Project Performance & Risk Management

1. Project Performance & Risk Management Aesook Byon, Deputy Project Director NSLS-II PAC Meeting March 29-30, 2012

2. Outline • Cost, Schedule, & Project Performance • Comprehensive EAC • Risk Update • Conclusions

3. Cost Baseline TPC $ 912 M Baseline Cost (Planned work)$ 828 M Contingency $ 84 M Completed work (Feb ‘12) $597M (72% complete) Committed work-to-go $72M Uncommitted work-to-go $159M Remaining work ($231M) • Contingency ($84M): • 36% of remaining work • 53% of uncommitted work-to-go

4. Cost Baseline ($M) • $109M Contingency utilization since CD-2 approval • $33M for additional labor (15% increase from CD-2 Baseline, $225M) • $40M for Materials & Services (8% increase from CD-2 Baseline, $494M) • $36M for scope enhancements/additions • Cost performance:12% ($73M/$597M) over baseline plan

5. Contingency spending history (Mar ‘08 – Feb ‘12) ($K) total (per month) w/o scope addition (per month) 3/08-2/12 $109M ($2.2M)$73M ($1.5M) FY2008 $12M ($1.5M)$5M ($0.6M) FY2009 $17M ($1.4M)$17M ($1.4M) FY2010 $33M ($2.7M)$20M ($1.7M) FY2011 $39M ($3.3M)$23M ($1.9M) FY2012 $7M ($1.4M)$7M ($1.4M) Spending category: labor/space $33M (30%) M&S $40M (37%) scope additions $36M (33%)

6. Schedule Float & Critical Path Critical Path: through Accelerator installation & commissioning • 35mm Dipole magnet production delivery  girder assembly/installation  Storage Ring commissioning without ID SR integrated test with ID scope beyond KPP (“schedule contingency”) Commission SR w/o ID June ‘13 – Oct ’13 Met KPP for accelerator systems Install ID Nov ‘13 – Dec ’13 Commission SR w/ ID Jan ’14 – Apr ’14 Early Project Completion, June 2014 (Lv 1 Milestone) • Currently projected early completion day is April 2014 • Baseline Level-1 milestone date with built-in schedule float (~2 months) • “Spent” 7 weeks schedule float over past 33 months (<3% increase) CD-4, Start of Operations, June 2015 • 14 months after the projected early completion date 6 month extra credit activity

7. Magnet Production & Installation Schedule Met KPP for Accelerator Extra credit activities CD-2 Baseline schedule Current baseline Current projection (schedule EAC) Sectional commissioning without beam

8. Cost, Schedule & % completion Overall project : 72% complete as of Feb ‘12 with CPI = 1.01 & SPI = 0.96 • Impressive amount of work ($238M) completed since last PAC meeting • was 46% complete at Jan 2011 and now 72% at Feb 2012 (w/ additional LOB’s & other scope additions) • We are maintaining our momentum into 2012 • Expect to complete ~90% of current baseline by January 2013

9. CPI = 1.01 SPI = 0.96 We are now near the shoulder

10. Monthly Burn Rate ($M) Cumulative ($M) Monthly Apr 2013

11. Estimate at Completion (EAC) General Principles Aggressively pursue accurate EAC information as a management tool Estimates that are good projections (~50%<probability<~90%) but still can be managed Managing to the baseline. Contingency spending is not a routine solution 2011 Annual comprehensive assessment conducted over Sep – Dec ’11 Review of all activities through project completion date, especially labor estimate Bottom line: EAC was $24.4M over BAC (~$13M for Accelerator Systems) $13.4M M&S $7.7M TEC labor (~31 FTE-year) $3.3M OPC labor (~13 FTE-year) Risk was $30M, including $12.2M for additional labor $17.8M M&S $5.5M TEC labor (~22 FTE-year) $6.7M OPC labor (~27 FTE-year) EAC $24.4M 44 FTE 93 Total FTEs Risk $30.0M 49 FTE

12. Comprehensive EAC (Dec 2011) EAC Total $24.4M ~ $4M PCRs approved since then

13. Staffing Allocated in EAC + Risk ~35% increase Total Cumulative FTEs: CD-2 Baseline 1,188 today 1,467 (>23% increase) • Increase in staffing for accelerator, beamline engineering, construction management (oversight, ESH, QA) and project support (procurement, HR, project control) • Sufficient staffing allocated for all activities through FY12 • Accelerator Systems increased from 554 at CD-2 to 717 FTE now (>29% increase) • 35% increase (90 FTE) for remaining years captured in EAC and Risks • Continue to evaluate details in commissioning & pre-ops 139 Staff at 9/08 139 Staff at 9/08 80 Staff at 9/07 80 Staff at 9/07 20 Staff at 9/06 20 Staff at 9/06

14. Risk Update • Recent Updates (ratings or $ estimates reduced) • SR magnet production • Insertion Device production • Beamline enclosures & controls system • Construction safety • To be retired soon: Changes in requirements for conventional facilities • Interface of 2 contractors on Ring Building site

15. Summary of Risks - Mar 2012

16. Risk & Contingency History Risk was 66% of contingency Enlarged LOBs & 500 mA capability LOB 4&5 shells Ring Building contract Risk is 33% of contingency

17. Contingency Tracking To Date Now ~36% Jan 2013 > 90%

18. Cost Baseline, Contingency, and Risks Burdened & Escalated Planned work $828M Completed work $597M Committed work-to-go $72M Uncommitted work-to-go $159M EAC ($20M) + Risks ($28M) $48M 25% of Uncommitted Work-to-go $40M Available Contingency $84M

19. Pre-ops activities start to ramp up in 2012 Expect to need large fraction of $10M OPC contingency to cover additional labor resource needed for integrated testing in FY12, FY13 and FY14 We requested to DOE to pull-forward most of $5M OPC from FY15 to FY14 Significant risk for delay in project completion date without pull-forward of FY15 funding Project Funding

20. Overall Performance On Schedule and On Budget wrt Baseline Excellent technical, cost & schedule performance to date Maintaining sound cost baseline with healthy remaining contingency Aggressively driven internal schedule Continue to execute technically limited schedule since June 2009 Negative schedule variances in specific areas: well understood and actively managed Lost fair amount of built-in schedule float for accelerator installation and beamline component procurement Risks and EAC well understood, tracked and managed A number of major risks (technical, cost & schedule) continue to retire or reduce ratings We are in the final home stretch of peak activity period with much excitement ahead