Export History From Washington State Input-Output Models

1. Export History From Washington State Input-Output Models Bill Beyers Geography – UW March 5, 2013

2. The Economic Base • Trade to other regions fuels overall job levels in the Washington State economy • The historical series of input-models provides a set of snapshots of how the level and composition of the state economic base has changed over time • Three export markets are tracked in these models: federal government, exports to the rest of the United States, and foreign exports

3. Notes on these graphs • Data for the following graphs come from the 8 Washington input-output models • These models are largely based on survey data • The models have been aggregated in a common sectoring scheme in constant $, to control for changing industry definitions and inflation that varies by sector • Underlying data is available at a 25-sector level, aggregated here in most cases to 10 sectors for clarity

4. Changing Export Markets U.S. export markets are consistently 60% of total exports; federal markets have clearly fallen, while foreign markets have grown

5. Exports By Sector

6. Composition of Exports

7. Exports by Market Type • The next slides report export levels and sector mix by market type • Federal government exports have declined as a share of the total, but in constant $1972 have risen from $1.8 billion in 1963 to $3.8 billion in 2007 • Exports to the rest of the United States remain the largest market for Washington industries, rising from $4 to $35 billion in constant $1972 • Foreign exports have grown over time, basically replacing the federal government as an export market. In constant $1972 foreign exports have risen from $0.6 billion to $21 billion

8. Federal Export Share by Sector A huge drop in aerospace, a rise in services. Other mfg. has seen a change in the role Of Hanford (mostly now in services) and Bremerton Naval Yard (in other mfg.)

9. Federal Exports in Constant $1972

10. Exports to the Rest of the U.S. Goods production shrinks from about 88% in 1963 to about 52% in 2007, with a clear Rise in the share of exports of services. Forest products shows a long-run decline.

11. Exports to the Rest of the U.S. in constant $1972

12. Foreign Exports Natural resource, food and forest products decline from about 54% to about 18% of foreign Exports, while all manufacturing & natural resources declines from about 90% to about 68% Of exports. Service industries show a systematic rise in the share of exports.

13. Exports to foreign markets in constant $1972 Aerospace clearly led this expansion of foreign trade, but it has become more diversified In recent years.

14. Summary (1) • This history from the Washington input-output models is unique • No other state has an historical sequence of data of this type • These data identify markets changing in absolute and relative levels over time • They clearly indicate the strong continuing role of domestic markets for Washington industries, while foreign markets have grown at the same time as federal markets have declined

15. Summary (2) • Economic Development program strategy implications of this history include: - do not focus only on foreign trade– the U.S. and the federal government are very important markets - the shift of the economy towards services means that they must be an important part of economic development strategies • It would be risky to extrapolate the trend data presented here • Ideas for expanding analyses of the history of the Washington I/O models are welcomed.