New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based Decisions

1. 2 New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based Decisions • Prospect ~ Alternatives • Fire Fighter Exposure Budget -- Hour/Days • Course Of Action – Strategy To Be Implemented

2. 3 Principles of an HRO : • Watch for Weak Signals of Failure • Suspicious of Simple Interpretations • Focus on Ongoing Operations • Capacity for Flex and Bounce Back • Locate and Defer to Expertise Photo by Tom Iraci 1 Respectful Interaction – Trust, Honesty, And Self Respect 2 Three Components of A Safe And Productive Unit Risk Mgt 2 Safety Culture Respect feedback Be a student Flexible Learning Reporting Fair or Just Rules don’t and can’t cover every situation Be willing to share concerns Version # 3 (HRO = Highly Reliable Organization)

3. Regional Forester Representative Team Regional Forester Representative Team 2 Strategic Risk Assessment (SRA) During an incident……. From the Agency Administrator Perspective Helps Us Successfully Manage Risk During A Wildland Fire

4. 2 What Is Successful Mgt of Risk? Safely Managing Inherent Risks In A Manner That Meets Reasonable Objectives With Least Exposure To Incident Responders.

5. 2 Risk Hazards Undesirable Outcome Probability And Severity Of An Undesirable Outcome Linked To Hazards.

6. 2 Exposure Aviation Fire Fighters Be Cognizant Of Moving Risk To Private Sector Public Exposing Fire Fighters To Hazards That May Result In Injury Or Possibly Death

7. 2 Three Levels of Risk Management Time Data Decision Space • Decision (COA) • Strategic Strategic Risk Assessment Unit • Deliberate IMT Time Critical Operational COA = Course Of Action

8. 2 Outline For Strategic Risk Assessment Preseason Work 1 Corporate Scale 10 See Template Handout • Risk Assessment • Risk Analysis • Risk Communication • Risk Sharing Risk Decision (COA) Periodic Assessment COA = Course Of Action

9. 2 Risk Assessment • RAVAR – Rapid Assessment Values At Risk • Natural Resources • FSPro – Fire Spread Probability • RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process • What Values Are At Risk? • What Is The Likelihood Of Harm? • What Are The Consequences Of Harm? • What Are The Potential Benefits? • Etc

10. 2 Risk Analysis FF = Fire Fighter • What Are Your Objectives? • What Alt Offers The Best Tradeoffs? • How Much FF Exposure Will Be Required? • What Are The Tradeoffs Of FF Exposure, Impacts to the Public, Political Fallout, and Impacts to Natural Resource?

11. 2 Risk Communication • Have Stakeholders Been Consulted? • Has Risk Assessment & Analysis Been Shared? • Are Stakeholder’s Reactions Documented? • Understanding • Degree Of Acceptance • Degree Of Support • Reactions • Concerns

12. 2 Risk Sharing • Dialogue Draft Decision With Oversight Officials • Risk Assessment • Risk Analysis • Risk Communication • Example, Engagement with: • Regional Forester • Political

13. 2 Risk Decision SRA • Assessment • Analysis • Communication • Sharing • Decision FF = Fire Fighter WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System • Using Results From: • Risk Assessment • Risk Analysis • Risk Communication • Risk Sharing • Document The Formal Risk Decision: • Objectives: State Overall Objectives for Managing Wildfire • Decision: Course Of Action To Implement Desirable Prospect • Rationale: • Best Protects Life and Property • Minimizes FF Exposure Required To Meet Objectives • Reasonably Safe For FF To Implement • Periodic Assessment: Document Your Intentions To Monitor.

14. 2 Strategic Risk Assessment Summary: • Defines Objectives • Documents Decision and COA • Guides Deliberate & Time Critical Risk Assessment • Provides Documentation For FLAME Act Time Data Decision Space • SRA (Unit) SRA • Assessment • Analysis • Communication • Sharing • Decision • Deliberate (IMT) Time Critical (Operational) COA = Course of Action WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System

15. Making SRA Value Added • Gather: • Line Officer • Fire Management Officer • Resource advisor(s) • Recorder Discuss elements of SRA: Assessment Analysis Communication Sharing • Recorder: • Documents Discussion Using SRA Template • Paste into WFDSS Periodic Assessment

16. 2 Change is coming in FY11 Early Warning Alert!

17. 2 National Changes For Funding Large WF Stems From Past Expenditures On Managing Wildfires & Impacts On Agency Budgets. Culminating In: Among others things: For Type 1 And 2 Incidents, The Forest Service Requires Agency Administrators to Develop and Document Their Risk Management Decision, i.e. Follow SRA Process

18. 2 Fire Suppression Funding Changing - 2011+ (Continued) Preparedness CR? • Rebased To Reflect Actual Expenses Regional Suppression Accounts • Based On 5 Yr Moving Average • Initial Attack and Extended Attack • RF’s Accountable ? FLAME Act Fund • Reimburses T1 & T2 Fires • Secretarial Concurrence Based On SRA • Decisions Not Receiving Concurrence, Funded In Dispute Contingency Reserve Fund • Requires A Presidential Declaration • Audit Trail Of Risk Decisions Made For Type 1 And 2 Fires Is Used For Declaration

19. 2 How SRA Will Be Used 2011 Continue with SRA 2010 We Practiced Type 1 & 2 Fires SRA FLAME Act FF safety • Assessment • Analysis • Communication • Sharing • Decision

20. Lets Have A Conversation ReflectionsCommentsConcerns