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Discussion about two papers concerning the changing Arctic sea ice

Discussion about two papers concerning the changing Arctic sea ice. GEO6011Seminar in Geospatial Science and Applications Wentao Xia 11/19/2012. Bering Strait. Alaska. Chukchi Sea. Eastern Siberian Sea. Beaufort Sea. Canada. Russia. Laptev Sea. Canadian Archipelago. Arctic Ocean.

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Discussion about two papers concerning the changing Arctic sea ice

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  1. Discussion about two papers concerning the changing Arctic sea ice GEO6011Seminar in Geospatial Science and Applications Wentao Xia 11/19/2012

  2. Bering Strait Alaska Chukchi Sea Eastern Siberian Sea Beaufort Sea Canada Russia Laptev Sea Canadian Archipelago Arctic Ocean Fury and Hecla Strait Kara Sea Hudson Bay Baffin Bay Svalbard Greenland Barents Sea Greenland Sea Gorlo Strait White Sea

  3. Discussion to Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2010 Cavalieri D. and Parkinson C. (2012) The Cryosphere, 6, 881-889

  4. Data and method What data does this study used? • SMMR-Nimbus 7 (10/26/1978-08/20/1987) • SSM/I-DMSP F8,F11,F13 (07/09/1987-12/31/2007) • SSM/IS-DMSP F17 (01/01/2008-present)

  5. Technical specifications SMMR-Nimbus 7: Operating frequency: 6.60 GHz H/V, 10.69 GHz H/V, 18.00 GHz H/V, 21.00 GHz H/V and 37.00 GHz H/V Spatial, temporal, and radiometric resolution: 25 km*25km, 2 days, 16-bit

  6. Technical specifications SSM/I – DMSP: Operating frequency and corresponding spatial resolution (along track*cross track / meters): 19.35 GHz H/V 69*43, 22.235 GHz V 50*40, 37.00 GHz H/V 37*28 85.50 GHz H/V 15*13

  7. Technical specifications SSM/IS – DMSP: Operating frequency and corresponding spatial resolution (along track*cross track / meters): 19.35 GHz H/V 73*47, 22.235 GHz V 73*47, 37.00 GHz H/V 41*31 From 50.3 to 60.72 GHz (13 bands) 17.6*27.3 91.665 GHz H/V 14*13 150 GHz 14*13 183.311 GHz (2 bands) 14*13

  8. Data and method • Sea ice concentration: Matching different passive microwave record at geophysical product level • Sea ice extent: Area with ≥15% ice concentration (Atmospheric interference, low ice concentration, thin ice thickness) How sea ice extent is defined? Why?

  9. Northern hemisphere total

  10. Northern hemisphere total

  11. Northern hemisphere total

  12. Trend of ice extent by region

  13. Trend of ice extent by region

  14. Trend of ice extent by month and region

  15. Trend of ice extent by month and region

  16. Trend of ice extent in three periods:1979-1996, 1979-2006, 1979-2010

  17. Conclusion and further discussion What trend does northern hemisphere sea ice extent variation have? • Northern hemisphere ice extent variability showed a declining trend. • Trend is mostly pronounced in Arctic Ocean, and in summer. • Trend of declining rapidly increased during last decade. When and where the trend is strongest? What change does such trend have in recent years?

  18. Discussion to The changing Arctic sea ice cover by Perovich D. (2011) Oceanography 24(3):162-173

  19. Monthly northern hemisphere sea ice extent by passive microwave

  20. September ice extent abnormal -12.8%/decade Standard deviation=1.6%

  21. Ice age • First year ice survived through next September minimum is counted as multiyear ice. • Observation: Active microwave remote sensing and ice parcels tracking. • Difference: Multiyear ice tend to be thicker and more resilient to environmental forcing. How multiyear ice defined? How to observe ice age? What is the most important different between first and multi year ice?

  22. Sea ice age derived from drift tracking of ice floes, March

  23. Ice thickness • Related to ice age, proxy. • Field observation: with submersed upward looking sonar onboard nuclear submarine • Remote sensing: satellite altimetry • Lacking continuous pan Arctic sea ice thickness record Is there continuous sea ice thickness data record in Arctic?

  24. Arctic sea ice thickness by submarine sonar

  25. 2007 minimum event

  26. Explanation to 2007 extreme event • Preconditioning: loss of multiyear ice, decreasing of ice thickness • Advection of ocean heat through Bering Strait • Trans-Arctic drift to Fram Strait, and warm air inflow from Pacific by wind forcing • Ice-Albedo feedback What is ice albedo feedback? • Decrease in cloudiness – more impact on open water-warmer water-more bottom and lateral melting

  27. Linear trend of total solar heat input directly into the ocean, percent/year

  28. Air and water temperature dynamics by buoy deployed at Beaufort Sea, Aug 2006 - Sep 2007

  29. Conclusion from two presented papers What contribute most to the accelerating declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent, statistically? • Ice extent: Declining trend - mostly due to recent extreme summer minimum extent • Ice age and thickness: Declining - due to climate change • contributing to preconditioning • Extreme low summer minimum extent: • triggered by environmental forcing • triggers ice-albedo feedback • further enhancing preconditioning What is the relationship between the declining ice age/thickness and ice extnet? What role does ice-albedo feedback played in the process of sea ice declining?

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