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This presentation outlines the National Electricity Shortage Response Plan for South Africa, including facts and figures related to electricity demand vs. supply. It discusses the key drivers of unplanned outages and the achieved system balance. The plan includes demand reduction options, supply-side interventions, and timeframes for implementation.
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National Electricity Shortage Response PlanPresentation to PPC on Minerals ad EnergyMarch 2008
South Africa: Electricity Demand vs. Supply (Facts & Figures)
South Africa: 2006 vs. 2007Week-on-Week Peak Demand Year-on-Year Peak Growth = 4.90% (1 706 MW)
7 Year Forecast of Capacity Margin Note that this does not take into account any Demand Side Interventions or Demand Market Participation or Interruptible Loads (Figures from study done early-2007)
Security of Supply Crisis (January 2008)
January 2008: Supply/Demand Situation Historic Target for Unplanned was 3% or 1 176MW (01/2008 average = 11%) After Load Shedding
Key Drivers: Unplanned Outages • What is driving the high level of unplanned outages: • Coal Quality (less power output from station) • Coal Quantity (the export price is so high that the miners prefer to export the coal and pay the associated penalties) • Running Plant too Hard which results in equipment failure such as boiler tube leaks
What has been achieved System back into balance by: • Restoring a workable reserve margin, thereby, • Alleviating the strain on the generation assets and the primary energy supply chain, and, • Allowing “breathing space” for maintenance to be done.
GAP DEMAND ►Mitigation Plan • DSM • DMP If Demand + Reserve Margin> Supply (Demand includes capacity & energy) DEMAND REDUCTION OPTIONS • Intensified DSM • Power Rationing/Power Conservation • Dramatically increase Notified Maximum Demand penalties • Prioritisation of new load • Load shedding • Rolling blackouts Intervention Options Various Scenarios for growth and supply capacity SUPPLY ►Build Plan ►Mitigation Plan • RTS (’08/900MW) - Co-generation • Medupi (2011) - Imports • Ingula (2012) - Self generation • OCGT (2009) - Standby generation • CCGT - IPPs Reduce Demand
SUPPLY SIDE INTERVENTIONS (Normal) Currently approved projects *Projected
Supply Side Fast-tracking • Possible implementation of an additional 1 000MW of Gas-fired Power Plant within 12 months • Co-generation, new target is 3 500MW, from 900MW previously • Focus on the reduction of unplanned outages (maintenance practices) • Focus on the improvement of coal quality and supply • Introduction of 3 000MW of IPP Base-load by 2012
SUPPLY SIDE INTERVENTIONS (Fast-tracked) *Projected
7 Year Forecast of Capacity Margin (After Power Conservation and Fast Track Supply Side Interventions) Note: Demand Side Management Impacts are not included
Demand Side Intervention Plan Timeframes • Immediate (6 months) • Medium Term (18 months) • Long Term (more than 18 months)
Demand Side Interventions (Immediate) • Phased Demand Reduction • System Security Recovery/Load Shedding • Power Rationing – Fixed Scheduled Load Shedding (<4 Months) • Power Conservation Programme – Quota allocations (<24 months) • Demand Side Behavioural Change programs • Aggressive Energy Efficiency in Government and State-Owned Enterprises’ Buildings • Restrict Sale of Incandescent Lightbulbs • National Housing Specifications (Water Heating and Building Standards) • Solar Water Heating Programme • Intensive Consumer Awareness Campaign (proper Load Shedding communication as well as general energy savings)
Demand Side Interventions (Medium Term) • Residential Time-of-Use Tariffs • Residential Cooking Load to Gas • Traffic Lights to Solar • Public Lighting • Pro-poor Cost Reflective Tariffs • EIA Fast-tracking
Demand Reduction Phasing (Power Conservation)
Overall savings target Target 10% Constraint relief Growth allowance Quota allocations (DTi/DME) Designed to achieve overall target Differentiated by customer class Special cases @ 100% Penalty & Incentive scheme Penalty energy rates for energy > quota Cut-offs and/or “Name and Shame” for Repeat offenders Special cases excluded from penalties, initially at least Savings/technology incentives > overall target (only smaller consumers) Power Conservation Programme • Trading scheme • Unused portion of quota allocation • Only larger consumers (practical reasons) • Possible take-or-pay provisions • Built-in flexibility • Modular roll-out possibilities • Adjust quotas, penalties etc. (changing needs) • Estimated Yield • 23 000GWh per annum • ~3 500MW (75% Load Factor) • Implementation Timeframe • 02 April 2008 Inception • 24 month timeframe
Power Conservation ProgrammePenalty and Incentive Scheme • Penalty energy rates – for energy above quota • First month – 75 c/kWh (TOU differentiated where applicable) • Second month - +50% of above to max. of ~ 250 c/kWh • Disincentive – not to make money • Persistent repeat offenders: • “Name and Shame” and/or Cut-offs • Special cases excluded from penalties, initially at least • e.g. hospitals, traffic lights – to avoid disrupting essential services • For smaller consumers: • Look at inclining block tariff structures as disincentive • DSM technology-based incentives or savings incentives (if savings > overall target) • Baseline consumption period: Oct ’06 – Sep ’07 • Savings effort now will not influence allocation
Proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (1) • Requirements for water heating in commercial and residential buildings • Installation of an electric geyser that incorporates solar water heating in all new dwellings with a value exceeding R750 000 or greater than 300sqm in size. • Installation of additional geyser insulation in all new dwellings with a value exceeding R750 000 or greater than 300sqm in size. • These regulations in respect of water heating in commercial and residential buildings, will be in place not later than year 2010. • In addition, installation of an electric geyser that does not incorporate solar heating facility to office blocks, hostels, resorts and shopping complexes feeding from centralised water heating systems will be prohibited. • All electric geysers will be required to be fitted with a facility for the licensee to remotely control the supply of electricity to it.
Proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (2) • Prohibitions in respect of lighting • Use of incandescent lights • Lighting of unoccupied buildings especially after working hours • Lighting of streets and highways during broad day light • Disposal of lights that contain mercury in a manner which adversely impacts the environment • Prohibitions in respect of space heating, ventilation and cooling in commercial and residential buildings, to be completed not later than the year 2010 • Heating, ventilation and cooling system without a facility for the licensee to remotely control its supply of electricity • A swimming pool drive and heating system without a facility for the licensee to remotely control its supply of • Norms and Standards for reticulation services • All streets must be fitted with an energy efficient bulbs • A municipality may pass by-laws prohibiting any other activity in respect of energy efficiency complementing these regulations • End user or customer with monthly consumption of 500kWh and above must be on time of use tariff not later than the year 2010