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Austria‘s emission projections

Austria‘s emission projections. Stephan Poupa & Melanie Sporer, 10th Mai 2010. Outline. General System Models and Methods Results Outlook. 1. General System. NISA and EMIPRO reporting Institutional arrangements Scenario development Policies and measures. General System.

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Austria‘s emission projections

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  1. Austria‘semissionprojections Stephan Poupa & Melanie Sporer, 10th Mai 2010

  2. Outline • General System • Models andMethods • Results • Outlook

  3. 1. General System • NISA and EMIPRO reporting • Institutionalarrangements • Scenario development • Policiesandmeasures General System

  4. Submission under UNFCCC National Inventory Report (NIR), Common Reporting Format (CRF) Tables, National Communications Reporting (NISA and EMIPRO) UNFCCC + Kyoto Protocol Submission under UNECE/LTRAP Informative Inventory Report (IIR), Nomenclaturefor Reporting (NFR) Tables UNECE/LRTAP + Protocols General System Submission under EC GHG MonitoringMechanismCRF Tables/Short NIR, EMIPRO Report, PaMs & ProjectionsTables EC GHG MonitoringMechanism EC NEC Directive Submission under EC NECNFR Tablesfor NEC Gases and Report ------------------- Environmental ControlAct Policies & Measures andProjections National Reports totheparliamentandforthepublic 4

  5. Institutionalarrangements BMLFUW: contractingbody Umweltbundesamt: overallcoordination, technicalsupport, compilation, wasteprojections, autoproducer, policiesandmeasures, … WIFO: generalmacro-economicdata;industrialproduction General System TU Vienna: ERNSTL; inputrenewables Energieagentur: BALMOREL, LEAP TU Graz: GLOBEMI, GEORG WIFO, Gumpen-stein: PASMA

  6. Scenario development • with measures - scenario (wm) and a with additional measures -scenario (wam) for GHG; wm -scenario for air pollutants • the underlying wm- forecast (activity data) takes into account climate change mitigation measures that were implemented under the Austrian Climate Strategies 2002 and 2007 before 8th August 2008 • wam – forecast takes into account planned policies and measures with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time. General System All additional measures have been defined at expert level in consultation with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW).

  7. 2. Models andMethods • Modeling frameworkandsectoralapproach • Quality management • Uncertaintyassessment • Key parameters Models and Methods

  8. Modeling frameworkforemissionprojections Transport Forecast (bottom-up national transport model GLOBEMI) Forecast Industrial Processes, Solvents, F-Gases (EAA,macro-economic model) WasteForecast (EAA and expert judgements) Energy Forecast (national energybalance, macro-economic model, 3 bottomup , models) AgriculturalForecast (PASMA model and expert consultations) Models and methods Sectoral Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA) National Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA)

  9. Quality management • Questionnaire has been used for checking input data for compliance with the most important data quality requirements • Several data consistency checks have been performed e.g. by documentation of data inputs and changes in the calculation files; fixed input form has been used for each sector • Often same person responsible for sectoral emission projections and Inventory; some sectors use emission methods based on the verified inventory methods • An output data check has been carried out by comparing the results of the sectors in detail and checking the plausibility of the emission trends • There are iterative feedback-loops between modeling teams, sectoral experts, and sectoral inventory experts in which scenarios, assumptions and policies and measures included in the forecasts are discussed Models and methods

  10. Key underlyingassumptions Models and methods averageoilpriceoftheenergy model (WIFO): USD120 (USD/€ 1,37)

  11. UncertaintyAssessment Sensitivity assessments have been performed for specific (sub-) sectors, analysing the increase and decrease of key factors or of a combination of key factors: • Energy sector: influence of the natural gas price, electricity demand and electricity imports on CO2 emissions of Energy Industries; influence of the oil price on CO2 emissions from Manufacturing Industries and Construction; changes of renovation rate and changes of boiler exchange rates on CO2 emissions from the Residential and Commercial sector; influence of fuel price differences between Austria and neighbouring countries on CO2 emissions from Transport • Agricultural sector: changes of product prices Models and methods

  12. 3. Results • Sensitivity Analysis • Submission under EC NEC Directive • Submission under UNECE/ LRTAP Convention Results

  13. Sensitivityanalysistransport Results

  14. Sensitivityanalysisresidentials Results

  15. EC NEC Directive Results

  16. UNECE/LTRAP Convention Results

  17. 4. Outlook • More flexibility in developmentofvariedreductionscenarios • Assesssynergiesandtradeoffsbetweengases (AQ/CC) • Update ofenergyprojections 2030 • Long termscenarios 2050 (maybeotherapproach e.g. backcasting) • Improveduncertaintyassessment • National Emission Projections System Austria (maybe GAINS, Access,….) Outlook

  18. Contact & Information Stephan Poupa stephan.poupa@umweltbundesamt.at Melanie Sporer melanie.sporer@umweltbundesamt.at Umweltbundesamtwww.umweltbundesamt.at • Joint TFEIP/EIONET meetingLarnaca■ 10th Mai

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