGAN biogenics code into CONCEPT. • Must match photochemical model species with MEGAN species. • Must parse 54 Organic Species to CAMx SOA Species • TOLA, XYLA, ISP, CG3, SQT, TRP

  13. Comparing MEGAN and BIOME Emissions Comparison of MEGAN and EMS/BIOME (BEIS3soa) isoprene (July 1, 2002 day)  MEGAN predicts similar total daily tons over the modeling domain as BIOME MEGAN estimates more isoprene in the central U.S.

  14. Base K Base J Base M1 Base M2

  15. Google Earth In CONCEPT • CONCEPT has an integrated full feature GIS. Integrated means all tables are spatially enabled. CYID  map • Google earth cannot handle large data sets. 24 hours of 12km data set for regional grid is too much. • Must dissolve cell boundaries for similar cells. • Project from RPO Lambert to Google Earth(Geo) • Mostly for non-modeler inventory folks as a QA tool.

  16. Future of Google Earth in CONCEPT • Export diagnostic reports as Google earth input, IE. Large sources with problematic coordinates • Export link level characteristics for onroad and rail traffic. • Mostly for non-modelers to QA inventory problem with tools publicly available. • People take ownership of inventory when they can look at it at the neighborhood level.

  17. Base “N” • First LADCO inventory that will use CONCEPT for all sectors. • Remaining sectors are those most similar to existing models SMOKE/EMS. (Point,Area). • SIP timing requires that all inventory science and model development done by June 1st 2010

  18. Beyond RPO’s • ERTAC, Group of eastern states with a goal of improving inventories for regional analysis. • Work will be done by states/regional groups Marine and Rail Inventories Area Source Comparability Agricultural NH3 2005 Modeling Inventory EGU temporalization methods from CEM Canadian emissions (2005/2008) Evaluation of IPM Primary OC from onroad Wildfires/Prescribed burns Temporal modeling profiles.

  19. The People That Did the Work • Biogenics • Jim Wilkinson- Alpine Geophysics • Kirk Baker – LADCO • Onroad • Allison Pollack et al Environ • Google Earth • Jim Wilkinson – Alpine Geophysics • Ammonia Model • Zion Wang – UC Riverside • Ruhong Zhang – UC Davis

  20. Model This!!

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