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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005

Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005 Contents: Monthly and submonthly features Seasonal mean features Verification of CPC Predictions CPC outlooks 1. Monthly & Submonthly Features

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Climate Review for February 2005 Song Yang NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 8 March 2005

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  1. Climate Reviewfor February 2005Song YangNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center8 March 2005 Contents:Monthly and submonthly featuresSeasonal mean featuresVerification of CPC PredictionsCPC outlooks

  2. 1. Monthly & Submonthly Features “I don’t understand why meteorologists use the CALENDAR monthly means”

  3. Feb T’

  4. Weekly T Anomalies Week 1 Week 3 Week 2 Week 4

  5. Weekly T’ Europe 20-26 Feb Weekly T’ Canada

  6. Feb P’

  7. Weekly P Ratio Week 1 Week 3 Week 2 Week 4

  8. Australia Feb T’ & P’ T’ P’

  9. California Again! 19th

  10. Daily Precip in Feb 2005

  11. 90-Day Precip & OLR Time Series

  12. SOI NINO3.4 SST

  13. Darwin Tahiti

  14. ???

  15. X

  16. 12-18 <5th 6-11 19-25 Global Hazards

  17. Jan. Floods Lasting to Feb. USA Indonesia Guyana Angola Mozambique Madagascar

  18. Guyana Long-lasting floods!

  19. Mozambique Frequent floods during the past years

  20. New Floods in February Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Greece Pakistan Venezuela Saudi Arabia Colombia Indonesia Brazil Bolivia Australia Australian floods: damage of $200 mil

  21. Pakistan floods: most deadly in 2005 so far

  22. Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan flood: Affected 135,400 Km2; 2nd most extensive in 2005, after the northeastern Australian flood during 23-28 January

  23. 2. Seasonal Mean Features Oops! We only had 28 days in this February.

  24. DJF T’

  25. DJF P’

  26. El Nino Features? DJF T’ DJF P’

  27. 3. Verification of CPC predictions

  28. Feb 2005 TOfficial, Update, & Observations Off. Up. Change All Stations: 18.4 41.0 22.6 Non-EC: 40.6 57.1 16.5 % Cov: 45.3 71.8 26.5 OBS UPD 0.5 Lead

  29. Feb 2005 POfficial, Update, & Observations Off. Up. Change All Stations: 19.7 0.4 -19.3 Non-EC: 52.5 0.8 -51.5 % Cov: 37.6 53.0 15.4 OBS UPD 0.5 Lead

  30. All Non-EC % Cov 9.4 14.9 63.2 DJF T Outlook DJF T Obs

  31. All Non-EC % Cov 1.3 3.6 35.9 DJF P Outlook DJF P Obs

  32. 4. CPC Climate Outlooks

  33. Monthly T & P Outlooks For March

  34. For JJA Seasonal T & P Outlooks For MAM

  35. Consolidation NINO3.4 SST Prediction

  36. Drought Outlook Through May

  37. Soil Moisture Outlook Through Mar Thr Jun Thr May Thr Aug

  38. Acknowledgements Gerry Bell, Yun Fan, Mike Halpert, John Janowiak, Doug LeComte, Wei Shi, Jim Wagner, and Yan Xue

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