Mitigating Timber Supply Issues Caused by Mountain Pine Beetle Through Silviculture Treatments

1. MPB Mitigation Silviculture Treatments To mitigate timber supply problems in management units affected by catastrophic mountain pine beetle Presentation to MOF Executive 20-Jun-05

2. Context • On Jan 17, 2005 FPB made a presentation on ”Timber restoration strategies for Interior BC" • During that presentation, the executive requested that FPB provide further information that would clarify the merits of mitigation silviculture treatments • This presentation will provide information for a decision to support fertilization as a mitigation treatment

3. Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply

4. Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply • Identify • How fertilization can mitigate short and mid-term timber supply shortfalls • Anticipated fertilization response in Interior stands • Potential areas for fertilization • Proposed fertilization program

5. Presentation Objectives • Clarify • How MPB affects timber supply • Identify • How fertilization can mitigate short and mid-term timber supply shortfalls • Anticipated fertilization response in Interior stands • Potential areas for fertilization • Proposed fertilization program • Confirm • MOF Executive direction regarding program components and budget

6. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem

7. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now

8. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands

9. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply

10. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply • Many jurisdictions in similar latitudes (e.g., Sweden, Finland) have used fertilization effectively to improve timber supply

11. ContextMountain pine beetle • MPB mortality and salvage is disrupting forest age class distributions, creating a timber supply problem • Every tree to be harvested in the next 40–60 years is in the ground now • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Fertilization can be used strategically to mitigate “pinch points” in the timber supply • Many jurisdictions in similar latitudes (e.g., Sweden, Finland) have used fertilization effectively to improve timber supply • Preliminary analysis of Williams Lake, Prince George, Quesnel, and Lakes TSAs indicates positive opportunities for fertilization to improve timber supply shortfalls

12. Forest Dynamics(conceptual)How fertilization mitigates MPB effects harvest volume • Fertilizing 30- to 70-year-old stands (blue) can increase harvest volumes 20–40 years from now 0 years from now 250 area MPB mortality area age class distribution

13. Forest Dynamics(conceptual)How fertilization mitigates MPB effects harvest volume • Fertilizing 30- to 70-year-old stands (blue) can increase harvest volumes 20–40 years from now • Fertilizing 15- to 30-year-old stands (green) can increase harvest volumes 40–70 years from now 0 years from now 250 area MPB mortality area age class distribution

14. Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization

15. Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization • Fertilizer response potential of interior lodgepole pine is well documented and local fertilizer response information for other species (Fdi, Sx) is available

16. Fertilization Response • The ministry has done 25 years of fertilizer research in the interior and has published scientific information for several species, sites, and ages • Work has been done in close cooperation with universities, industry, and others leading to good support for operational fertilization • Fertilizer response potential of interior lodgepole pine is well documented and local fertilizer response information for other species (Fdi, Sx) is available • Local response data for Fdi and Sx can be supplemented with data from other jurisdictions

17. Fertilization ResponseSix-year volume increment (m3/ha) range of response (m3/ha) 28 24 20 range mean 16 12 8 4 0 BC Interior Douglas-fir Interior spruce

18. Fertilization ResponseNorway spruce Stand Age (years) 40 60 80 100 Poor -- 12 13 13 Medium 15 16 16 15 Good 14 15 14 13 Yield (m3/ha) Site Class Northern Sweden(Pettersson 2001)

19. Fertilization ResponseDouglas-fir 6-year mean volume increment (m3/ha) volume increment (m3/ha) 120 100 16% fertilizationresponse unfertilized 25% 13% 80 40 20 Inland Northwest(Moore et al, 1991) 0 Central Wash. NE. Wash. N. Idaho

20. Fertilization ResponseMultiple treatments,10-yr old interior spruce standing volume (m3/yr) 80 70 256% ON2 60 181% ON1 50 40 94% NSB 30 20 Control 10 Brockley and Simpson(2004) 0 0 3 6 9 years following establishment

21. FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands

22. FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization

23. FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization • Young and early-mature stands respond favourably to nutrient additions

24. FertilizationKey concepts • Fertilization is a proven method for increasing harvest volume and accelerating the operability of established stands • Interior forests are nutrient deficient; Douglas-fir and spruce stands respond positively to fertilization • Young and early-mature stands respond favourably to nutrient additions • Growth gains from repeated fertilization are potentially very large

25. Regional Opportunities for FertilizationFd- and S-leading stands ages 0–60 years 000s ha 300 0–20 years 20–40 years 40–60 years 250 200 150 100 50 0 TFL 52 100 MileTSA WilliamsLake TSA QuesnelTSA PrinceGeorge TSA

26. Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall

27. Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall • Help reduce community/regional economic impacts from MPB • provide short- and mid-term employment • invest in timber assets on public forest land

28. Fertilization ProgramGoals, objectives • Mitigate timber supply shortfalls that will occur in 20 to 70 years • add merchantable volume to 15- to 70-year old stands (make operable sooner, redistribute timber availability) • reduce depth and duration of timber supply shortfall • Help reduce community/regional economic impacts from MPB • provide short- and mid-term employment • invest in timber assets on public forest land • Complement other strategic investments in timber supply mitigation efforts

29. Fertilization ProgramStrategic approach • BC Interior • Areas facing major timber supply impacts from MPB, wildfire • Within key units, initially focus on spruce, Douglas-fir stands • Identify sites for treatment in 15- to 70-year old stands • Treat large, contiguous blocks of eligible stands • Focus on stands close to roads and rail lines

30. Fertilization ProgramInitial program focus and implications

31. Fertilization ProgramInitial program focus and implications

32. Fertilization ProgramInitial program focus and implications

33. Fertilization ProgramInitial program focus and implications

34. Fertilization ProgramProposed budget Program $ Implementation Planning (assess / select sites, review with districts) Administration, auditing (PwC portion) Overhead (auditing, reporting) 12M 10M 8M 6M 4M 2M 0M 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

35. Fertilization ProgramProposed area to be treated 000s ha 40 35 35,000 30 29,000 25 23,000 23,000 20 18,000 15 10 5 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

36. Economics • When done on the right sites and for the right objectives fertilization of stands can return • 15 m3/ha of additional volume within 10 years • shorten technical rotations by 3-4 years • 3-12% mid-term timber supply impacts • 2-5% internal rates of return • 0.15 pdays/ha employment in fertilization • 2.77 direct and indirect jobs per 1000 m3 produced

37. Risks • Water • protect through fertilizer free zones • Watershed impacts • limit applications in sensitive watersheds • Insects • limit fertilization of pine till epidemic runs it course • avoid areas with defoliating insects

38. Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares

39. Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares • Expected volume gain: ~ 2.0 million m3

40. Timber Volume ResponseProposed five-year fertilization program • Area fertilized: 128,000 hectares • Expected volume gain: ~ 2.0 million m3 • Availability: 2020 (or as needed)

41. Questions for Executive • Do you approve fertilization as a MPB mitigation silviculture treatment?Options: Yes/No • If yes, do you authorize investigation of possible funding sources?Options: Yes/No