Modelling of Energy Efficiency Recommendations for the West

1. Modelling of Energy Efficiency Recommendations for the West David Von Hippel David Nichols For the Air Pollution Prevention Forum of the Western Regional Air Partnership AP2 Forum, 19-20 February 2002, Denver, CO TELLUS INSTITUTE

2. Purpose • To quantify the potential of achieving energy and demand savings by accelerating the market penetration of available efficiency technologies • Demand-side measures reduce energy users’ need for electricity from “grid” through efficiency and on-site CHP TELLUS INSTITUTE

3. Approach by Region • Savings, costs for energy-efficiency in WSCR (Interior West), and WSCP (OR/W. ID) built up from estimates for 20+ program types per region • Savings and costs for energy efficiency in CNV (CA/Las Vegas) estimated based on parameterization of a national (ACEEE) study TELLUS INSTITUTE

4. Characterizing Measures • Capital costs and energy use and other operating costs were gathered • Potential efficiency measures were compared with “standard” practices, e.g. installation of equipment typically used • Result: “incremental” measure costs and savings, i.e., relative to standard equipment TELLUS INSTITUTE

5. Achievability Assumptions • Greater market penetration of DSM implies financial incentives-- incentive costs were assumed and included • Also included were expenditures for administering marketing programs • Our assumptions are “heuristic” to motivate market penetration targets used • Some non-DSM initiatives TELLUS INSTITUTE

6. Residential Measures Included in Assessment TELLUS INSTITUTE

7. “Commercial” Measures Assessed TELLUS INSTITUTE

8. Industrial Measures Assessed TELLUS INSTITUTE

9. Measures Not Assessed • Load response and load management programs • Distributed generation without CHP • Renewable energy technologies • Gas energy efficiency measures • Transportation sector measures TELLUS INSTITUTE

10. Results, Energy Savings, All Regions TELLUS INSTITUTE

11. Results, Summer Peak Savings, All Regions TELLUS INSTITUTE

12. Results, Costs, All Regions TELLUS INSTITUTE

13. Results, Energy Savings, WSCR TELLUS INSTITUTE

14. Results, Summer Peak Savings, WSCR TELLUS INSTITUTE

15. Results, Costs, WSCR • Nominal Annualized Costs TELLUS INSTITUTE

16. Measure Cost Curve, WSCR TELLUS INSTITUTE

17. End-Use Emissions, WSCR (preliminary) TELLUS INSTITUTE

18. Energy Savings, WSCP TELLUS INSTITUTE

19. Summer Peak Savings, WSCP TELLUS INSTITUTE

20. Results, Costs, WSCP • Nominal Annualized Costs TELLUS INSTITUTE

21. Measure Cost Curve, WSCP TELLUS INSTITUTE

22. End-Use Emissions, WSCP (preliminary) TELLUS INSTITUTE

23. Results, Energy Savings, CNV TELLUS INSTITUTE

24. Results, Summer Peak Savings, CNV TELLUS INSTITUTE

25. Results, Costs, CNV TELLUS INSTITUTE

26. End-Use Emissions, CNV (preliminary) TELLUS INSTITUTE

27. Next Steps • Review results with AP2F comments • Contribute documentation to ICF Consulting report to AP2F • Level of detail needed for energy-efficiency write-up • Post-study: Work on implementation approaches TELLUS INSTITUTE

28. Potential Follow-on? • Prepare by-measure estimate for CNV • Similar to WSCR/WSCP analyses--but who would be the users/funders?) • Break down analysis by state? • Model energy efficiency as blocks of different sizes/costs within IPM? • Transfer energy-efficiency estimation capabilities to states? TELLUS INSTITUTE