Offender Population Forecasting in Virginia

1. Offender Population Forecasting in Virginia

2. Background - Studies by JLARC in 1980s • Staff of the Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population. • A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process toward a more open, participative process. • “The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.” Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)

3. Background - Consensus Forecasting • A more open, participative forecasting process was implemented in the late 1980s and remains in use today. • This process is known as “consensus” forecasting. • The Secretary of Public Safety oversees this annual process.

4. Authorization – Appropriation Act

5. Committee Structure • Technical Advisory Committee • Members include personnel from various state agencies who have expertise in statistical and quantitative methods. • Technical/Policy Liaison Work Group • Members include staff of House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees as well as agency deputy directors and senior managers. • Policy Advisory Committee • Members include policy makers and other decision makers who administer the criminal justice system.

6. Technical Advisory Committee Membership • Department of Corrections (DOC) • Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) • Department of Planning and Budget (DPB) • Department of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS) • Compensation Board (CB) • Supreme Court of Virginia (SCV) • Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission (VCSC) • Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) • VCU Economics Professor • Chairperson selected by the Secretary of Public Safety Meredith Farrar-Owens (2006-2008)

7. Policy Advisory Committee Membership • Secretary of Public Safety • DOC Director • DJJ Director • DPB Director • DCJS Director • Virginia Parole Board Chair • Virginia State Police Colonel • Compensation Board Executive Secretary • Supreme Court of Virginia • Commonwealth’s Attorney • Sheriff • Police Chief • Members of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees • Members Senate and House Courts Committees

8. Four Inmate Population Forecasts Produced • State-responsible (SR) inmate population • Population housed in DOC prison facilities • State-responsible inmates housed in jails • Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population • Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and federal prisoners) • Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population • Juvenile detention home (JDH) population

9. Technical Advisory Committee • Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models. • Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels. • The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. • The forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group. • The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.

10. Technical-Policy Liaison Work Group • The Work Group reviews the projections proposed by the Technical Committee. • The Work Group can request additional data or analysis as needed. • The Work Group selects which forecasts the Policy Committee should consider.

11. Policy Advisory Committee • The Policy Committee reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population. • This Committee also considers the effects of recent trend shifts and newly adopted legislation. • The committee can approve adjustments to the forecast to account for the impact of such changes, as it deems appropriate.

12. Local-Responsible Population

13. Local Responsible Jail Population FY1999-FY2008 FY2008 Forecast Actual Local-Responsible Population Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported. Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008)

14. Local-Responsible Prisoner Population Growth -1.7% +8.3% +5.1% +4.4% +5.1% +5.1% +2.7% +7.5% +7.2% Note: Data are based on the average population for each fiscal year reported. FY2006 & FY2007 figures have been revised to reflect the most recent data available. Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008)

15. Felony Defendants in Circuit Court • Following growth of 9.5% in 2006, the number of felony defendants grew by 3.5% in 2007. Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)

16. Misdemeanor Cases Concluded in Virginia’s General District Courts • Misdemeanor cases (including criminal traffic misdemeanors) concluded in general district court increased by 2.7% in 2006 and 2.5% in 2007. Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)

17. Forensic Analysis Caseload and End-of-Year Backlog • The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases. • Between FY03 and FY06, the drug case backlog increased 371%, while the backlog for all other cases combined increased 30%. • Between FY06 and FY08, the drug case backlog decreased by 90%, while the backlog for all other cases combined decreased 30%. Note: FY2008 figure reflects May 2008 backlog. Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary (January 2001-May 2008)

18. Proposed Local-Responsible Population Forecasts DCJS High DCJS Avg. DPB DCJS Low Historical

19. Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast Projected Historical Actual: Forecast:

20. Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

21. State-Responsible Population

22. FY2008 State-Responsible (SR) Forecast Accuracy FY2008 Official Forecast Note: Population data reflect end-of-month figures. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 31, 2008)

23. Offenders in Jail Awaiting Trial* on Felony Charges December 2007 08 • The number of defendants in jail awaiting trial on felony charges peaked in September 2006. • While there is typically a drop in November/December each year, this population declined through April 2008 before it rose again. * Data include offenders awaiting trial and those who have been sentenced for an offense but have additional charges pending. Source: Compensation Board (August 21, 2008)

24. Average Length of Stay for State-Responsible Releases No-Parole/Truth-in-Sentencing Parole System • Many offenders have received very lengthy sentences under the no-parole policy and remain incarcerated. These offenders are not included in the release data shown here. Note: Data for 1990 are based on fiscal year; 2000 and 2007 data reflect calendar year. Data for 2007 are preliminary. Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 22, 2008)

25. Impact of Truth-in-Sentencing on Prison Time Served Prison Time Served: Parole System v. Truth-in-Sentencing (in years) 34.2 Robbery with Firearm Rape 24 16.3 12.6 8.9 7.2 6.7 6.7 5.6 4.1 3.8 2.7 No Violent Prior Record Less Serious Violent Prior Record More Serious Violent Prior Record No Violent Prior Record Less Serious Violent Prior Record More Serious Violent Prior Record Parole System Truth-in-Sentencing

26. New Commitments to the Department of Corrections Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

27. Approved State-Responsible Forecast 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast Historical Forecast: Actual:

28. Approved State-Responsible Forecast Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 for each year.