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MPB Mitigation Silviculture Treatments To mitigate timber supply problems in management units affected by catastrophic mountain pine beetle Presentation to MOF Executive 20-Jun-05. Context. On Jan 17, 2005 FPB made a presentation on ”Timber restoration strategies for Interior BC"
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MPB Mitigation Silviculture Treatments To mitigate timber supply problems in management units affected by catastrophic mountain pine beetle Presentation to MOF Executive 20-Jun-05
Context • On Jan 17, 2005 FPB made a presentation on ”Timber restoration strategies for Interior BC" • During that presentation, the executive requested that FPB provide further information that would clarify the merits of mitigation silviculture treatments • This presentation will provide information for a decision to support fertilization as a mitigation treatment
Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply
Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply • Identify • How fertilization can mitigate short and mid-term timber supply shortfalls • Anticipated fertilization response in Interior stands • Potential areas for fertilization • Proposed fertilization program
Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply • Identify • How fertilization can mitigate short and mid-term timber supply shortfalls • Anticipated fertilization response in Interior stands • Potential areas for fertilization • Proposed fertilization program • Confirm • MOF Executive direction regarding program components and budget
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply • Many jurisdictions in similar latitudes (e.g., Sweden, Finland) have used fertilization effectively to improve timber supply
ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply • Many jurisdictions in similar latitudes (e.g., Sweden, Finland) have used fertilization effectively to improve timber supply • Preliminary analysis of Williams Lake, Prince George, Quesnel, and Lakes TSAs indicates positive opportunities for fertilization to improve timber supply shortfalls
Forest Dynamics(conceptual)How fertilization mitigates MPB effects harvest volume • Fertilizing 30- to 70-year-old stands (blue) can increase harvest volumes 20–40 years from now 0 years from now 250 area MPB mortality area age class distribution
Forest Dynamics(conceptual)How fertilization mitigates MPB effects harvest volume • Fertilizing 30- to 70-year-old stands (blue) can increase harvest volumes 20–40 years from now • Fertilizing 15- to 30-year-old stands (green) can increase harvest volumes 40–70 years from now 0 years from now 250 area MPB mortality area age class distribution
Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization
Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization • Fertilizer response potential of interior lodgepole pine is well documented and local fertilizer response information for other species (Fdi, Sx) is available
Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization • Fertilizer response potential of interior lodgepole pine is well documented and local fertilizer response information for other species (Fdi, Sx) is available • Local response data for Fdi and Sx can be supplemented with data from other jurisdictions
Fertilization ResponseSix-year volume increment (m3/ha) range of response (m3/ha) 28 24 20 range mean 16 12 8 4 0 BC Interior Douglas-fir Interior spruce
Fertilization ResponseNorway spruce Stand Age (years) 40 60 80 100 Poor -- 12 13 13 Medium 15 16 16 15 Good 14 15 14 13 Yield (m3/ha) Site Class Northern Sweden(Pettersson 2001)
Fertilization ResponseDouglas-fir 6-year mean volume increment (m3/ha) volume increment (m3/ha) 120 100 16% fertilizationresponse unfertilized 25% 13% 80 40 20 Inland Northwest(Moore et al, 1991) 0 Central Wash. NE. Wash. N. Idaho
Fertilization ResponseMultiple treatments,10-yr old interior spruce standing volume (m3/yr) 80 70 256% ON2 60 181% ON1 50 40 94% NSB 30 20 Control 10 Brockley and Simpson(2004) 0 0 3 6 9 years following establishment
FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands
FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization
FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization • Young and early-mature stands respond favourably to nutrient additions
FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization • Young and early-mature stands respond favourably to nutrient additions • Growth gains from repeated fertilization are potentially very large
Regional Opportunities for FertilizationFd- and S-leading stands ages 0–60 years 000s ha 300 0–20 years 20–40 years 40–60 years 250 200 150 100 50 0 TFL 52 100 MileTSA WilliamsLake TSA QuesnelTSA PrinceGeorge TSA
Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall
Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall • Help reduce community/regional economic impacts from MPB • provide short- and mid-term employment • invest in timber assets on public forest land
Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall • Help reduce community/regional economic impacts from MPB • provide short- and mid-term employment • invest in timber assets on public forest land • Complement other strategic investments in timber supply mitigation efforts
Fertilization ProgramStrategic approach • BC Interior • Areas facing major timber supply impacts from MPB, wildfire • Within key units, initially focus on spruce, Douglas-fir stands • Identify sites for treatment in 15- to 70-year old stands • Treat large, contiguous blocks of eligible stands • Focus on stands close to roads and rail lines
Fertilization ProgramProposed budget Program $ Implementation Planning (assess / select sites, review with districts) Administration, auditing (PwC portion) Overhead (auditing, reporting) 12M 10M 8M 6M 4M 2M 0M 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Fertilization ProgramProposed area to be treated 000s ha 40 35 35,000 30 29,000 25 23,000 23,000 20 18,000 15 10 5 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Economics • When done on the right sites and for the right objectives fertilization of stands can return • 15 m3/ha of additional volume within 10 years • shorten technical rotations by 3-4 years • 3-12% mid-term timber supply impacts • 2-5% internal rates of return • 0.15 pdays/ha employment in fertilization • 2.77 direct and indirect jobs per 1000 m3 produced
Risks • Water • protect through fertilizer free zones • Watershed impacts • limit applications in sensitive watersheds • Insects • limit fertilization of pine till epidemic runs it course • avoid areas with defoliating insects
Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares
Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares • Expected volume gain: ~ 2.0 million m3
Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares • Expected volume gain: ~ 2.0 million m3 • Availability: 2020 (or as needed)
Questions for Executive • Do you approve fertilization as a MPB mitigation silviculture treatment?Options: Yes/No • If yes, do you authorize investigation of possible funding sources?Options: Yes/No