Europe’s Social Reality

1. Europe’s Social Reality Frédéric Lerais Bureau of European Policy Advisers Brussels, 8 May 2007

2. What does the report do? 1. Discussion paper on ‘Europe’s Social Reality’ to stimulate debate • Citizen’s agenda (10th May Communication) • Not a Commission policy statement or official consultation paper • Consultation runs for the rest of the year 2007 • No hidden agenda on the part of the Commission • No presumption of bigger role for Brussels 2. Analyse social well-being across EU27 • Beyond Growth and Jobs : the social condition of Europeans • Various studies on well-being • OECD, WB…; • Analysis of the factors behind • Jobs, family, health, etc. • Do MS, for all their diversity, face common challenges?

3. Happiness indicators Apparent happiness throughout Europe

4. Contrasted anticipated futures for generations to come Anticipated life for future generations

5. 1. Trends 1.1 5 Important trends Social changes are driven by : • Globalisation but also by numerous internal factors • Rapid transformation to a knowledge and service economy; • Development of Welfare State: new opportunities & new dependencies; • Demographics, Gender equality, and changing family; • Mass affluence and the individualization of values.

6. 1. TrendsGlobalisation is driving social change in Europe • Some loss of low skilled jobs subject to new international competition; • Some ‘delocalization’ – but not as much as people think and often; • Some outsourcing; • Increased migratory pressures; • Intense pressure on energy and natural resources: need to tackle climate change.

7. 2.Towards a knowledge and service economy Fast shifts in occupational structure In EU15; 2/3 of all jobs in services (EU15); 40% work in 'knowledge sectors' Between 2000 and 2004: 1.7m fewer industrial jobs; 1.1m fewer agricultural jobs; 8m more service jobs. 50% of jobs demand high cognitive and/or personal skills; • Two thirds of new jobs are skilled; • Bleak prospects for unskilled: unemployment rate three times higher than for graduates. • 1 in 3 of the EU workforce is unskilled; • 1 in 6 still leaving school without skills; • Educational performance, particularly attainment of intermediate skills, in decline in some MS; • Problems for low skilled losing jobs in mid-life.

8. 3. Welfare state Impacts Outcomes • Better health services and pensions plus the abolition of absolute poverty increasing life expectancy. • Dramatic European achievement in terms of life expectancy 43.5 (1900); 75.5 (2000), 82 (2050) But, rise in dependency: • among 55-64 year olds over 40% of men and 60% of women have dropped out of the labour market; Persistence of relative poverty: • 1 in 6 over 65s – 12 million of 72 million pensioners –at risk of poverty. • 1 in 5 children– 18 million of the EU’s 94 million children • Single parent families: 4.4% of all EU households; • Jobless households, 60% at risk of poverty; • and rising in several MS

9. Pessimism about of welfare systems Expensive but worth it 'For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Our social welfare system…' Answers 'It applies to…' – EU 25

10. 4. Demographic changes 4.1 Declining fertility and ageing • A fertility well below sustainable levels (2,69 (60’s) to 1,5) • Biggest recent falls in fertility in southern Europe and new Member States • Fertility rates higher in MS with better childcare, easier maternity and paternity leave and greater availability of part time work • Women with jobs now more likely to have children • Supporting the 'dual earner' couple now the prime task of family policy Some consequences • Age related expenditures rise by 2.5% of GDP by 2030 and 4.3% by 2050; • 28% of over 70s currently live alone; 40% of over 80s; • Up to two thirds of over 75 dependent on informal care; • Extended families weakening care for elderly at same time as to stay at work longer; • Yet (mainly) women carers under pressure.

11. 4. Demographic changes4.2 Migration can be source of new labour supply Profound impact • Birmingham or Marseilles made up of more than 1/3 of minorities; • 'Non-native Dutch population' forecast to be 14% of total population by 2020 – but 50% population of Amsterdam and Rotterdam; • This diversity enriches Europe: migrant contribution to diet, sport, social welfare and public services; Big problems of social integration remain. • Discrimination, especially in labour market • Poor educational attainment • Problems of perception • 60% of Europeans believe there are limits to how many people of minorities, other religions or cultures a society can accept ( 25% reject multiculturalism) • Strong economy and Social Model is no guarantee of integration (Denmark); • Debate and dialogue on common obligations of citizenship.

12. The question of immigration 'For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree.' Answers 'Tend to agree' – EU 25

13. 5. Mass affluence and individualization Material needs increasingly satisfied • New consumer demands for leisure, fitness, tourism, style; • New occupations driving Europe's transformation to a knowledge and service economy; • Information empowerment: demand for more personalized and consumer accountable public as well as private services; • Growth of self-health; • Increasing consciousness of risk Changes in value • Increasing secularization/ decline of religious belief; • Decline in ‘social capital’/ civic engagement/ trust in politics; • Greater personal freedom; tolerance of diverse sexuality and lifestyles. • Changes in family composition

14. To sum up All in All, Europeans should be optimistic about the EU's ability to prosper in a Global Age Critical common challenges : • Education and skills in the knowledge economy : in some Member States educational performance in decline; • Generational inequity due to demographic change. • Europe needs more migrants : but considerable problems of social integration in many Member States; • Risks of social polarization : increasing poverty and inequality; declining social mobility; high level of child poverty.

15. Web-site • For more information, • to read the full BEPA report • to follow the public consultation visit http://ec.europa.eu/citizens_agenda/social_reality_stocktaking/index_en.htm