Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR per gli impatti climatici

1. Il Progetto ADRICOSM-STAR per gli impatti climatici Antonio Guarnieri In collaborazione con i partners di progetto Ministry for the Environment, Land, and Sea

2. Genesis of ADRICOSM • At the World Summit on Sustainable Development of Johannesburg in September 2002,  ADRICOSM was accepted as a Partnership in the cluster of oceans/coasts/fisheries. • The Italian Ministry of Environment and Territory started an ADRICOSM Pilot Project in October 2001 to develop the monitoring and modelling of the Adriatic currents and ecosystem in order to detect changes and mitigate impacts • Other Projects will start in 2004 that will continue the ADRICOSM developments • The last of these projects is ADRICOSM-STAR: ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENT (funded by the Italian Ministry for Environment Land and Sea). Dec 2006 – Jun 2010

3. The Project’s Partners

4. The project working structure

5. Boka Kotorska Bay Bojana River and Skadar Lake Catchment Coastal Strip Ulcinj The areas of interest

6. Project main objectives • Continue and further develop the ADRICOSM forecasting system for the Adriatic Sea and its coastal areas with particular emphasis to the Montenegro coastal area. • Develop high resolution hydro-meteorological modelling for the large Montenegro area; • Design and partially implement a monitoring system for the surface water cycle and the water quality in the river and coastal area of Montenegro • Develop and validate modelling tools for the urban, surface, underground water and coastal currents in the Bojana river catchment and Montenegro coastal area • Produce downscaled IPCC climate change scenario projections to study impact on the water cycle and on the sediment transport in the Bojana river and the Montenegro coastal area

7. Numerical models of the atmosphere, marine and river hydrodynamcs, underground waters coupled to water quality and sediment transport Multidisciplinary Multi-platform Observing system (satellites, atmospheric and oceanographic stations, river, urban and underground water monitoring) Climate change scenario simulations coupled to regional/local models ADRICOSM-STAR water integrated monitoring and modelling approach input data to environmental managers and policy makers for EMERGENCY management and the PROTECTION of surface, underground, marine and urban waters

8. The main monitoring results Main procurement and new installations • 1 Water quality station in Bokakotorska Bay • 1 Water quality station along the Bojana River • 1 Hydrological station (Fraskanjel, with level and flow of the Bojana River) • 1 Hydrological and mareographic station (Bar) • 3 Meteorological stations (Bar, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj)

9. The main monitoring results In situ and remote activities • Consolidation of operational satellite monitoring and new operational TSM CDOM K490 Chl-a • Consolidation of VOS marine parameters and new meteorologiacal monitoring Jan 2009, Bari-Durres Temperature WIND WIND

10. The main monitoring results In situ activities • New mesoscale and seasonal cruises have been carried on along the coast of Montenegro Seasonal Surface Temperature NOV JAN MAY JUN • HR bathymetric and seismological campaigns carried out in the Bokakotorska bay and along the coastal area

11. Models integration ATMOSPHERE EBU-POM Flow at SK Lake HYDROLOGY RIVER HYDRAULICS MIKE11 HYPROM SSH at Bojana Bojana Flow & sediment transport T2m,U10m,V10m,CC,Pr,RelHum OCEANGRAPHY AREG SWAN

12. Atmosphere: scenarios comparison

13. Hydro-metereology: validation Dominio NMM a 12 km Ulcinj station Cumulated precipitation Year 2003 Podgorica station Flow,Year 2003 Ulcinj

14. Hydro-metereology: future scenarios

15. Fluvial hydraulics: Buna/Bojana river model Flow from Skadar Lake Flow from Drin River • Upstream boundary conditions: HYPROM modelled water flow time series from Skadar Lake and Drin River HPP dams flow • Downstream boundary condition: 2003 tide levels from oceanographic model Downstream boundary

16. Fluvial hydraulics:Present and future scenario Observed Yearly Mean= 646.78 mc/s (years1965-1985) Simulated Yearly Mean= 482.30 mc/s Simulated Mike11 OBS climatology (1965-1985)

17. Fluvial hydraulics: future scenario

18. Oceanography: comparison of scenarios WINTER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m) SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND CURRENTS (2m) Present (2003-2008) Future (2025-2030)

19. Oceanography: time evolution of basin mean surface temperature and salinity ECMWF EBU

20. Wave model: climate scenario results Number of sea storms in 1 year - 5 year average Sea storms duration – 5 year average Significant wave hight of the sea storm peak – 5 year average Standard deviation of the sea storms duration – 5 year average

21. ADRICOSM-STAR at work: the January 2010 flood event • Extreme rain falls from December last year until January 10th 2010, caused serious material damage. Great number of houses in the surrounding area of the Skadar Lake, the municipality of Ulcinj, have been flooded. Some 1100 persons or 245 households had to be evacuated Buna-Drin junction, Flood of January 2010

22. ADRICOSM-STAR at work: Water level from Fraskanjel station and from the circulation model Buna/Bojana River Water Level (cm) at Fraskanjel Main Flood Event

23. CONCLUSIONS • Adricosm-Star project has succesfully buit up a multidisciplinary monitoring/modeling integrated platform in the area of Montenegro • Climate change impact studies on the water resource have been carried on for the first time at a local regional scale in the Adriatic/Montenegrin area • This integration constitutes the foundations for the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for: • water level extremes early warning • climate change water resources scenarios in the 2020-2030