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Australia’s next Defence White Paper An ASPI Update Peter Abigail

Australia’s next Defence White Paper An ASPI Update Peter Abigail. A maritime geo-strategic setting. ADF Primary Operational Environment. Australia’s ‘abiding strategic interests’. a secure Australia a secure immediate neighbourhood strategic stability in Asia-Pacific

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Australia’s next Defence White Paper An ASPI Update Peter Abigail

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  1. Australia’s next Defence White PaperAn ASPI UpdatePeter Abigail

  2. A maritime geo-strategic setting ADF Primary Operational Environment

  3. Australia’s ‘abiding strategic interests’ • a secure Australia • a secure immediate neighbourhood • strategic stability in Asia-Pacific • a stable, rules-based global security order

  4. The strategic environment challenges Australia’s: • Key strategic aspiration • Key strategic assumption • Key strategic enabler

  5. Implicit strategic objectives • Ensuring Australia’s strategic weight and role in the region • Managing shifts in US strategic primacy in the region • Sustaining adequate Defence funding

  6. What has changed since 2009? • China’s ‘charm offensive’ stumbled • US ‘awakening’: a recalibration of strategy and ‘re-invigoration’ of regional relationships • Australia has confirmed its strategic ‘choice’ • The Indian Ocean is getting more attention • Indonesia is starting to contemplate its future role • Arab ‘Spring’: too early to tell • Global Economic Crisis (Mk 2)? • Force 2030 will be late, anyway

  7. Eight questions leading to the next Defence White Paper • Does Australia seek security from Asia, security with Asia, or some selective combination? • What are the strategic implications of an extended global economic contraction? • What more can we do to maintain strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 15 years? • How can we best reassure the United States? • How should our Army be optimised? • Should Australia have a national capability to design, build, integrate and sustain bespoke submarines? • Does the ADF have the capacity to be parent services of bespoke advanced systems and capabilities? • What ADF capability, other than for current operations, is urgent?

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